Percentage Soccer Prediction



Today's Tips Ranked

Thu 2 Jul 2026 • by win probability

High Conf.
Croatia U19 vs Italy U19
Over 1.5 Euro U19 @1.24 2:00 pm
90%
prob
High Conf.
PPJ vs Kiffen
Over 2.5 Finland Kakkonen A @1.40 5:00 pm
80%
prob
High Conf.
Tartu Welco vs Viimsi
Over 2.5 Estonia Esiliiga @1.44 5:00 pm
80%
prob
High Conf.
Kuressaare vs Flora
Over 2.5 Estonia Meistriliiga @0.98 5:00 pm
80%
prob
Solid Pick
Vikingur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri
1 Iceland Besta deild karla @1.15 8:15 pm
60%
prob
Solid Pick
Raja Casablanca vs Hassania Agadir
1 Morocco Botola Pro @1.49 6:00 pm
50%
prob
Speculative
Thor Akureyri vs KR Reykjavik
2 Iceland Besta deild karla @1.31 6:00 pm
20%
prob

Tip Explainers

Click any question to see the data behind it

Croatia U19 vs Italy U19 Over 1.5
Our model assigns a win probability of 90% to this outcome. Historically, Over 1.5 tips have settled at 70.7% over the last 90 days (41 tips graded). This pick is priced at approximately @1.24. These factors together support the recommendation.
70.7% on Over 1.5 90% probability
Over the last 90 days, Over 1.5 tips have returned 29 wins from 41 settled tips (70.7%). This is below our site-wide average of 78.9%. The recommendation is still made but with reduced confidence weighting.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker after publication may also signal late information entering the market.
PPJ vs Kiffen Over 2.5
Our model assigns a win probability of 80% to this outcome. Historically, Over 2.5 tips have settled at 66% over the last 90 days (50 tips graded). This pick is priced at approximately @1.40. These factors together support the recommendation.
66% on Over 2.5 80% probability
Over the last 90 days, Over 2.5 tips have returned 33 wins from 50 settled tips (66%). This is below our site-wide average of 78.9%. The recommendation is still made but with reduced confidence weighting.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker after publication may also signal late information entering the market.
Tartu Welco vs Viimsi Over 2.5
Our model assigns a win probability of 80% to this outcome. Historically, Over 2.5 tips have settled at 66% over the last 90 days (50 tips graded). This pick is priced at approximately @1.44. These factors together support the recommendation.
66% on Over 2.5 80% probability
Over the last 90 days, Over 2.5 tips have returned 33 wins from 50 settled tips (66%). This is below our site-wide average of 78.9%. The recommendation is still made but with reduced confidence weighting.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker after publication may also signal late information entering the market.
Kuressaare vs Flora Over 2.5
Our model assigns a win probability of 80% to this outcome. Historically, Over 2.5 tips have settled at 66% over the last 90 days (50 tips graded). In Estonia Meistriliiga, our record stands at 57.1% over the same period. This pick is priced at approximately @0.98. These factors together support the recommendation.
66% on Over 2.5 80% probability 57.1% in Estonia Meistriliiga
Over the last 90 days, Over 2.5 tips have returned 33 wins from 50 settled tips (66%). This is below our site-wide average of 78.9%. The recommendation is still made but with reduced confidence weighting.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker after publication may also signal late information entering the market.
Vikingur Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri 1
Our model assigns a win probability of 60% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 76.7% over the last 90 days (360 tips graded). This pick is priced at approximately @1.15. These factors together support the recommendation.
76.7% on 1 60% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 276 wins from 360 settled tips (76.7%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 78.9%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker after publication may also signal late information entering the market.
Raja Casablanca vs Hassania Agadir 1
Our model assigns a win probability of 50% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 76.7% over the last 90 days (360 tips graded). In Morocco Botola Pro, our record stands at 37.5% over the same period. This pick is priced at approximately @1.49. These factors together support the recommendation.
76.7% on 1 50% probability 37.5% in Morocco Botola Pro
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 276 wins from 360 settled tips (76.7%). This is broadly in line with our site-wide average of 78.9%.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker after publication may also signal late information entering the market.
Thor Akureyri vs KR Reykjavik 2
Our model assigns a win probability of 20% to this outcome. Historically, 2 tips have settled at 81% over the last 90 days (79 tips graded). This pick is priced at approximately @1.31. These factors together support the recommendation.
81% on 2 20% probability
Over the last 90 days, 2 tips have returned 64 wins from 79 settled tips (81%). This is above our site-wide average of 78.9%, indicating this market performs particularly well in our analysis.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker after publication may also signal late information entering the market.

Public Results Record

Last 30 graded tips • updated after every result

76.7%
Accuracy
23
Won
7
Lost
0
Void
30
Total
DateMatchMarketOddsResult
30 Jun 2026Gold Coast Knights W vs Queensland Lions W
Australia NPL Queensland W
Over 1.5@1.13✓ Won
30 Jun 2026SD Raiders vs Sydney FC U23
Australia NPL NSW
Over 1.5@1.19✗ Lost
30 Jun 2026FK Liepaja vs Ogre United
Latvia Virsliga
1@1.30✓ Won
30 Jun 2026Azam vs Dodoma Jiji
Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara
1@1.27✓ Won
30 Jun 2026RFS vs BFC Daugavpils
Latvia Virsliga
1@1.17✓ Won
30 Jun 2026SER Caxias vs Anapolis
Brazil Serie C
1@1.50✗ Lost
30 Jun 2026Ivory Coast vs Norway
World Cup 2026
Over 1.5@1.28✓ Won
29 Jun 2026Odense vs Kolding
Club Friendly
Over 2.5@1.37✓ Won
29 Jun 2026Afturelding vs Aegir
Iceland D
1@1.25✓ Won
29 Jun 2026Al Arabi vs Al Fahaleel
Kuwait Premier League
1@1.21✓ Won

All results logged before kickoff. Void tips excluded from accuracy calculation.


Market Consistency Tracker

Rolling 30-day windows over 90 days • steadiest markets first

A high win rate is only part of the picture. This tracker shows whether each market delivers consistently or in streaks.

Over 1.5 avg 71% • range ±2.3%
Steady
73.7%
0-30d
70%
30-60d
69.2%
60-90d

Win rate has been consistent across all three rolling windows. Reliable market for planning.

1 avg 77.3% • range ±3.3%
Steady
81.3%
0-30d
75.8%
30-60d
74.7%
60-90d

Win rate has been consistent across all three rolling windows. Reliable market for planning.

Over 2.5 avg 64.9% • range ±3.9%
Steady
61.1%
0-30d
64.7%
30-60d
68.8%
60-90d

Win rate has been consistent across all three rolling windows. Reliable market for planning.

1X avg 76.3% • range ±4.3%
Steady
81.3%
0-30d
75%
30-60d
72.7%
60-90d

Win rate has been consistent across all three rolling windows. Reliable market for planning.

2 avg 80.5% • range ±6.8%
Variable
87.5%
0-30d
73.9%
30-60d
80%
60-90d

Some variation across rolling windows. Performance is directional but not uniform.

X2 avg 75% • range ±25%
Volatile
50%
0-30d
100%
30-60d
60-90d

Wide spread across rolling windows. Strong runs followed by weaker periods. Streak-dependent.

Steady = <=12pp spread. Variable = 13-25pp. Volatile = >25pp. Min. 5 tips per window.


Latest Winnings

30/06/26 Australia NPL Queensland W
Gold Coast Knights W vs Queensland Lions W
Over 1.5
@1.13
2-0
30/06/26 Latvia Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Ogre United
1
@1.30
4-0
30/06/26 Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara
Azam vs Dodoma Jiji
1
@1.27
2-0
30/06/26 Latvia Virsliga
RFS vs BFC Daugavpils
1
@1.17
3-1
30/06/26 World Cup 2026
Ivory Coast vs Norway
Over 1.5
@1.28
1-2
29/06/26 Club Friendly
Odense vs Kolding
Over 2.5
@1.37
2-1
29/06/26 Iceland D
Afturelding vs Aegir
1
@1.25
8-1
29/06/26 Kuwait Premier League
Al Arabi vs Al Fahaleel
1
@1.21
3-0
29/06/26 China SL Women
Guangxi Pingguo W vs Beijing Beikong W
2
@1.31
0-2
29/06/26 World Cup 2026
Brazil vs Japan
Over 1.5
@1.31
2-1

Win Rate Tracker

78.9%
Win Rate
Excellent
Last 30 Days · 185 settled tips
146
Won
39
Lost
@1.28
Avg Odds
+1%
ROI
18+ Please gamble responsibly BeGambleAware

How We Pick Every Market

DirectWinPredict covers eight distinct markets. Here is the exact process behind how each fixture is evaluated across all of them.

1
Direct Result Focus
We start with the most fundamental question: who actually wins this match? Every other market is built outward from that core analysis.
2
Goal Threshold Mapping
Each team's scoring and conceding pattern is mapped against Over 1.5, 2.5, and 3.5 thresholds separately, since these behave very differently match to match.
3
Double Chance Logic
Where outright result confidence is moderate but not high, we assess whether a Double Chance angle offers a safer, still-valuable alternative.
4
BTTS Pattern Check
Both Teams To Score is evaluated independently of the match outcome prediction, since a one-sided win does not always mean only one team scores.
5
Draw Probability Scan
Draws are notoriously underpriced by casual bettors. We specifically flag fixtures where historical draw frequency exceeds the market's implied probability.
6
Final Market Selection
Only after all markets are individually scored do we select the strongest one to publish as the headline tip for that fixture.
No prediction is guaranteed across any market. All tips are based on statistical analysis. Please gamble responsibly.

Performance by Tip Type

2 87.5%
28W / 4L · ROI +14.6%
1 81.3%
78W / 18L · ROI +4.8%
1X 81.3%
13W / 3L · ROI -6.6%
Over 1.5 73.7%
14W / 5L · ROI -8.6%
Over 2.5 61.1%
11W / 7L · ROI -14.4%
X2 50%
2W / 2L · ROI -42%

Market Comparison Matrix — Last 30 Days

Win rate across every market we cover. Use this to see where our analysis is strongest right now.

Home Win
80%
105W / 26L
Draw
75%
15W / 5L
Away Win
76%
41W / 13L
Double Chance
81%
13W / 3L
Over 1.5
74%
14W / 5L
Over 2.5
61%
11W / 7L
Over 3.5
No data yet
BTTS
No data yet

Monthly Performance Report

Mar 2026
77.5%
148W/43L
Apr 2026
75.5%
160W/52L
May 2026
74.5%
140W/48L
Jun 2026
78.9%
146W/39L

▲ Better than previous month   ▼ Lower   ▬ Similar


78%
30-Day Win Rate
71.4%
7-Day
146
Won
@1.28
Odds
+1%
ROI
185
Tips
Full Record


Why Percentage Soccer Prediction Is Your Fastest Route to Smarter Betting Picks

I’m not here to waste your time with fancy words or long stories that go nowhere. You want to know one thing: how to make better football picks. So let’s get straight to it.

Football betting doesn’t need mystery. What you need is clear math. That’s what percentage soccer prediction does. It takes all the facts about a match, which team plays better, who’s injured, the weather, fatigue, and shows you the real odds as numbers. Not hunches. Not guesses. Numbers.

How Percentage Soccer Prediction Actually Works

Here’s the straight path: You look at a match. You gather the facts. You do the math. You get a percentage. That percentage tells you if a pick is worth your money.

Let’s use a real example. Manchester City plays a tired team that just finished two games in three days. City hasn’t lost in eight matches at home. Their star midfielder is fit. The weather is clear. When you add all this up, percentage soccer prediction might show you “City wins: 78%.” That number came from real facts, not opinion.

Compare this to just watching the news and picking a team because the commentator said it’s good. That’s not a strategy. That’s gambling with your eyes closed.

The Real Reasons Bad Picks Happen

Most people who lose money on football betting skip work. They miss three key facts:

  1. Missing players change everything. When a team’s best goal scorer is injured, their chances drop fast. Percentage soccer prediction catches this. You input the player status, and the numbers shift right away.
  2. Tired legs cost games. A team playing three matches in eight days is not the same team that had a full week to rest. Their legs are heavy. They make mistakes. The percentage goes down.
  3. Weather matters more than people think. Heavy rain makes the grass wet and slippery. Fast-paced teams slow down. Teams that like to pass struggle. Percentage soccer prediction factors this in, so you see the real picture.

Percentage Soccer Prediction Stops You From Picking Blind

Here’s what happens when you don’t use it: You see a big team’s name. You think “they always win.” You pick them. Then they lost 2-0 at home to a small team that nobody expected to show up.

Why? Because you didn’t check the facts.

With percentage soccer prediction, you check everything:

  • Match winner odds – Who is most likely to win based on current form
  • Goals scored – How many goals will probably happen
  • Safe picks – Which matches have clearer outcomes
  • Team form – Are they playing well right now or badly
  • Head-to-head history – What happened last time these teams played
  • Home and away records – Do they play better at home or away

When you have all these facts as percentages, you see the true picture. A team might be famous, but if the numbers show only 35% chance to win, you know the risk is high.

Real Football Scenarios Where Percentages Save You

Scenario One: The Tired Champion

Liverpool plays their fourth match in ten days. They’re missing their second-best defender to injury. They play a fresh team with a full week of rest. Before checking percentages, you might pick Liverpool because they’re Liverpool. But the numbers might show: Liverpool 42%, Draw 28%, Opponent 30%. Now you see the truth. It’s a risky pick.

Scenario Two: The Home Giant

Bayern Munich at home has won 14 straight matches. You want to pick them automatically. But percentage soccer prediction shows the opponent’s defense has improved a lot. Bayern’s percentage drops to 61%. Still favored, but not certain. You pick them, but you know it’s not safe. You size your money correctly.

Scenario Three: The Weather Twist

A rainy day is forecast for match day. Team A loves short, quick passes. Team B plays slow, physical football. In normal weather, Team A would be 70% to win. But percentage soccer prediction sees the rain coming and adjusts to 55%. The weather changed the math.

Why Directwinpredict.com Gets This Right

At Directwinpredict.com, we don’t guess. We show you the numbers. You get to see exactly how we got each percentage soccer prediction. You see the facts we used. You decide if the pick fits your plan.

This is honest work. Not promises. Not “guaranteed wins.” Just straight math.

Your Action Right Now

Stop picking teams based on names or feelings. Start picking teams based on percentages.

Check Directwinpredict.com today. See how percentage soccer prediction changes your picks. See the facts behind each number. Bookmark the site. Use it before every match you pick.

Your money will thank you.