PENDING
Result: 1X — Shanghai Port to win or draw
DirectWinPredict China FA Cup Shanghai Port vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
S

Shanghai Port

Home Side
D L W W L
3W 5D 2L
VS
12:00 pm
China FA Cup
S
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
Away Side
L W L L W
4W 1D 5L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1X
Backing Shanghai Port to win or draw — Tuesday, 21st July 2026
Best Odds 1.12
Confidence 90%
Implied Prob 89.3%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1X — Shanghai Port to win or draw
1.12
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals90% BTTS — Yes75%
Implied Prob
89.3%
Based on 1.12 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+0.7%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
6.7%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
4
Shanghai Port
1
Draws
0
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
5
Meetings
60%
BTTS Rate
60%
Over 2.5
3.4
Avg Goals
Neutral Data Insufficient H2H data.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Shanghai Port
Metric
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
1.6
Goals For / Game
1.5
1.5
Goals Against / Game
1.6
10%
Clean Sheet %
10%
3-5-2
W — D — L
4-1-5
Win Rate Comparison
30%
40%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
S0
0-0 4.5%
0-1 6.8%
0-2 5.1%
0-3 2.5%
0-4 1.0%
0-5 0.3%
S1
1-0 7.2%
1-1 10.8%
1-2 8.1%
1-3 4.1%
1-4 1.5%
1-5 0.5%
S2
2-0 5.8%
2-1 8.7%
2-2 6.5%
2-3 3.2%
2-4 1.2%
2-5 0.4%
S3
3-0 3.1%
3-1 4.6%
3-2 3.5%
3-3 1.7%
3-4 0.7%
3-5 0.2%
S4
4-0 1.2%
4-1 1.9%
4-2 1.4%
4-3 0.7%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
S5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-1 (10.8%) 2-1 (8.7%) 1-0 (7.2%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · S=Home goals ↓   S=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Shanghai Port
Overall
4.5
Scoring
5.3
Defence
5.0
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
Overall
4.3
Scoring
5.0
Defence
4.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 23%
Home Win & BTTS No 8%
Draw & BTTS Yes 23%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 21%
Home Win & Under 2.5 9%
Draw & Over 2.5 21%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 28%
Away Win & Under 2.5 12%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
06.05.26SL
Shanghai Port1
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1
30.06.25SL
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1
Shanghai Port2
23.02.25SL
Shanghai Port3
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1
13.09.24SL
Shanghai Port2
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng0
05.05.24SL
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng0
Shanghai Port6
Recent Form
Shanghai Port
17.07.26SL
Yunnan Yukun2
Shanghai Port2
D
04.07.26SL
Qingdao West Coast2
Shanghai Port1
L
27.06.26SL
Henan Songshan Longmen1
Shanghai Port2
W
19.06.26FAC
Shanghai Second1
Shanghai Port2
W
29.05.26SL
Liaoning Tieren3
Shanghai Port2
L
23.05.26SL
Shanghai Port1
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger1
D
19.05.26SL
Chengdu Rongcheng0
Shanghai Port1
W
15.05.26SL
Shanghai Port2
Zhejiang Professional2
D
10.05.26SL
Beijing Guoan2
Shanghai Port2
D
06.05.26SL
Shanghai Port1
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1
D
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
18.07.26SL
Wuhan Three Towns2
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng0
L
11.07.26SL
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng3
Qingdao West Coast0
W
04.07.26SL
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger3
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng0
L
27.06.26SL
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng2
Chengdu Rongcheng3
L
19.06.26FAC
Shenzhen Juniors1
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng3
W
30.05.26SL
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng3
Qingdao Hainiu2
W
24.05.26SL
Shanghai Shenhua1
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng2
W
19.05.26SL
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1
Dalian Yingbo1
D
15.05.26SL
Henan Songshan Longmen1
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng0
L
10.05.26SL
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1
Shandong Taishan2
L
Shanghai Port (Home)
23.05.26SL
Shanghai Port1
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger1
D
15.05.26SL
Shanghai Port2
Zhejiang Professional2
D
06.05.26SL
Shanghai Port1
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1
D
25.04.26SL
Shanghai Port4
Wuhan Three Towns0
W
21.04.26SL
Shanghai Port1
Chongqing Tonglianglong2
L
04.04.26SL
Shanghai Port2
Yunnan Yukun1
W
15.03.26SL
Shanghai Port4
Qingdao West Coast1
W
07.03.26SL
Shanghai Port1
Henan Songshan Longmen2
L
01.03.26SC
Shanghai Port0
Beijing Guoan2
L
18.02.26CL
Shanghai Port0
Ulsan HD0
D
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (Away)
18.07.26SL
Wuhan Three Towns2
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng0
L
04.07.26SL
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger3
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng0
L
19.06.26FAC
Shenzhen Juniors1
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng3
W
24.05.26SL
Shanghai Shenhua1
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng2
W
15.05.26SL
Henan Songshan Longmen1
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng0
L
06.05.26SL
Shanghai Port1
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1
D
02.05.26SL
Zhejiang Professional2
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1
L
17.04.26SL
Chongqing Tonglianglong2
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng0
L
21.03.26SL
Qingdao West Coast1
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng0
L
06.03.26SL
Chengdu Rongcheng5
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Tuesday, 21st July 2026, Shanghai Port host Shenzhen Xinpengcheng at Pudong Football Stadium (Shanghai) in China FA Cup. We recommend Shanghai Port to win or draw as the standout selection.

Shanghai Port arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Shenzhen Xinpengcheng are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 1D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Shanghai Port, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Shenzhen Xinpengcheng's 0, with 1 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: shanghai port to win or draw at odds of 1.12 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this China FA Cup preview lives.

The home team strides in on 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Pudong Football Stadium (Shanghai), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 2 wins, 3 losses from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 1X, priced at @1.12, which the numbers settle at around 90%. The whistle goes at 12:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Shanghai Port vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng?
Our selection is 1X — Shanghai Port to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.12. Tip confidence rating: 90%.
What is Shanghai Port's current form?
Shanghai Port have won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Shenzhen Xinpengcheng been performing recently?
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Shanghai Port lead with 4 wins versus Shenzhen Xinpengcheng's 0, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
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