PENDING
Result: 1 — Santa Fe to win
DirectWinPredict Copa Colombia Santa Fe vs U. Magdalena
S

Santa Fe

Home Side
W L W D W
5W 3D 1L
VS
9:00 pm
Copa Colombia
U
U. Magdalena
Away Side
D D W L W
5W 3D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Santa Fe to win — Tuesday, 21st July 2026
Best Odds 1.33
Confidence 52%
Implied Prob 75.2%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Santa Fe to win
1.33
Over 1.5 Goals89%
Implied Prob
75.2%
Based on 1.33 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-23.2%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
5
Santa Fe
4
Draws
1
U. Magdalena
10
Meetings
30%
BTTS Rate
20%
Over 2.5
1.8
Avg Goals
Neutral Data Santa Fe won 5 of the last 10 meetings (4 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Santa Fe
Metric
U. Magdalena
1.8
Goals For / Game
1.7
0.9
Goals Against / Game
0.9
22%
Clean Sheet %
40%
5-3-1
W — D — L
5-3-2
Win Rate Comparison
56%
50%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
U0
U1
U2
U3
U4
U5
S0
0-0 7.1%
0-1 9.2%
0-2 6.0%
0-3 2.6%
0-4 0.8%
0-5 0.2%
S1
1-0 9.5%
1-1 12.4%
1-2 8.1%
1-3 3.5%
1-4 1.1%
1-5 0.3%
S2
2-0 6.4%
2-1 8.4%
2-2 5.4%
2-3 2.4%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.2%
S3
3-0 2.9%
3-1 3.8%
3-2 2.5%
3-3 1.1%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
S4
4-0 1.0%
4-1 1.3%
4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 0.3%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (9.5%) 2-1 (8.4%) 2-0 (6.4%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · S=Home goals ↓   U=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Santa Fe Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
U. Magdalena Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Santa Fe
Overall
6.6
Scoring
5.9
Defence
7.0
U. Magdalena
Overall
5.9
Scoring
5.7
Defence
7.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 26%
Home Win & BTTS No 15%
Draw & BTTS Yes 14%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 23%
Away Win & BTTS No 13%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 19%
Home Win & Under 2.5 22%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 12%
Away Win & Over 2.5 17%
Away Win & Under 2.5 19%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
14.09.25PA
Santa Fe2
U. Magdalena0
30.03.25PA
U. Magdalena0
Santa Fe1
20.08.23PA
U. Magdalena2
Santa Fe2
26.02.23PA
Santa Fe0
U. Magdalena0
25.09.22PA
U. Magdalena0
Santa Fe2
04.04.22PA
Santa Fe1
U. Magdalena0
20.10.19PA
Santa Fe2
U. Magdalena0
27.04.19PA
U. Magdalena3
Santa Fe1
07.08.05PA
U. Magdalena1
Santa Fe1
06.03.05PA
Santa Fe0
U. Magdalena0
Recent Form
Santa Fe
28.05.26COP
Penarol0
Santa Fe1
W
20.05.26COP
Santa Fe2
Platense1
W
17.05.26PA
Santa Fe1
Junior1
D
13.05.26PA
Santa Fe4
America De Cali0
W
10.05.26PA
America De Cali1
Santa Fe1
D
07.05.26COP
Santa Fe1
Corinthians1
D
03.05.26PA
Santa Fe3
Inter Bogotá1
W
29.04.26COP
Platense2
Santa Fe1
L
24.04.26PA
Dep. Pasto1
Santa Fe2
W
U. Magdalena
21.05.26PB
U. Magdalena0
Bogota0
D
17.05.26PB
Barranquilla1
U. Magdalena1
D
12.05.26PB
U. Magdalena3
Cartagena0
W
09.05.26PB
Cartagena2
U. Magdalena1
L
04.05.26PB
U. Magdalena2
Barranquilla0
W
27.04.26PB
Bogota1
U. Magdalena1
D
18.04.26PB
Atletico F.C.1
U. Magdalena3
W
13.04.26PB
U. Magdalena0
Inter Palmira2
L
09.04.26PB
U. Magdalena4
Envigado2
W
30.03.26PB
Ind. Yumbo0
U. Magdalena2
W
Santa Fe (Home)
20.05.26COP
Santa Fe2
Platense1
W
17.05.26PA
Santa Fe1
Junior1
D
13.05.26PA
Santa Fe4
America De Cali0
W
07.05.26COP
Santa Fe1
Corinthians1
D
03.05.26PA
Santa Fe3
Inter Bogotá1
W
19.04.26PA
Santa Fe5
Cucuta0
W
10.04.26COP
Santa Fe1
Penarol1
D
02.04.26PA
Santa Fe0
Llaneros1
L
23.03.26PA
Santa Fe2
Ind. Medellin1
W
15.03.26PA
Santa Fe1
Alianza1
D
U. Magdalena (Away)
17.05.26PB
Barranquilla1
U. Magdalena1
D
09.05.26PB
Cartagena2
U. Magdalena1
L
27.04.26PB
Bogota1
U. Magdalena1
D
18.04.26PB
Atletico F.C.1
U. Magdalena3
W
30.03.26PB
Ind. Yumbo0
U. Magdalena2
W
23.03.26PB
Cartagena2
U. Magdalena1
L
04.03.26PB
Barranquilla1
U. Magdalena3
W
28.02.26PB
Quindio1
U. Magdalena2
W
14.02.26PB
Leones1
U. Magdalena3
W
01.02.26PB
Orsomarso0
U. Magdalena1
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Tuesday, 21st July 2026, Santa Fe host U. Magdalena at Estadio El Campín (Bogotá) in Copa Colombia. We recommend Santa Fe to win as the standout selection.

Santa Fe arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from their last 9 outings.

U. Magdalena are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 3D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Santa Fe, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to U. Magdalena's 1, with 4 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: santa fe to win at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Copa Colombia preview lives.

The home team strides in on 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Estadio El Campín (Bogotá), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 1, priced at @1.33, which the numbers settle at around 50,30,20%. The whistle goes at 9:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Santa Fe vs U. Magdalena?
Our selection is 1 — Santa Fe to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 52%.
What is Santa Fe's current form?
Santa Fe have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 9 matches.
How has U. Magdalena been performing recently?
U. Magdalena have recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Santa Fe lead with 5 wins versus U. Magdalena's 1, with 4 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
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