PENDING
Result: Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
DirectWinPredict Icelandic Cup Fylkir vs Afturelding
F

Fylkir

Home Side
W W W L W
7W 0D 3L
VS
8:30 pm
Icelandic Cup
A
Afturelding
Away Side
W W W W W
8W 0D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals — Tuesday, 21st July 2026
Best Odds 1.38
Confidence 76%
Implied Prob 72.5%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.38
Over 2.5 Goals75% Over 1.5 Goals90% BTTS — Yes70%
Implied Prob
72.5%
Based on 1.38 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+3.5%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
12.8%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
1
Fylkir
1
Draws
1
Afturelding
3
Meetings
67%
BTTS Rate
67%
Over 2.5
4
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Over 2.5 in 67% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Fylkir
Metric
Afturelding
2.8
Goals For / Game
3.2
1.9
Goals Against / Game
1.1
20%
Clean Sheet %
20%
7-0-3
W — D — L
8-0-2
Win Rate Comparison
70%
80%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
F0
0-0 1.1%
0-1 2.8%
0-2 3.6%
0-3 3.1%
0-4 2.0%
0-5 1.0%
F1
1-0 2.2%
1-1 5.5%
1-2 7.0%
1-3 6.0%
1-4 3.8%
1-5 2.0%
F2
2-0 2.1%
2-1 5.4%
2-2 6.9%
2-3 5.8%
2-4 3.7%
2-5 1.9%
F3
3-0 1.4%
3-1 3.5%
3-2 4.5%
3-3 3.8%
3-4 2.4%
3-5 1.2%
F4
4-0 0.7%
4-1 1.7%
4-2 2.2%
4-3 1.9%
4-4 1.2%
4-5 0.6%
F5
5-0 0.3%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.9%
5-3 0.7%
5-4 0.5%
5-5 0.2%
Top Predicted Scores 1-2 (7.0%) 2-2 (6.9%) 1-3 (6.0%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · F=Home goals ↓   A=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Fylkir
Overall
7.0
Scoring
9.3
Defence
3.7
Afturelding
Overall
8.0
Scoring
10.0
Defence
6.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 33%
Home Win & BTTS No 14%
Draw & BTTS Yes 0%
Draw & BTTS No 0%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 37%
Away Win & BTTS No 16%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 35%
Home Win & Under 2.5 12%
Draw & Over 2.5 0%
Draw & Under 2.5 0%
Away Win & Over 2.5 40%
Away Win & Under 2.5 13%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
31.05.26D1
Afturelding5
Fylkir1
02.09.22D1
Afturelding0
Fylkir2
01.07.22D1
Fylkir2
Afturelding2
Recent Form
Fylkir
17.07.26D1
Fylkir4
Njardvik1
W
13.07.26D1
Vestri2
Fylkir5
W
03.07.26D1
Aegir2
Fylkir4
W
26.06.26D1
Fylkir0
Kopavogur2
L
21.06.26D1
Grotta2
Fylkir5
W
17.06.26D1
Grindavik0
Fylkir1
W
13.06.26CUP
Fylkir4
Grotta2
W
06.06.26D1
Fylkir1
Throttur3
L
31.05.26D1
Afturelding5
Fylkir1
L
27.05.26D1
Fylkir3
Leiknir0
W
Afturelding
16.07.26D1
Afturelding3
Leiknir2
W
11.07.26D1
Volsungur1
Afturelding6
W
03.07.26D1
IR Reykjavik0
Afturelding1
W
29.06.26D1
Afturelding8
Aegir1
W
26.06.26D1
Afturelding2
Njardvik0
W
21.06.26D1
Vestri2
Afturelding0
L
10.06.26CUP
Afturelding3
Stjarnan1
W
05.06.26D1
Kopavogur2
Afturelding1
L
31.05.26D1
Afturelding5
Fylkir1
W
27.05.26D1
Grindavik1
Afturelding3
W
Fylkir (Home)
17.07.26D1
Fylkir4
Njardvik1
W
26.06.26D1
Fylkir0
Kopavogur2
L
13.06.26CUP
Fylkir4
Grotta2
W
06.06.26D1
Fylkir1
Throttur3
L
27.05.26D1
Fylkir3
Leiknir0
W
18.05.26D1
Fylkir2
IR Reykjavik1
W
14.05.26CUP
Fylkir5
Hafnarfjordur0
W
04.05.26D1
Fylkir2
Vestri0
W
24.04.26D1
Fylkir3
Aegir0
W
02.04.26CUP
Fylkir2
KFA0
W
Afturelding (Away)
11.07.26D1
Volsungur1
Afturelding6
W
03.07.26D1
IR Reykjavik0
Afturelding1
W
21.06.26D1
Vestri2
Afturelding0
L
05.06.26D1
Kopavogur2
Afturelding1
L
27.05.26D1
Grindavik1
Afturelding3
W
18.05.26D1
Grotta1
Afturelding3
W
08.05.26D1
Leiknir0
Afturelding3
W
29.03.26CUP
IR Reykjavik2
Afturelding3
W
21.02.26CUP
Valur4
Afturelding0
L
29.01.26CUP
Akranes1
Afturelding2
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Tuesday, 21st July 2026, Fylkir host Afturelding at Fylkisvöllur (Reykjavík) in Icelandic Cup. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Fylkir arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Afturelding are travelling well, with a record of 8W 0D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Fylkir, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Afturelding's 1, with 1 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 67% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.38 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Icelandic Cup preview lives.

The home team strides in on 4 wins, 1 loss from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Fylkisvöllur (Reykjavík), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 5 wins from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is Over 2.5, priced at @1.38, which the numbers settle at around 80%. The whistle goes at 8:30 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Fylkir vs Afturelding?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 76%.
What is Fylkir's current form?
Fylkir have won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Afturelding been performing recently?
Afturelding have recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Fylkir lead with 1 wins versus Afturelding's 1, with 1 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 67%.
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