PENDING
Result: 1 — Pakhtakor to win
DirectWinPredict Uzbekistan Super League Pakhtakor vs Xorazm Urganch
P

Pakhtakor

Home Side
D D D W W
6W 3D 1L
VS
4:00 pm
Uzbekistan Super League
X
Xorazm Urganch
Away Side
L L D L W
2W 4D 4L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Pakhtakor to win — Tuesday, 21st July 2026
Best Odds 1.36
Confidence 63%
Implied Prob 73.5%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Head to Head Record
8
Pakhtakor
1
Draws
0
Xorazm Urganch
9
Meetings
33%
BTTS Rate
44%
Over 2.5
3
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Pakhtakor won 8 of the last 9 meetings (1 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Pakhtakor
Metric
Xorazm Urganch
1.9
Goals For / Game
0.8
1.1
Goals Against / Game
1.4
20%
Clean Sheet %
20%
6-3-1
W — D — L
2-4-4
Win Rate Comparison
60%
20%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
X0
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
P0
0-0 7.4%
0-1 7.1%
0-2 3.4%
0-3 1.1%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
P1
1-0 12.3%
1-1 11.6%
1-2 5.5%
1-3 1.8%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
P2
2-0 10.1%
2-1 9.6%
2-2 4.6%
2-3 1.4%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
P3
3-0 5.6%
3-1 5.3%
3-2 2.5%
3-3 0.8%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
P4
4-0 2.3%
4-1 2.2%
4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
P5
5-0 0.8%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (12.3%) 2-0 (10.1%) 2-1 (9.6%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · P=Home goals ↓   X=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Pakhtakor Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Xorazm Urganch Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Pakhtakor
Overall
6.9
Scoring
6.3
Defence
6.3
Xorazm Urganch
Overall
3.2
Scoring
2.7
Defence
5.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 31%
Home Win & BTTS No 21%
Draw & BTTS Yes 18%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 23%
Home Win & Under 2.5 29%
Draw & Over 2.5 14%
Draw & Under 2.5 17%
Away Win & Over 2.5 8%
Away Win & Under 2.5 10%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
23.10.25SL
Xorazm Urganch0
Pakhtakor1
25.05.25SL
Pakhtakor2
Xorazm Urganch1
18.04.14CUP
Xorazm Urganch0
Pakhtakor4
18.09.10SL
Pakhtakor3
Xorazm Urganch0
02.05.10SL
Xorazm Urganch0
Pakhtakor1
19.08.09SL
Pakhtakor2
Xorazm Urganch0
21.06.09SL
Xorazm Urganch1
Pakhtakor1
10.08.06SL
Xorazm Urganch1
Pakhtakor9
03.06.06SL
Pakhtakor1
Xorazm Urganch0
Recent Form
Pakhtakor
17.07.26SL
Pakhtakor1
Lok. Tashkent1
D
03.05.26SL
Termez Surkhon1
Pakhtakor1
D
28.04.26SL
Pakhtakor2
Nasaf Qarshi2
D
22.04.26SL
Buxoro0
Pakhtakor1
W
18.04.26SL
Pakhtakor4
Din. Samarkand2
W
13.04.26SL
Pakhtakor2
Mashal Muborak1
W
09.04.26SL
Neftchi Fargona0
Pakhtakor1
W
04.04.26SL
Pakhtakor3
OKMK1
W
20.03.26SL
Sogdiana2
Pakhtakor4
W
15.03.26SUC
Neftchi Fargona1
Pakhtakor0
L
Xorazm Urganch
16.07.26SL
Sogdiana2
Xorazm Urganch0
L
04.05.26SL
Xorazm Urganch0
Andijan3
L
29.04.26SL
Qizilqum0
Xorazm Urganch0
D
24.04.26SL
Xorazm Urganch0
Neftchi Fargona2
L
18.04.26SL
Mashal Muborak0
Xorazm Urganch1
W
14.04.26SL
Xorazm Urganch2
Kokand 19122
D
07.04.26SL
Lok. Tashkent1
Xorazm Urganch1
D
03.04.26SL
Xorazm Urganch2
Din. Samarkand1
W
18.03.26SL
Xorazm Urganch1
Bunyodkor2
L
11.03.26SL
Buxoro1
Xorazm Urganch1
D
Pakhtakor (Home)
17.07.26SL
Pakhtakor1
Lok. Tashkent1
D
28.04.26SL
Pakhtakor2
Nasaf Qarshi2
D
18.04.26SL
Pakhtakor4
Din. Samarkand2
W
13.04.26SL
Pakhtakor2
Mashal Muborak1
W
04.04.26SL
Pakhtakor3
OKMK1
W
10.03.26SL
Pakhtakor0
Navbahor Namangan2
L
27.02.26SL
Pakhtakor2
Qizilqum0
W
17.02.26CF
Pakhtakor3
Spaeri4
L
22.01.26CF
Pakhtakor1
Struga1
D
20.11.25SL
Pakhtakor1
Nasaf Qarshi0
W
Xorazm Urganch (Away)
16.07.26SL
Sogdiana2
Xorazm Urganch0
L
29.04.26SL
Qizilqum0
Xorazm Urganch0
D
18.04.26SL
Mashal Muborak0
Xorazm Urganch1
W
07.04.26SL
Lok. Tashkent1
Xorazm Urganch1
D
11.03.26SL
Buxoro1
Xorazm Urganch1
D
01.03.26SL
Nasaf Qarshi1
Xorazm Urganch0
L
14.02.26CF
Pribram1
Xorazm Urganch1
D
10.12.25SL
Buxoro1
Xorazm Urganch2
W
21.11.25SL
Andijan3
Xorazm Urganch2
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Tuesday, 21st July 2026, Pakhtakor host Xorazm Urganch at Pakhtakor Central Stadium (Tashkent) in Uzbekistan Super League. We recommend Pakhtakor to win as the standout selection.

Pakhtakor arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Xorazm Urganch are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 4D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Pakhtakor, who lead the head-to-head with 8 wins to Xorazm Urganch's 0, with 1 draws from 9 encounters. Both teams have scored in 33% of those meetings.

Our verdict: pakhtakor to win at odds of 1.36 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Uzbekistan Super League preview lives.

The home team strides in on 2 wins, 3 draws from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Pakhtakor Central Stadium (Tashkent), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 1, priced at @1.36, which the numbers settle at around 50,30,20%. The whistle goes at 4:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Pakhtakor vs Xorazm Urganch?
Our selection is 1 — Pakhtakor to win, priced at approximately 1.36. Tip confidence rating: 63%.
What is Pakhtakor's current form?
Pakhtakor have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Xorazm Urganch been performing recently?
Xorazm Urganch have recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Pakhtakor lead with 8 wins versus Xorazm Urganch's 0, with 1 draws across 9 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 33%.
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