PENDING
Result: Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
DirectWinPredict Conference League Qualifier Goteborg vs Levadia
G

Goteborg

Home Side
W L L L D
3W 2D 5L
VS
6:00 pm
Conference League Qualifier
L
Levadia
Away Side
W W W L D
8W 1D 1L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 1.5
Backing over 1.5 goals — Tuesday, 21st July 2026
Best Odds 1.18
Confidence 90%
Implied Prob 84.7%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.18
Over 2.5 Goals75% Over 1.5 Goals90% BTTS — Yes70%
Implied Prob
84.7%
Based on 1.18 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+5.3%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
34.4%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
Neutral Data No head-to-head data on record.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Goteborg
Metric
Levadia
1.4
Goals For / Game
3
2.4
Goals Against / Game
0.8
0%
Clean Sheet %
30%
3-2-5
W — D — L
8-1-1
Win Rate Comparison
30%
80%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
L0
L1
L2
L3
L4
L5
G0
0-0 2.2%
0-1 6.0%
0-2 8.2%
0-3 7.3%
0-4 5.0%
0-5 2.7%
G1
1-0 2.5%
1-1 6.6%
1-2 9.0%
1-3 8.1%
1-4 5.5%
1-5 2.9%
G2
2-0 1.4%
2-1 3.7%
2-2 4.9%
2-3 4.4%
2-4 3.0%
2-5 1.6%
G3
3-0 0.5%
3-1 1.3%
3-2 1.8%
3-3 1.6%
3-4 1.1%
3-5 0.6%
G4
4-0 0.1%
4-1 0.4%
4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.2%
G5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-2 (9.0%) 0-2 (8.2%) 1-3 (8.1%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · G=Home goals ↓   L=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Goteborg
Overall
3.6
Scoring
4.7
Defence
2.0
Levadia
Overall
8.3
Scoring
10.0
Defence
7.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Home Win & BTTS No 7%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 4%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 45%
Away Win & BTTS No 19%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 18%
Home Win & Under 2.5 6%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 3%
Away Win & Over 2.5 48%
Away Win & Under 2.5 16%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head

No data found.

Recent Form
Goteborg
17.07.26ALL
Goteborg2
Brommapojkarna1
W
12.07.26ALL
Malmo FF4
Goteborg0
L
05.07.26ALL
Goteborg1
AIK2
L
27.06.26CF
Goteborg1
HamKam2
L
18.06.26CF
Goteborg1
Valerenga1
D
31.05.26ALL
Vasteras SK4
Goteborg5
W
25.05.26ALL
Goteborg1
Mjallby1
D
19.05.26ALL
Orgryte2
Goteborg3
W
09.05.26ALL
Goteborg0
Hammarby1
L
04.05.26ALL
Djurgarden6
Goteborg0
L
Levadia
16.07.26UECL
Levadia5
Caernarfon0
W
09.07.26UECL
Caernarfon0
Levadia5
W
04.07.26ML
Narva1
Levadia3
W
28.06.26ML
Levadia1
Flora2
L
20.06.26ML
Levadia1
Kalju1
D
17.06.26ML
Nomme Utd1
Levadia2
W
13.06.26ML
Flora1
Levadia3
W
30.05.26ML
Tammeka0
Levadia1
W
24.05.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus1
Levadia6
W
17.05.26ML
Paide1
Levadia3
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Tuesday, 21st July 2026, Goteborg host Levadia at Gamla Ullevi (Göteborg) in Conference League Qualifier. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.

Goteborg arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Levadia are travelling well, with a record of 8W 1D 1L across 10 matches.

Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.18 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Conference League Qualifier preview lives.

The home team strides in on 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Gamla Ullevi (Göteborg), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is Over 1.5, priced at @1.18, which the numbers settle at around 90%. The whistle goes at 6:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Goteborg vs Levadia?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.18. Tip confidence rating: 90%.
What is Goteborg's current form?
Goteborg have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Levadia been performing recently?
Levadia have recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
No recent head-to-head data available.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.8 goals per game.
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