Statistics Soccer Prediction



Today's Tips Ranked

Tue 7 Jul 2026 • by win probability

High Conf.
Roskilde vs AB Copenhagen
Over 1.5 Club Friendly @1.13 5:00 pm
90%
prob
High Conf.
PAOK vs AEK Larnaca
Over 1.5 Club Friendly @1.17 5:00 pm
90%
prob
High Conf.
Charlestown Azzurri vs Westoin Bears
Over 2.5 Australia NPL Northern NSW @1.36 11:00 am
90%
prob
High Conf.
Germany U19 W vs Austria U19 W
Over 2.5 Euro U19 Women @1.46 7:00 pm
80%
prob
High Conf.
Legia vs Beer Sheva
Over 2.5 Club Friendly @1.48 1:00 pm
80%
prob
Solid Pick
Argentina vs Egypt
1 World Cup 2026 @1.40 5:00 pm
60%
prob
Solid Pick
UNA Strassen vs La Florita
1 Conference League Qualifier @1.31 6:15 pm
50%
prob

Tip Explainers

Click any question to see the data behind it

Roskilde vs AB Copenhagen Over 1.5
Our model assigns a win probability of 90% to this outcome. Historically, Over 1.5 tips have settled at 71.1% over the last 90 days (45 tips graded). This pick is priced at approximately @1.13. These factors together support the recommendation.
71.1% on Over 1.5 90% probability
Over the last 90 days, Over 1.5 tips have returned 32 wins from 45 settled tips (71.1%). This is below our site-wide average of 76.7%. The recommendation is still made but with reduced confidence weighting.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker after publication may also signal late information entering the market.
PAOK vs AEK Larnaca Over 1.5
Our model assigns a win probability of 90% to this outcome. Historically, Over 1.5 tips have settled at 71.1% over the last 90 days (45 tips graded). This pick is priced at approximately @1.17. These factors together support the recommendation.
71.1% on Over 1.5 90% probability
Over the last 90 days, Over 1.5 tips have returned 32 wins from 45 settled tips (71.1%). This is below our site-wide average of 76.7%. The recommendation is still made but with reduced confidence weighting.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker after publication may also signal late information entering the market.
Charlestown Azzurri vs Westoin Bears Over 2.5
Our model assigns a win probability of 90% to this outcome. Historically, Over 2.5 tips have settled at 69.2% over the last 90 days (52 tips graded). This pick is priced at approximately @1.36. These factors together support the recommendation.
69.2% on Over 2.5 90% probability
Over the last 90 days, Over 2.5 tips have returned 36 wins from 52 settled tips (69.2%). This is below our site-wide average of 76.7%. The recommendation is still made but with reduced confidence weighting.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker after publication may also signal late information entering the market.
Legia vs Beer Sheva Over 2.5
Our model assigns a win probability of 80% to this outcome. Historically, Over 2.5 tips have settled at 69.2% over the last 90 days (52 tips graded). This pick is priced at approximately @1.48. These factors together support the recommendation.
69.2% on Over 2.5 80% probability
Over the last 90 days, Over 2.5 tips have returned 36 wins from 52 settled tips (69.2%). This is below our site-wide average of 76.7%. The recommendation is still made but with reduced confidence weighting.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker after publication may also signal late information entering the market.
Germany U19 W vs Austria U19 W Over 2.5
Our model assigns a win probability of 80% to this outcome. Historically, Over 2.5 tips have settled at 69.2% over the last 90 days (52 tips graded). This pick is priced at approximately @1.46. These factors together support the recommendation.
69.2% on Over 2.5 80% probability
Over the last 90 days, Over 2.5 tips have returned 36 wins from 52 settled tips (69.2%). This is below our site-wide average of 76.7%. The recommendation is still made but with reduced confidence weighting.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker after publication may also signal late information entering the market.
Argentina vs Egypt 1
Our model assigns a win probability of 60% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 77.1% over the last 90 days (340 tips graded). In World Cup 2026, our record stands at 76.5% over the same period. This pick is priced at approximately @1.40. These factors together support the recommendation.
77.1% on 1 60% probability 76.5% in World Cup 2026
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 262 wins from 340 settled tips (77.1%). This is above our site-wide average of 76.7%, indicating this market performs particularly well in our analysis.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker after publication may also signal late information entering the market.
UNA Strassen vs La Florita 1
Our model assigns a win probability of 50% to this outcome. Historically, 1 tips have settled at 77.1% over the last 90 days (340 tips graded). This pick is priced at approximately @1.31. These factors together support the recommendation.
77.1% on 1 50% probability
Over the last 90 days, 1 tips have returned 262 wins from 340 settled tips (77.1%). This is above our site-wide average of 76.7%, indicating this market performs particularly well in our analysis.
Key team news is the most likely disruptor: confirmed absences of first-choice players, particularly the goalkeeper or main striker, can shift the probability significantly. Late lineup changes, pitch conditions, or updated injury reports published closer to kickoff should be checked before placing any bet. Odds movement at the bookmaker after publication may also signal late information entering the market.

Public Results Record

Last 30 graded tips • updated after every result

66.7%
Accuracy
20
Won
10
Lost
0
Void
30
Total
DateMatchMarketOddsResult
6 Jul 2026Super Nova vs Ogre United
Latvia Virsliga
Over 1.5@1.17✓ Won
6 Jul 2026Suduva vs Transinvest
Lithuania TopLyga
Over 1.5@1.23✗ Lost
6 Jul 2026CSR Espanol vs Mercedes
Argentina Primera C
1X@1.12✗ Lost
6 Jul 2026Portugal vs Spain
World Cup 2026
Over 1.5@1.19✗ Lost
6 Jul 2026Keflavik vs Fram
Iceland Besta deild karla
Over 2.5@1.39✓ Won
6 Jul 2026USA vs Belgium
World Cup 2026
Over 1.5@1.18✓ Won
6 Jul 2026U Catolica vs Mushuc Runa
Ecuador Liga Pro
1X@1.13✗ Lost
4 Jul 2026VPS vs Mariehamn
Finland Veikkausliiga
1@1.30✓ Won
4 Jul 2026Sandur vs HB Torshavn 2
Faroe Islands 1. Deild
1@1.30✗ Lost
4 Jul 2026Spain U19 vs Germany U19
Euro U19
Over 1.5@1.21✓ Won

All results logged before kickoff. Void tips excluded from accuracy calculation.


Market Consistency Tracker

Rolling 30-day windows over 90 days • steadiest markets first

A high win rate is only part of the picture. This tracker shows whether each market delivers consistently or in streaks.

1X avg 70.6% • range ±1.8%
Steady
69.2%
0-30d
70%
30-60d
72.7%
60-90d

Win rate has been consistent across all three rolling windows. Reliable market for planning.

1 avg 76.7% • range ±2.9%
Steady
80.4%
0-30d
75%
30-60d
74.7%
60-90d

Win rate has been consistent across all three rolling windows. Reliable market for planning.

2 avg 80.2% • range ±6.5%
Variable
82.1%
0-30d
72.7%
30-60d
85.7%
60-90d

Some variation across rolling windows. Performance is directional but not uniform.

Over 2.5 avg 70.6% • range ±7.3%
Variable
76.5%
0-30d
61.9%
30-60d
73.3%
60-90d

Some variation across rolling windows. Performance is directional but not uniform.

Over 1.5 avg 73.2% • range ±9.1%
Variable
61.9%
0-30d
80%
30-60d
77.8%
60-90d

Some variation across rolling windows. Performance is directional but not uniform.

Steady = <=12pp spread. Variable = 13-25pp. Volatile = >25pp. Min. 5 tips per window.


Latest Winnings

06/07/26 Latvia Virsliga
Super Nova vs Ogre United
Over 1.5
@1.17
1-2
06/07/26 Iceland Besta deild karla
Keflavik vs Fram
Over 2.5
@1.39
1-1
06/07/26 World Cup 2026
USA vs Belgium
Over 1.5
@1.18
1-4
04/07/26 Finland Veikkausliiga
VPS vs Mariehamn
1
@1.30
4-0
04/07/26 Euro U19
Spain U19 vs Germany U19
Over 1.5
@1.21
4-0
04/07/26 China Super League
Qingdao West Coast vs Shanghai Port
Over 1.5
@1.19
2-1
04/07/26 Argentina Primera Women
San Lorenzo W vs Independiente W
1
@1.21
2-0
04/07/26 Australia NPL Queensland
Queensland Lions vs Olympic FC
1
@1.37
2-0
04/07/26 Argentina Primera Women
Racing Club W vs Huracan W
1
@1.13
2-0
02/07/26 Morocco Botola Pro
Raja Casablanca vs Hassania Agadir
1
@1.49
2-0

Win Rate Tracker

76.7%
Win Rate
Excellent
Last 30 Days · 172 settled tips
132
Won
40
Lost
@1.28
Avg Odds
-1.8%
ROI
18+ Please gamble responsibly BeGambleAware

How We Pick Every Market

DirectWinPredict covers eight distinct markets. Here is the exact process behind how each fixture is evaluated across all of them.

1
Direct Result Focus
We start with the most fundamental question: who actually wins this match? Every other market is built outward from that core analysis.
2
Goal Threshold Mapping
Each team's scoring and conceding pattern is mapped against Over 1.5, 2.5, and 3.5 thresholds separately, since these behave very differently match to match.
3
Double Chance Logic
Where outright result confidence is moderate but not high, we assess whether a Double Chance angle offers a safer, still-valuable alternative.
4
BTTS Pattern Check
Both Teams To Score is evaluated independently of the match outcome prediction, since a one-sided win does not always mean only one team scores.
5
Draw Probability Scan
Draws are notoriously underpriced by casual bettors. We specifically flag fixtures where historical draw frequency exceeds the market's implied probability.
6
Final Market Selection
Only after all markets are individually scored do we select the strongest one to publish as the headline tip for that fixture.
No prediction is guaranteed across any market. All tips are based on statistical analysis. Please gamble responsibly.

Performance by Tip Type

2 82.1%
23W / 5L · ROI +7.6%
1 80.4%
74W / 18L · ROI +3%
Over 2.5 76.5%
13W / 4L · ROI +4.8%
1X 69.2%
9W / 4L · ROI -21.1%
Over 1.5 61.9%
13W / 8L · ROI -23.9%

Market Comparison Matrix — Last 30 Days

Win rate across every market we cover. Use this to see where our analysis is strongest right now.

Home Win
76%
96W / 30L
Draw
64%
9W / 5L
Away Win
78%
36W / 10L
Double Chance
69%
9W / 4L
Over 1.5
62%
13W / 8L
Over 2.5
76%
13W / 4L
Over 3.5
No data yet
BTTS
No data yet

Monthly Performance Report

Mar 2026
77.5%
148W/43L
Apr 2026
75.5%
160W/52L
May 2026
74.5%
140W/48L
Jun 2026
78.9%
146W/39L
Jul 2026
66.7%
18W/9L

▲ Better than previous month   ▼ Lower   ▬ Similar


76%
30-Day Win Rate
67.6%
7-Day
132
Won
@1.28
Odds
-1.8%
ROI
172
Tips
Full Record


Why Statistics Soccer Prediction Matters in Your Betting

I don’t waste time with fancy words. Here’s what you need to know: football matches have patterns. Real ones. And if you track them, you win more bets. That’s it. That’s the whole game.

Most people throw money away because they bet on feelings. They like a team’s shirt color. They had a good breakfast. They heard someone on TV talking loudly. None of that wins bets. Statistics soccer prediction does.

The Straight Talk on Statistics Soccer Prediction

When you look at raw data, actual numbers, not opinions, you see things. A team playing three matches in eight days gets tired. Their legs hurt. They can’t run as fast in the 70th minute.

A striker with an injured ankle takes longer to shoot. A defense missing two key players folds under pressure. Rain changes everything. Wind moves the ball weirdly. A hot team scores more. A cold team doesn’t.

These aren’t opinions. These are facts you can measure. Directwinpredict.com doesn’t sell dreams. We sell data. We show you the numbers. Then you decide. That’s honest. That’s the straight line from start to finish.

What Real Numbers Tell You

Here’s how it works:

  1. Form – How did the team play in the last five games? Did they score? Did they concede? Count it up.
  2. Injuries – Missing players? Big ones? Small ones? Matters a lot.
  3. Fatigue – Playing cup matches mid-week and league matches on Saturday kills teams. Their bodies are done.
  4. Weather – Cold, wet, windy conditions slow play down. Goals drop. Mistakes rise.
  5. Head-to-head – How do these two teams play against each other? History tells the story.
  6. Goals trends – Does this team usually score three or zero? Numbers don’t lie.

These six things predict matches better than any guess ever will.

Real Examples That Prove It Works

A team plays its third match in six days. The match before, they played extra time and lost 2-1. Now they’re facing a team that just had ten days’ rest. The tired team has zero chance. The data screams it. Their players can’t move. Their focus drops. Injuries spike in tired teams. This isn’t theory; it happens every week in actual football.

Another example: a defender gets hurt in the first half. The team has to move a midfielder back. Now the midfield is weak. Possession drops. Shots go up against them. That one injury breaks the whole structure. A betting prediction tool with statistics sees this instantly. A person guessing does not.

Weather matters too. When it rains, passing gets sloppy. When the wind blows, long balls fail. Attacking teams struggle. Defensive teams do better. Statistics soccer prediction tools track this. They know rainy nights produce fewer goals.

Why This Method Works Better

Numbers can’t feel sad. Numbers can’t hope. Numbers can’t get excited about a player’s haircut. Numbers just show what happened and what tends to happen next.

A team scoring in their last six straight matches will probably score again. That’s not magic. That’s a pattern. A team that gave up three goals in each of its last four games will probably give up more goals. The pattern is locked in.

Directwinpredict.com doesn’t promise you’ll never lose a bet. We’re not liars. But we show you real patterns. Real odds. Real probabilities. That puts you ahead of ninety percent of bettors, who just wing it.

The Bottom Line

You have two choices:

  • Guess and lose money most of the time
  • Use data and win more bets

There’s no trick. No secret. No magic. Just straight-line thinking. Just facts. Just patterns that math shows us over and over.

The fastest road from guessing to winning goes through numbers. Statistics soccer prediction is on the road. It’s direct. It works. It’s what we do.

Stop spinning your wheels. Start looking at what actually wins matches. Start using real data. Start making smarter bets today. Visit Directwinpredict.com now and see the numbers yourself.