PENDING
Result: Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
DirectWinPredict Club Friendly PAOK vs AEK Larnaca
P

PAOK

Home Side
W W D D D
3W 4D 3L
VS
5:00 pm
Club Friendly
A
AEK Larnaca
Away Side
W W D D W
4W 4D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 1.5
Backing over 1.5 goals — Tuesday, 7th July 2026
Best Odds 1.17
Confidence 90%
Implied Prob 85.5%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.17
Over 1.5 Goals85%
Implied Prob
85.5%
Based on 1.17 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+4.5%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
31.2%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
1
PAOK
0
Draws
0
AEK Larnaca
1
Meetings
100%
BTTS Rate
100%
Over 2.5
3
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Over 1.5 in 100% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
PAOK
Metric
AEK Larnaca
1.8
Goals For / Game
1.4
1.4
Goals Against / Game
1.2
20%
Clean Sheet %
20%
3-4-3
W — D — L
4-4-2
Win Rate Comparison
30%
40%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
P0
0-0 5.5%
0-1 7.7%
0-2 5.4%
0-3 2.5%
0-4 0.9%
0-5 0.3%
P1
1-0 8.3%
1-1 11.6%
1-2 8.1%
1-3 3.8%
1-4 1.3%
1-5 0.4%
P2
2-0 6.2%
2-1 8.7%
2-2 6.1%
2-3 2.8%
2-4 1.0%
2-5 0.3%
P3
3-0 3.1%
3-1 4.3%
3-2 3.0%
3-3 1.4%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
P4
4-0 1.2%
4-1 1.6%
4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
P5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-1 (11.6%) 2-1 (8.7%) 1-0 (8.3%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · P=Home goals ↓   A=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
PAOK
Overall
4.2
Scoring
6.0
Defence
5.3
AEK Larnaca
Overall
5.2
Scoring
4.7
Defence
6.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Home Win & BTTS No 9%
Draw & BTTS Yes 23%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 24%
Away Win & BTTS No 13%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 14%
Home Win & Under 2.5 14%
Draw & Over 2.5 18%
Draw & Under 2.5 18%
Away Win & Over 2.5 19%
Away Win & Under 2.5 19%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
03.07.24CF
PAOK2
AEK Larnaca1
Recent Form
PAOK
04.07.26CF
PAOK4
Westerlo0
W
01.07.26CF
PAOK4
Beveren1
W
17.05.26SL
Panathinaikos2
PAOK2
D
13.05.26SL
PAOK1
AEK Athens1
D
10.05.26SL
Olympiacos Piraeus1
PAOK1
D
03.05.26SL
PAOK3
Olympiacos Piraeus1
W
25.04.26AET
(GC) PAOK2
OFI Crete3
L
19.04.26SL
AEK Athens3
PAOK0
L
05.04.26SL
PAOK0
Panathinaikos0
D
22.03.26SL
Volos2
PAOK1
L
AEK Larnaca
04.07.26CF
Helmond1
AEK Larnaca2
W
22.05.26CL
Aris3
AEK Larnaca4
W
16.05.26CL
AEK Larnaca2
Pafos2
D
10.05.26CL
Omonia1
AEK Larnaca1
D
06.05.26CL
AEK Larnaca1
Apollon0
W
03.05.26CL
APOEL1
AEK Larnaca0
L
25.04.26CL
AEK Larnaca2
Aris0
W
18.04.26CL
Pafos1
AEK Larnaca1
D
14.04.26CL
AEK Larnaca0
Omonia2
L
05.04.26CL
Apollon1
AEK Larnaca1
D
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Tuesday, 7th July 2026, PAOK host AEK Larnaca at N/A in Club Friendly. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.

PAOK arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

AEK Larnaca are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 4D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour PAOK, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to AEK Larnaca's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.17 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Club Friendly preview lives.

The home team strides in on 2 wins, 3 draws from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at N/A, and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 3 wins, 2 draws from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is Over 1.5, priced at @1.17, which the numbers settle at around 90%. The whistle goes at 5:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for PAOK vs AEK Larnaca?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.17. Tip confidence rating: 90%.
What is PAOK's current form?
PAOK have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has AEK Larnaca been performing recently?
AEK Larnaca have recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
PAOK lead with 1 wins versus AEK Larnaca's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
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