LOST
Result:
Wrexham 2-2 Chelsea
W
Wrexham
Home Side
W
W
W
D
W
4W 1D 0L
VS
2-2
C
Chelsea
Away Side
W
L
D
W
D
2W 2D 1L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
2
Backing Chelsea to win — Saturday, 7th March 2026
Best Odds
1.41
Confidence
47%
Implied Prob
70.9%
H
30%
D
20%
A
50%
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
2 — Chelsea to win
1.41
Over 2.5 Goals70%
Over 1.5 Goals80%
BTTS — Yes70%
Implied Prob
70.9%
Based on 1.41 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-23.9%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head
Record
0
Wrexham
1
Draws
1
Chelsea
2
Meetings
50%
BTTS Rate
100%
Over 2.5
4.5
Avg Goals
Neutral Data
Chelsea won 1 of 2 meetings.
Key Stats Duel
Comparison
Wrexham
Metric
Chelsea
2.2
Goals For / Game
2.4
1.2
Goals Against / Game
1.2
40%
Clean Sheet %
20%
4-1-0
W — D — L
2-2-1
Win Rate Comparison
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
W0
0-0
3.0%
0-1
5.4%
0-2
4.9%
0-3
2.9%
0-4
1.3%
0-5
0.5%
W1
1-0
5.1%
1-1
9.2%
1-2
8.3%
1-3
5.0%
1-4
2.3%
1-5
0.8%
W2
2-0
4.4%
2-1
7.9%
2-2
7.1%
2-3
4.2%
2-4
1.9%
2-5
0.7%
W3
3-0
2.5%
3-1
4.5%
3-2
4.0%
3-3
2.4%
3-4
1.1%
3-5
0.4%
W4
4-0
1.1%
4-1
1.9%
4-2
1.7%
4-3
1.0%
4-4
0.5%
4-5
0.2%
W5
5-0
0.4%
5-1
0.6%
5-2
0.6%
5-3
0.4%
5-4
0.2%
5-5
0.1%
Top Predicted Scores
1-2 (8.3%)
0-1 (5.4%)
1-3 (5.0%)
■ Most likely (tip)
■ Possible (tip)
■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip
Poisson model · W=Home goals ↓ C=Away goals →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Wrexham Win
3.33
30%
Draw
5
20%
Chelsea Win
2
50%
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
37%
Home Win & BTTS No
16%
Draw & BTTS Yes
14%
Draw & BTTS No
6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
19%
Away Win & BTTS No
8%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
37%
Home Win & Under 2.5
16%
Draw & Over 2.5
14%
Draw & Under 2.5
6%
Away Win & Over 2.5
19%
Away Win & Under 2.5
8%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake Amount
—
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
Match Archives
History Log
Head to Head
⚽ CF (Jul 25, 2024): Chelsea2
Wrexham2
⚽ CF (Jul 20, 2023): Chelsea5
Wrexham0
Recent Form
Wrexham
⚽ CHA (Feb 28, 2026): Charlton0
Wrexham1
⚽ CHA (Feb 24, 2026): Wrexham2
Portsmouth1
⚽ CHA (Feb 21, 2026): Wrexham5
Ipswich3
⚽ CHA (Feb 17, 2026): Bristol City2
Wrexham2
⚽ FAC (Feb 13, 2026): Wrexham1
Ipswich0
Chelsea
⚽ PL (Mar 4, 2026): Aston Villa1
Chelsea4
⚽ PL (Mar 1, 2026): Arsenal2
Chelsea1
⚽ PL (Feb 21, 2026): Chelsea1
Burnley1
⚽ FAC (Feb 13, 2026): Hull0
Chelsea4
⚽ PL (Feb 10, 2026): Chelsea2
Leeds2
Match Analysis
Writeup
The most anticipated match of the weekend. Wrexham, now a competitive Championship side, hosts Chelsea at the Racecourse Ground. Chelsea is in fine form, sitting 5th in the Premier League, but the atmosphere in North Wales will be electric.
Form & H2H: This is their first competitive meeting since 1982. Wrexham has already knocked out Nottingham Forest, proving they can handle top-flight pressure. Chelsea recently thrashed Aston Villa 4-1.
Analysis: While Chelsea is the clear favorite, Wrexham is a form watcher’s wildcard. They have won three in a row at home. However, Chelsea’s depth and Premier League quality should eventually prevail in what will be a closely fought “cupset” attempt.
Prediction: Chelsea to win.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Wrexham vs Chelsea?
Our selection is 2 — Chelsea to win, priced at approximately 1.41. Tip confidence rating: 47%.
What is Wrexham's current form?
Wrexham have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.
How has Chelsea been performing recently?
Chelsea have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Wrexham lead with 0 wins versus Chelsea's 1, with 1 draws across 2 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.