WON
Result:
Esperance Tunis 1-0 AS Marsa
E
Esperance Tunis
Home Side
W
D
W
W
W
3W 1D 1L
VS
1-0
A
AS Marsa
Away Side
L
W
L
L
W
2W 0D 3L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Esperance Tunis to win — Saturday, 7th March 2026
Best Odds
1.19
Confidence
65%
Implied Prob
84%
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Esperance Tunis to win
1.19
BTTS — No80%
Esperance Tunis Clean Sheet60%
Implied Prob
84%
Based on 1.19 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-19%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head
Record
4
Esperance Tunis
1
Draws
0
AS Marsa
5
Meetings
0%
BTTS Rate
20%
Over 2.5
1.4
Avg Goals
Supports Pick
Esperance Tunis won 4 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).
Key Stats Duel
Comparison
Esperance Tunis
Metric
AS Marsa
1.8
Goals For / Game
0.8
0.4
Goals Against / Game
1.4
60%
Clean Sheet %
40%
3-1-1
W — D — L
2-0-3
Win Rate Comparison
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
E0
0-0
11.1%
0-1
6.7%
0-2
2.0%
0-3
0.4%
0-4
0.1%
0-5
0.0%
E1
1-0
17.7%
1-1
10.6%
1-2
3.2%
1-3
0.6%
1-4
0.1%
1-5
0.0%
E2
2-0
14.2%
2-1
8.5%
2-2
2.6%
2-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
2-5
0.0%
E3
3-0
7.6%
3-1
4.5%
3-2
1.4%
3-3
0.3%
3-4
0.0%
3-5
0.0%
E4
4-0
3.0%
4-1
1.8%
4-2
0.5%
4-3
0.1%
4-4
0.0%
4-5
0.0%
E5
5-0
1.0%
5-1
0.6%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.0%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Predicted Scores
1-0 (17.7%)
2-0 (14.2%)
2-1 (8.5%)
■ Most likely (tip)
■ Possible (tip)
■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip
Poisson model · E=Home goals ↓ A=Away goals →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
11%
Home Win & BTTS No
44%
Draw & BTTS Yes
2%
Draw & BTTS No
7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
7%
Away Win & BTTS No
29%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
22%
Home Win & Under 2.5
33%
Draw & Over 2.5
4%
Draw & Under 2.5
5%
Away Win & Over 2.5
14%
Away Win & Under 2.5
22%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake Amount
—
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
Match Archives
History Log
Head to Head
⚽ LP1 (Oct 1, 2025): AS Marsa0
Esperance Tunis3
⚽ LP1 (Dec 5, 2023): AS Marsa0
Esperance Tunis1
⚽ LP1 (Aug 19, 2023): Esperance Tunis1
AS Marsa0
⚽ CUP (Mar 15, 2020): AS Marsa0
Esperance Tunis2
⚽ LP1 (Dec 10, 2016): Esperance Tunis0
AS Marsa0
Recent Form
Esperance Tunis
⚽ LP1 (Mar 1, 2026): Olympique Beja0
Esperance Tunis3
⚽ LP1 (Feb 25, 2026): Metlaoui1
Esperance Tunis1
⚽ LP1 (Feb 21, 2026): Esperance Tunis1
Stade Tunisien0
⚽ LP1 (Feb 17, 2026): Soliman0
Esperance Tunis3
⚽ CL (Feb 14, 2026): Esperance Tunis2
Petro Atletico0
AS Marsa
⚽ LP1 (Feb 28, 2026): AS Marsa0
Stade Tunisien4
⚽ LP1 (Feb 14, 2026): Soliman0
AS Marsa2
⚽ LP1 (Feb 7, 2026): AS Marsa1
JS Kairouan2
⚽ LP1 (Feb 1, 2026): Monastir1
AS Marsa0
⚽ LP1 (Jan 28, 2026): AS Marsa1
AS Gabes0
Match Analysis
Writeup
The league leaders, Esperance, face an AS Marsa side that has struggled to stay afloat in the top ten. Esperance is coming off a dominant run, including a 3-0 thrashing of Marsa earlier this season.
Form & H2H: Esperance has won 7 of the last 10 H2H meetings. Marsa has a poor scoring record away from home, often failing to register against top-tier opposition.
Analysis: Esperance is essentially the form watcher’s lock of the day. They rarely drop points at the Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi.
Prediction: Esperance Tunis to win.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Esperance Tunis vs AS Marsa?
Our selection is 1 — Esperance Tunis to win, priced at approximately 1.19. Tip confidence rating: 65%.
What is Esperance Tunis's current form?
Esperance Tunis have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.
How has AS Marsa been performing recently?
AS Marsa have recorded 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Esperance Tunis lead with 4 wins versus AS Marsa's 0, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.