WON

Result: Turkey 1-0 Romania

Turkey

Home Side

D W W W L

7W 1D 2L

1-0

Euro World Cup Qualifier

Romania

Away Side

W L W W D

5W 1D 4L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Turkey to win — Thursday, 26th March 2026

Best Odds 1.40

Confidence 53%

Implied Prob 71.4%

50%

20%

30%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — Turkey to win

1.40

Over 2.5 Goals75% Over 1.5 Goals85%

Implied Prob

71.4%

Based on 1.40 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-18.4%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Turkey

Draws

Romania

Meetings

30%

BTTS Rate

50%

Over 2.5

2.5

Avg Goals

Against Pick Turkey won 4 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Turkey

Metric

Romania

2.5

Goals For / Game

2.1

1.5

Goals Against / Game

1.4

20%

Clean Sheet %

20%

7-1-2

W — D — L

5-1-4

Win Rate Comparison

70%

50%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 2.4%

0-1 4.2%

0-2 3.8%

0-3 2.3%

0-4 1.0%

0-5 0.4%

1-0 4.6%

1-1 8.3%

1-2 7.4%

1-3 4.5%

1-4 2.0%

1-5 0.7%

2-0 4.5%

2-1 8.1%

2-2 7.2%

2-3 4.4%

2-4 2.0%

2-5 0.7%

3-0 2.9%

3-1 5.2%

3-2 4.7%

3-3 2.8%

3-4 1.3%

3-5 0.5%

4-0 1.4%

4-1 2.6%

4-2 2.3%

4-3 1.4%

4-4 0.6%

4-5 0.2%

5-0 0.6%

5-1 1.0%

5-2 0.9%

5-3 0.5%

5-4 0.2%

5-5 0.1%

Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (8.1%) 3-1 (5.2%) 3-2 (4.7%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · T=Home goals ↓ R=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Turkey Win

50%

Draw

20%

Romania Win

30%

3.33

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Turkey

Overall

7.3 ▲

Scoring

8.3 ▲

Defence

5.0 ▲

Romania

Overall

5.3 ▼

Scoring

7.0 ▼

Defence

5.3 ▼

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 32%

Home Win & BTTS No 22%

Draw & BTTS Yes 5%

Draw & BTTS No 3%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 23%

Away Win & BTTS No 15%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 41%

Home Win & Under 2.5 14%

Draw & Over 2.5 6%

Draw & Under 2.5 2%

Away Win & Over 2.5 29%

Away Win & Under 2.5 10%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

09.11.17

FI: Romania2

Turkey0

10.09.13

WC: Romania0

Turkey2

12.10.12

WC: Turkey0

Romania1

11.08.10

FI: Turkey2

Romania0

22.08.07

FI: Romania2

Turkey1

13.11.85

WC: Turkey1

Romania3

02.04.85

WC: Romania3

Turkey0

23.10.65

WC: Turkey2

Romania1

02.05.65

WC: Romania3

Turkey0

26.04.59

EUR: Turkey2

Romania0

Recent Form

Turkey

18.11.25

WCQ: Spain2

Turkey2

15.11.25

WCQ: Turkey2

Bulgaria0

14.10.25

WCQ: Turkey4

Georgia1

11.10.25

WCQ: Bulgaria1

Turkey6

07.09.25

WCQ: Turkey0

Spain6

04.09.25

WCQ: Georgia2

Turkey3

11.06.25

FI: Mexico1

Turkey0

07.06.25

FI: USA1

Turkey2

23.03.25

UNL: Hungary0

Turkey3

20.03.25

UNL: Turkey3

Hungary1

Romania

18.11.25

WCQ: Romania7

San Marino1

15.11.25

WCQ: Bosnia & Herzegovina3

Romania1

12.10.25

WCQ: Romania1

Austria0

09.10.25

FI: Romania2

Moldova1

09.09.25

WCQ: Cyprus2

Romania2

05.09.25

FI: Romania0

Canada3

10.06.25

WCQ: Romania2

Cyprus0

07.06.25

WCQ: Austria2

Romania1

24.03.25

WCQ: San Marino1

Romania5

21.03.25

WCQ: Romania0

Bosnia & Herzegovina1

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Euro World Cup Qualifier game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.40 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Turkey vs Romania?

Our selection is 1 — Turkey to win, priced at approximately 1.40. Tip confidence rating: 53%.

What is Turkey's current form?

Turkey have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.

How has Romania been performing recently?

Romania have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Turkey lead with 4 wins versus Romania's 6, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.

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