PENDING

Result: 1X — Racing Montevideo to win or draw

Racing Montevideo

Home Side

W W W L W

6W 1D 3L

—

Liga AUF Uruguaya

Progreso

Away Side

L W D D L

4W 2D 4L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Racing Montevideo to win or draw — Thursday, 26th March 2026

Best Odds 1.16

Confidence 100%

Implied Prob 86.2%

⚔ Head to Head Record

Racing Montevideo

Draws

Progreso

Meetings

40%

BTTS Rate

60%

Over 2.5

2.8

Avg Goals

Neutral Data Insufficient H2H data.

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Racing Montevideo

Metric

Progreso

1.5

Goals For / Game

0.9

Goals Against / Game

1.3

40%

Clean Sheet %

20%

6-1-3

W — D — L

4-2-4

Win Rate Comparison

60%

40%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 9.5%

0-1 9.1%

0-2 4.3%

0-3 1.4%

0-4 0.3%

0-5 0.1%

1-0 13.4%

1-1 12.7%

1-2 6.0%

1-3 1.9%

1-4 0.5%

1-5 0.1%

2-0 9.4%

2-1 8.9%

2-2 4.2%

2-3 1.3%

2-4 0.3%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 4.4%

3-1 4.1%

3-2 2.0%

3-3 0.6%

3-4 0.2%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 1.5%

4-1 1.5%

4-2 0.7%

4-3 0.2%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.4%

5-1 0.4%

5-2 0.2%

5-3 0.1%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (13.4%) 1-1 (12.7%) 0-0 (9.5%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · R=Home goals ↓ P=Away goals →

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Racing Montevideo

Overall

6.3 ▼

Scoring

5.0 ▼

Defence

7.0 ▼

Progreso

Overall

4.6 ▲

Scoring

3.3 ▲

Defence

5.7 ▲

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 21%

Home Win & BTTS No 31%

Draw & BTTS Yes 5%

Draw & BTTS No 8%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%

Away Win & BTTS No 21%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 23%

Home Win & Under 2.5 29%

Draw & Over 2.5 6%

Draw & Under 2.5 7%

Away Win & Over 2.5 16%

Away Win & Under 2.5 19%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

29.09.25

LUR: Racing Montevideo0

Progreso0

22.06.25

LUR: Racing Montevideo3

Progreso0

30.03.25

LUR: Progreso0

Racing Montevideo1

21.09.24

LUR: Racing Montevideo1

Progreso0

07.07.24

LUR: Progreso3

Racing Montevideo2

10.03.24

LUR: Progreso4

Racing Montevideo3

14.08.22

SEG: Racing Montevideo2

Progreso1

22.05.22

SEG: Progreso0

Racing Montevideo2

09.10.19

LUR: Progreso2

Racing Montevideo1

17.03.19

LUR: Racing Montevideo3

Progreso0

Recent Form

Racing Montevideo

21.03.26

LUR: Racing Montevideo1

Liverpool M.0

14.03.26

LUR: Boston River0

Racing Montevideo1

08.03.26

LUR: Racing Montevideo1

CA Cerro0

05.03.26

CS: Boston River1

Racing Montevideo0

28.02.26

LUR: Albion1

Racing Montevideo3

21.02.26

LUR: Racing Montevideo4

Danubio0

15.02.26

LUR: Nacional1

Racing Montevideo1

08.02.26

LUR: Racing Montevideo2

Maldonado4

20.01.26

COP: Peñarol1

Racing Montevideo0

15.01.26

COP: Racing Montevideo2

CA Cerro1

Progreso

22.03.26

LUR: Progreso0

Boston River1

14.03.26

LUR: CA Cerro0

Progreso1

07.03.26

LUR: Progreso2

Albion2

28.02.26

LUR: Danubio2

Progreso2

22.02.26

LUR: Progreso0

Nacional1

14.02.26

LUR: Maldonado2

Progreso0

07.02.26

LUR: Progreso0

Central Español3

30.01.26

COP: Boston River1

Progreso2

23.01.26

COP: Nacional1

Progreso2

19.01.26

COP: Juventud0

Progreso1

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Thursday, 26th March 2026, Racing Montevideo host Progreso in Liga AUF Uruguaya. We recommend Racing Montevideo to win or draw as the standout selection.

Racing Montevideo arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Progreso are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 2D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Racing Montevideo, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Progreso's 3, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: racing montevideo to win or draw at odds of 1.16 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Liga AUF Uruguaya game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1X, and it looks even better when you see the @1.16 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Racing Montevideo vs Progreso?

Our selection is 1X — Racing Montevideo to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.16. Tip confidence rating: 100%.

What is Racing Montevideo's current form?

Racing Montevideo have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.

How has Progreso been performing recently?

Progreso have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Racing Montevideo lead with 6 wins versus Progreso's 3, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.

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