WON

Result: Trefelin 4-0 Aberystwyth

Trefelin

Home Side

W W W W W

5W 0D 0L

4-0

Wales Cymru South

Aberystwyth

Away Side

L L W W W

3W 0D 2L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Trefelin to win — Saturday, 7th March 2026

Best Odds 1.33

Confidence 68%

Implied Prob 75.2%

50%

30%

20%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — Trefelin to win

1.33

BTTS — No70% Trefelin Clean Sheet80%

Implied Prob

75.2%

Based on 1.33 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-7.2%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Trefelin

Draws

Aberystwyth

Meetings

BTTS Rate

Over 2.5

Avg Goals

Supports Pick Trefelin won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Trefelin

Metric

Aberystwyth

2.2

Goals For / Game

0.2

Goals Against / Game

1.4

80%

Clean Sheet %

40%

5-0-0

W — D — L

3-0-2

Win Rate Comparison

100%

60%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 9.1%

0-1 5.4%

0-2 1.6%

0-3 0.3%

0-4 0.1%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 16.3%

1-1 9.8%

1-2 2.9%

1-3 0.6%

1-4 0.1%

1-5 0.0%

2-0 14.7%

2-1 8.8%

2-2 2.7%

2-3 0.5%

2-4 0.1%

2-5 0.0%

3-0 8.8%

3-1 5.3%

3-2 1.6%

3-3 0.3%

3-4 0.1%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 4.0%

4-1 2.4%

4-2 0.7%

4-3 0.1%

4-4 0.0%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 1.4%

5-1 0.9%

5-2 0.3%

5-3 0.1%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (16.3%) 2-0 (14.7%) 2-1 (8.8%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · T=Home goals ↓ A=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Trefelin Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Aberystwyth Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Trefelin

Overall

10.0 —

Scoring

7.3 —

Defence

9.3 —

Aberystwyth

Overall

6.0 —

Scoring

3.3 —

Defence

5.3 —

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 19%

Home Win & BTTS No 44%

Draw & BTTS Yes 0%

Draw & BTTS No 0%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%

Away Win & BTTS No 26%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 32%

Home Win & Under 2.5 32%

Draw & Over 2.5 0%

Draw & Under 2.5 0%

Away Win & Over 2.5 19%

Away Win & Under 2.5 19%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

⚽ FAW (Nov 8, 2025): Aberystwyth0

Trefelin2

Recent Form

Trefelin

⚽ FAW (Mar 4, 2026): Trefelin3

Cardiff Draconians1

⚽ FAW (Feb 28, 2026): Llantwit Major0

Trefelin1

⚽ FAW (Feb 20, 2026): Trefelin2

Ynyshir Albions0

⚽ FAW (Feb 17, 2026): Trefelin3

Baglan Dragons0

⚽ FAW (Feb 13, 2026): Carmarthen Town0

Trefelin2

Aberystwyth

⚽ FAW (Mar 1, 2026): Aberystwyth0

Caerau Ely4

⚽ FAW (Feb 24, 2026): Ammanford2

Aberystwyth1

⚽ FAW (Feb 14, 2026): Aberystwyth2

Treowen1

⚽ FAW (Feb 7, 2026): Baglan Dragons0

Aberystwyth1

⚽ FAW (Jan 31, 2026): Newport City0

Aberystwyth1

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Saturday, 7th March 2026, Trefelin host Aberystwyth in Wales Cymru South. We recommend Trefelin to win as the standout selection.

Trefelin arrive in strong form, having recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Aberystwyth are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 3W 0D 2L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Trefelin, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Aberystwyth's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: trefelin to win at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

This is a top-of-the-table clash in the Welsh second tier. Trefelin sits in 1st place, while the historic Aberystwyth Town is fighting in 5th. Trefelin has been the surprise package of the season, showing incredible scoring depth.

Form & H2H: Trefelin won the previous encounter 2-0. Their home record this season (19 wins in 23 matches) is the best in the league.

Analysis: Aberystwyth is a veteran club, but Trefelin’s youth and momentum make them hard to beat at home. This is a must-win for Trefelin to keep Cambrian United at bay.

Prediction: Trefelin to win.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Trefelin vs Aberystwyth?

Our selection is 1 — Trefelin to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 68%.

What is Trefelin's current form?

Trefelin have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.

How has Aberystwyth been performing recently?

Aberystwyth have recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Trefelin lead with 1 wins versus Aberystwyth's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.

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