WON
Result:
Trefelin 4-0 Aberystwyth
T
Trefelin
Home Side
W
W
W
W
W
5W 0D 0L
VS
4-0
A
Aberystwyth
Away Side
L
L
W
W
W
3W 0D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Trefelin to win — Saturday, 7th March 2026
Best Odds
1.33
Confidence
68%
Implied Prob
75.2%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Trefelin to win
1.33
BTTS — No70%
Trefelin Clean Sheet80%
Implied Prob
75.2%
Based on 1.33 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-7.2%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head
Record
1
Trefelin
0
Draws
0
Aberystwyth
1
Meetings
0%
BTTS Rate
0%
Over 2.5
2
Avg Goals
Supports Pick
Trefelin won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
Key Stats Duel
Comparison
Trefelin
Metric
Aberystwyth
2.2
Goals For / Game
1
0.2
Goals Against / Game
1.4
80%
Clean Sheet %
40%
5-0-0
W — D — L
3-0-2
Win Rate Comparison
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
T0
0-0
9.1%
0-1
5.4%
0-2
1.6%
0-3
0.3%
0-4
0.1%
0-5
0.0%
T1
1-0
16.3%
1-1
9.8%
1-2
2.9%
1-3
0.6%
1-4
0.1%
1-5
0.0%
T2
2-0
14.7%
2-1
8.8%
2-2
2.7%
2-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
2-5
0.0%
T3
3-0
8.8%
3-1
5.3%
3-2
1.6%
3-3
0.3%
3-4
0.1%
3-5
0.0%
T4
4-0
4.0%
4-1
2.4%
4-2
0.7%
4-3
0.1%
4-4
0.0%
4-5
0.0%
T5
5-0
1.4%
5-1
0.9%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Predicted Scores
1-0 (16.3%)
2-0 (14.7%)
2-1 (8.8%)
■ Most likely (tip)
■ Possible (tip)
■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip
Poisson model · T=Home goals ↓ A=Away goals →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Trefelin Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Aberystwyth Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
19%
Home Win & BTTS No
44%
Draw & BTTS Yes
0%
Draw & BTTS No
0%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
11%
Away Win & BTTS No
26%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
32%
Home Win & Under 2.5
32%
Draw & Over 2.5
0%
Draw & Under 2.5
0%
Away Win & Over 2.5
19%
Away Win & Under 2.5
19%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake Amount
—
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
Match Archives
History Log
Head to Head
⚽ FAW (Nov 8, 2025): Aberystwyth0
Trefelin2
Recent Form
Trefelin
⚽ FAW (Mar 4, 2026): Trefelin3
Cardiff Draconians1
⚽ FAW (Feb 28, 2026): Llantwit Major0
Trefelin1
⚽ FAW (Feb 20, 2026): Trefelin2
Ynyshir Albions0
⚽ FAW (Feb 17, 2026): Trefelin3
Baglan Dragons0
⚽ FAW (Feb 13, 2026): Carmarthen Town0
Trefelin2
Aberystwyth
⚽ FAW (Mar 1, 2026): Aberystwyth0
Caerau Ely4
⚽ FAW (Feb 24, 2026): Ammanford2
Aberystwyth1
⚽ FAW (Feb 14, 2026): Aberystwyth2
Treowen1
⚽ FAW (Feb 7, 2026): Baglan Dragons0
Aberystwyth1
⚽ FAW (Jan 31, 2026): Newport City0
Aberystwyth1
Match Analysis
Writeup
This is a top-of-the-table clash in the Welsh second tier. Trefelin sits in 1st place, while the historic Aberystwyth Town is fighting in 5th. Trefelin has been the surprise package of the season, showing incredible scoring depth.
Form & H2H: Trefelin won the previous encounter 2-0. Their home record this season (19 wins in 23 matches) is the best in the league.
Analysis: Aberystwyth is a veteran club, but Trefelin’s youth and momentum make them hard to beat at home. This is a must-win for Trefelin to keep Cambrian United at bay.
Prediction: Trefelin to win.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Trefelin vs Aberystwyth?
Our selection is 1 — Trefelin to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is Trefelin's current form?
Trefelin have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.
How has Aberystwyth been performing recently?
Aberystwyth have recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Trefelin lead with 1 wins versus Aberystwyth's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.