WON

Result: Kalju 4-0 Kuressaare

Kalju

Home Side

W W W D L

6W 3D 1L

4-0

Estonia Meistriliiga

Kuressaare

Away Side

W L D W D

4W 2D 4L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Kalju to win — Saturday, 21st March 2026

Best Odds 1.25

Confidence 70%

Implied Prob 80%

60%

20%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — Kalju to win

1.25

Over 1.5 Goals85%

Implied Prob

80%

Based on 1.25 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-10%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Kalju

Draws

Kuressaare

Meetings

30%

BTTS Rate

60%

Over 2.5

3.4

Avg Goals

Supports Pick Kalju won 10 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Kalju

Metric

Kuressaare

2.2

Goals For / Game

1.8

Goals Against / Game

2.3

40%

Clean Sheet %

30%

6-3-1

W — D — L

4-2-4

Win Rate Comparison

60%

40%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 2.6%

0-1 3.6%

0-2 2.6%

0-3 1.2%

0-4 0.4%

0-5 0.1%

1-0 5.9%

1-1 8.2%

1-2 5.7%

1-3 2.7%

1-4 0.9%

1-5 0.3%

2-0 6.6%

2-1 9.2%

2-2 6.5%

2-3 3.0%

2-4 1.1%

2-5 0.3%

3-0 4.9%

3-1 6.9%

3-2 4.8%

3-3 2.3%

3-4 0.8%

3-5 0.2%

4-0 2.8%

4-1 3.9%

4-2 2.7%

4-3 1.3%

4-4 0.4%

4-5 0.1%

5-0 1.3%

5-1 1.8%

5-2 1.2%

5-3 0.6%

5-4 0.2%

5-5 0.1%

Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.2%) 3-1 (6.9%) 2-0 (6.6%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · K=Home goals ↓ K=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Kalju Win

60%

1.67

Draw

20%

Kuressaare Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Kalju

Overall

6.9 —

Scoring

7.3 —

Defence

6.7 —

Kuressaare

Overall

4.6 —

Scoring

6.0 —

Defence

2.3 —

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 29%

Home Win & BTTS No 19%

Draw & BTTS Yes 12%

Draw & BTTS No 8%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 19%

Away Win & BTTS No 13%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 26%

Home Win & Under 2.5 22%

Draw & Over 2.5 11%

Draw & Under 2.5 9%

Away Win & Over 2.5 18%

Away Win & Under 2.5 14%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

25.10.25

ML: FC Kuressaare0

Nõmme Kalju1

31.08.25

ML: Nõmme Kalju2

FC Kuressaare0

18.05.25

ML: Nõmme Kalju4

FC Kuressaare0

12.04.25

ML: FC Kuressaare0

Nõmme Kalju2

02.11.24

ML: FC Kuressaare1

Nõmme Kalju2

18.08.24

ML: Nõmme Kalju5

FC Kuressaare1

18.05.24

ML: Nõmme Kalju3

FC Kuressaare0

02.03.24

ML: FC Kuressaare0

Nõmme Kalju6

26.09.23

ML: FC Kuressaare0

Nõmme Kalju2

27.08.23

ML: Nõmme Kalju4

FC Kuressaare1

Recent Form

Kalju

15.03.26

ML: Flora0

Nõmme Kalju1

08.03.26

ML: Tammeka0

Nõmme Kalju1

28.02.26

SC: Flora1

Nõmme Kalju3

21.02.26

CF: Nõmme Kalju1

Super Nova1

14.02.26

CF: Paide2

Nõmme Kalju1

11.02.26

CF: Nõmme Kalju2

Tukums 20002

07.02.26

CF: Jelgava0

Nõmme Kalju2

30.01.26

CF: Nõmme Kalju1

RFS1

28.01.26

CF: FK Liepaja3

Nõmme Kalju5

23.01.26

CF: Maardu0

Nõmme Kalju5

Kuressaare

14.03.26

ML: FC Kuressaare3

Tammeka2

08.03.26

ML: Levadia2

FC Kuressaare0

21.02.26

CF: FC Kuressaare2

Narva2

14.02.26

CF: FC Kuressaare2

Tallinna Kalev0

07.02.26

CF: FC Kuressaare3

Nõmme Utd3

31.01.26

CF: Pärnu JK Vaprus9

FC Kuressaare2

24.01.26

CF: Viimsi JK3

FC Kuressaare2

29.11.25

ML: FC Kuressaare2

Viimsi JK0

22.11.25

ML: Viimsi JK0

FC Kuressaare1

08.11.25

ML: Tallinna Kalev2

FC Kuressaare1

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Estonia Meistriliiga game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.25 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Kalju vs Kuressaare?

Our selection is 1 — Kalju to win, priced at approximately 1.25. Tip confidence rating: 70%.

What is Kalju's current form?

Kalju have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.

How has Kuressaare been performing recently?

Kuressaare have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Kalju lead with 10 wins versus Kuressaare's 0, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.

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