WON

Result: Bayern Munich 4-0 Union Berlin

Bayern Munich

Home Side

W D W W W

8W 2D 0L

4-0

Bundesliga

Union Berlin

Away Side

W L L W L

2W 3D 5L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Bayern Munich to win — Saturday, 21st March 2026

Best Odds 1.21

Confidence 69%

Implied Prob 82.6%

60%

20%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — Bayern Munich to win

1.21

Over 1.5 Goals85% BTTS — Yes70%

Implied Prob

82.6%

Based on 1.21 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-13.6%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Bayern Munich

Draws

Union Berlin

Meetings

60%

BTTS Rate

70%

Over 2.5

3.7

Avg Goals

Supports Pick Bayern Munich won 7 of the last 10 meetings (3 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Bayern Munich

Metric

Union Berlin

3.3

Goals For / Game

0.9

1.1

Goals Against / Game

1.7

20%

Clean Sheet %

20%

8-2-0

W — D — L

2-3-5

Win Rate Comparison

80%

20%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 3.0%

0-1 3.0%

0-2 1.5%

0-3 0.5%

0-4 0.1%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 7.6%

1-1 7.6%

1-2 3.8%

1-3 1.3%

1-4 0.3%

1-5 0.1%

2-0 9.4%

2-1 9.4%

2-2 4.7%

2-3 1.6%

2-4 0.4%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 7.9%

3-1 7.9%

3-2 3.9%

3-3 1.3%

3-4 0.3%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 4.9%

4-1 4.9%

4-2 2.5%

4-3 0.8%

4-4 0.2%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 2.5%

5-1 2.5%

5-2 1.2%

5-3 0.4%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 2-0 (9.4%) 2-1 (9.4%) 3-0 (7.9%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · B=Home goals ↓ U=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Bayern Munich Win

60%

1.67

Draw

20%

Union Berlin Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Bayern Munich

Overall

8.6 —

Scoring

10.0 —

Defence

6.3 —

Union Berlin

Overall

2.9 ▼

Scoring

3.0 ▼

Defence

4.3 ▼

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 45%

Home Win & BTTS No 19%

Draw & BTTS Yes 14%

Draw & BTTS No 6%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%

Away Win & BTTS No 5%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 38%

Home Win & Under 2.5 26%

Draw & Over 2.5 12%

Draw & Under 2.5 8%

Away Win & Over 2.5 10%

Away Win & Under 2.5 6%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

03.12.25

POK: Union Berlin2

Bayern Munich3

08.11.25

BUN: Union Berlin2

Bayern Munich2

15.03.25

BUN: Union Berlin1

Bayern Munich1

02.11.24

BUN: Bayern Munich3

Union Berlin0

20.04.24

BUN: Union Berlin1

Bayern Munich5

24.01.24

BUN: Bayern Munich1

Union Berlin0

26.02.23

BUN: Bayern Munich3

Union Berlin0

03.09.22

BUN: Union Berlin1

Bayern Munich1

19.03.22

BUN: Bayern Munich4

Union Berlin0

30.10.21

BUN: Union Berlin2

Bayern Munich5

Recent Form

Bayern Munich

18.03.26

UCL: Bayern Munich4

Atalanta1

14.03.26

BUN: Bayer Leverkusen1

Bayern Munich1

10.03.26

UCL: Atalanta1

Bayern Munich6

06.03.26

BUN: Bayern Munich4

M’gladbach1

28.02.26

BUN: Dortmund2

Bayern Munich3

21.02.26

BUN: Bayern Munich3

Frankfurt2

14.02.26

BUN: Werder Bremen0

Bayern Munich3

11.02.26

POK: Bayern Munich2

RB Leipzig0

08.02.26

BUN: Bayern Munich5

Hoffenheim1

31.01.26

BUN: Hamburger SV2

Bayern Munich2

Union Berlin

15.03.26

BUN: Freiburg0

Union Berlin1

08.03.26

BUN: Union Berlin1

Werder Bremen4

28.02.26

BUN: B. M’gladbach1

Union Berlin0

21.02.26

BUN: Union Berlin1

Bayer Leverkusen0

14.02.26

BUN: Hamburger SV3

Union Berlin2

06.02.26

BUN: Union Berlin1

Frankfurt1

31.01.26

BUN: Hoffenheim3

Union Berlin1

24.01.26

BUN: Union Berlin0

Dortmund3

18.01.26

BUN: Stuttgart1

Union Berlin1

15.01.26

BUN: Augsburg1

Union Berlin1

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Bundesliga game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.21 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin?

Our selection is 1 — Bayern Munich to win, priced at approximately 1.21. Tip confidence rating: 69%.

What is Bayern Munich's current form?

Bayern Munich have won 8, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.

How has Union Berlin been performing recently?

Union Berlin have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Bayern Munich lead with 7 wins versus Union Berlin's 0, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.

🔗 More Tips Today Related