WON
Result: Dortmund 3-2 Hamburger SV
DirectWinPredict Bundesliga Dortmund vs Hamburger SV
D

Dortmund

Home Side
W W L L D
6W 1D 3L
VS
3-2
Bundesliga
H
Hamburger SV
Away Side
D W L L D
3W 5D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Dortmund to win — Saturday, 21st March 2026
Best Odds 1.45
Confidence 53%
Implied Prob 69%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Dortmund to win
1.45
Over 1.5 Goals85%
Implied Prob
69%
Based on 1.45 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-16%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
5
Dortmund
2
Draws
3
Hamburger SV
10
Meetings
30%
BTTS Rate
60%
Over 2.5
2.8
Avg Goals
Neutral Data Dortmund won 5 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Dortmund
Metric
Hamburger SV
2
Goals For / Game
1.2
1.5
Goals Against / Game
1
30%
Clean Sheet %
30%
6-1-3
W — D — L
3-5-2
Win Rate Comparison
60%
30%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
H0
H1
H2
H3
H4
H5
D0
0-0 5.8%
0-1 7.8%
0-2 5.3%
0-3 2.4%
0-4 0.8%
0-5 0.2%
D1
1-0 8.7%
1-1 11.7%
1-2 7.9%
1-3 3.6%
1-4 1.2%
1-5 0.3%
D2
2-0 6.5%
2-1 8.8%
2-2 5.9%
2-3 2.7%
2-4 0.9%
2-5 0.2%
D3
3-0 3.3%
3-1 4.4%
3-2 3.0%
3-3 1.3%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
D4
4-0 1.2%
4-1 1.7%
4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
D5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (8.8%) 1-0 (8.7%) 2-0 (6.5%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · D=Home goals ↓   H=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Dortmund Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Hamburger SV Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Dortmund
Overall
6.3
Scoring
6.7
Defence
5.0
Hamburger SV
Overall
4.5
Scoring
4.0
Defence
6.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Home Win & BTTS No 20%
Draw & BTTS Yes 15%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 28%
Home Win & Under 2.5 23%
Draw & Over 2.5 14%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 14%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
08.11.25
BUN: Hamburger SV1
Dortmund1
10.02.18
BUN: Dortmund2
Hamburger SV0
20.09.17
BUN: Hamburger SV0
Dortmund3
04.04.17
BUN: Dortmund3
Hamburger SV0
05.11.16
BUN: Hamburger SV2
Dortmund5
17.04.16
BUN: Dortmund3
Hamburger SV0
20.11.15
BUN: Hamburger SV3
Dortmund1
07.03.15
BUN: Hamburger SV0
Dortmund0
04.10.14
BUN: Dortmund0
Hamburger SV1
22.02.14
BUN: Hamburger SV3
Dortmund0
Recent Form
Dortmund
14.03.26
BUN: Dortmund2
Augsburg0
W
07.03.26
BUN: FC Köln1
Dortmund2
W
28.02.26
BUN: Dortmund2
Bayern Munich3
L
25.02.26
UCL: Atalanta4
Dortmund1
L
21.02.26
BUN: RB Leipzig2
Dortmund2
D
17.02.26
UCL: Dortmund2
Atalanta0
W
13.02.26
BUN: Dortmund4
Mainz0
W
07.02.26
BUN: Wolfsburg1
Dortmund2
W
01.02.26
BUN: Dortmund3
Heidenheim2
W
28.01.26
UCL: Dortmund0
Inter2
L
Hamburger SV
14.03.26
BUN: Hamburger SV1
FC Köln1
D
07.03.26
BUN: Wolfsburg1
Hamburger SV2
W
04.03.26
BUN: Hamburger SV0
Bayer Leverkusen1
L
01.03.26
BUN: Hamburger SV1
RB Leipzig2
L
20.02.26
BUN: Mainz1
Hamburger SV1
D
14.02.26
BUN: Hamburger SV3
Union Berlin2
W
07.02.26
BUN: Heidenheim0
Hamburger SV2
W
31.01.26
BUN: Hamburger SV2
Bayern Munich2
D
23.01.26
BUN: St. Pauli0
Hamburger SV0
D
17.01.26
BUN: Hamburger SV0
B. Monchengladbach0
D
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Saturday, 21st March 2026, Dortmund host Hamburger SV in Bundesliga. We recommend Dortmund to win as the standout selection.

Dortmund arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Hamburger SV are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 5D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Dortmund, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Hamburger SV's 3, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: dortmund to win at odds of 1.45 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Bundesliga game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.45 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?
Our selection is 1 — Dortmund to win, priced at approximately 1.45. Tip confidence rating: 53%.
What is Dortmund's current form?
Dortmund have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Hamburger SV been performing recently?
Hamburger SV have recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Dortmund lead with 5 wins versus Hamburger SV's 3, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
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