WON
Result: Benfica 3-0 Vitoria Guimaraes
DirectWinPredict Liga Portugal Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes
B

Benfica

Home Side
W D W L W
6W 2D 2L
VS
3-0
Liga Portugal
V
Vitoria Guimaraes
Away Side
L L D L W
3W 1D 6L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Benfica to win — Saturday, 21st March 2026
Best Odds 1.31
Confidence 58%
Implied Prob 76.3%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Benfica to win
1.31
BTTS — No65%
Implied Prob
76.3%
Based on 1.31 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-18.3%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
7
Benfica
3
Draws
0
Vitoria Guimaraes
10
Meetings
40%
BTTS Rate
80%
Over 2.5
3.4
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Benfica won 7 of the last 10 meetings (3 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Benfica
Metric
Vitoria Guimaraes
1.8
Goals For / Game
0
1.1
Goals Against / Game
0
20%
Clean Sheet %
0%
6-2-2
W — D — L
3-1-6
Win Rate Comparison
60%
30%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
V0
V1
V2
V3
V4
V5
B0
0-0 23.5%
0-1 12.9%
0-2 3.6%
0-3 0.7%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
B1
1-0 21.1%
1-1 11.6%
1-2 3.2%
1-3 0.6%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
B2
2-0 9.5%
2-1 5.2%
2-2 1.4%
2-3 0.3%
2-4 0.0%
2-5 0.0%
B3
3-0 2.9%
3-1 1.6%
3-2 0.4%
3-3 0.1%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
B4
4-0 0.6%
4-1 0.4%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
B5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (21.1%) 2-0 (9.5%) 2-1 (5.2%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · B=Home goals ↓   V=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Benfica Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Vitoria Guimaraes Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Benfica
Overall
6.6
Scoring
6.0
Defence
6.3
Vitoria Guimaraes
Overall
3.3
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Home Win & BTTS No 37%
Draw & BTTS Yes 5%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Away Win & BTTS No 19%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 23%
Home Win & Under 2.5 34%
Draw & Over 2.5 6%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 12%
Away Win & Under 2.5 17%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
01.11.25
LP: Vitória Guimarães0
Benfica3
19.04.25
LP: Vitória Guimarães0
Benfica3
07.12.24
LP: Benfica1
Vitória Guimarães0
11.02.24
LP: Vitória Guimarães2
Benfica2
02.09.23
LP: Benfica4
Vitória Guimarães0
18.03.23
LP: Benfica5
Vitória Guimarães1
01.10.22
LP: Vitória Guimarães0
Benfica0
27.02.22
LP: Benfica3
Vitória Guimarães0
27.10.21
CUP: Vitória Guimarães3
Benfica3
25.09.21
LP: Vitória Guimarães1
Benfica3
Recent Form
Benfica
14.03.26
LP: Arouca1
Benfica2
W
08.03.26
LP: Benfica2
FC Porto2
D
02.03.26
LP: Gil Vicente1
Benfica2
W
25.02.26
CL: Real Madrid2
Benfica1
L
21.02.26
LP: Benfica3
AFS0
W
17.02.26
CL: Benfica0
Real Madrid1
L
13.02.26
LP: Santa Clara1
Benfica2
W
08.02.26
LP: Benfica2
Alverca1
W
01.02.26
LP: Tondela0
Benfica0
D
28.01.26
CL: Benfica4
Real Madrid2
W
Vitoria Guimaraes
14.03.26
LP: Vitória Guimarães1
Famalicão2
L
08.03.26
LP: Santa Clara2
Vitória Guimarães0
L
28.02.26
LP: Vitória Guimarães1
Alverca1
D
21.02.26
LP: Braga3
Vitória Guimarães2
L
14.02.26
LP: Vitória Guimarães2
Estrela1
W
07.02.26
LP: Arouca3
Vitória Guimarães2
L
30.01.26
LP: Vitória Guimarães1
Moreirense0
W
24.01.26
LP: Estoril4
Vitória Guimarães2
L
18.01.26
LP: Vitória Guimarães0
FC Porto1
L
10.01.26
CUP: Vitória Guimarães2
Braga1
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Saturday, 21st March 2026, Benfica host Vitoria Guimaraes in Liga Portugal. We recommend Benfica to win as the standout selection.

Benfica arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Vitoria Guimaraes are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 1D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Benfica, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Vitoria Guimaraes's 0, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: benfica to win at odds of 1.31 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Liga Portugal game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.31 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes?
Our selection is 1 — Benfica to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 58%.
What is Benfica's current form?
Benfica have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Vitoria Guimaraes been performing recently?
Vitoria Guimaraes have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Benfica lead with 7 wins versus Vitoria Guimaraes's 0, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
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