WON

Result: Chelsea W 4-3 Aston Villa W

Chelsea W

Home Side

L D W W W

6W 1D 3L

4-3

WSL

Aston Villa W

Away Side

W D L L L

3W 1D 6L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Chelsea W to win — Sunday, 29th March 2026

Best Odds 1.20

Confidence 70%

Implied Prob 83.3%

60%

20%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — Chelsea W to win

1.20

Over 1.5 Goals90%

Implied Prob

83.3%

Based on 1.20 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-13.3%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Chelsea W

Draws

Aston Villa W

Meetings

30%

BTTS Rate

60%

Over 2.5

2.8

Avg Goals

Supports Pick Chelsea W won 10 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Chelsea W

Metric

Aston Villa W

1.4

Goals For / Game

1.4

1.3

Goals Against / Game

2.7

40%

Clean Sheet %

20%

6-1-3

W — D — L

3-1-6

Win Rate Comparison

60%

30%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 3.3%

0-1 4.5%

0-2 3.0%

0-3 1.4%

0-4 0.5%

0-5 0.1%

1-0 6.8%

1-1 9.2%

1-2 6.2%

1-3 2.8%

1-4 1.0%

1-5 0.3%

2-0 7.0%

2-1 9.5%

2-2 6.4%

2-3 2.9%

2-4 1.0%

2-5 0.3%

3-0 4.8%

3-1 6.5%

3-2 4.4%

3-3 2.0%

3-4 0.7%

3-5 0.2%

4-0 2.5%

4-1 3.3%

4-2 2.2%

4-3 1.0%

4-4 0.3%

4-5 0.1%

5-0 1.0%

5-1 1.4%

5-2 0.9%

5-3 0.4%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.5%) 2-0 (7.0%) 1-0 (6.8%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · C=Home goals ↓ A=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Chelsea W Win

60%

1.67

Draw

20%

Aston Villa W Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Chelsea W

Overall

6.3 —

Scoring

4.7 —

Defence

5.7 —

Aston Villa W

Overall

3.3 ▲

Scoring

4.7 ▲

Defence

1.0 ▲

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 36%

Home Win & BTTS No 24%

Draw & BTTS Yes 6%

Draw & BTTS No 4%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 18%

Away Win & BTTS No 12%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 36%

Home Win & Under 2.5 24%

Draw & Over 2.5 6%

Draw & Under 2.5 4%

Away Win & Over 2.5 18%

Away Win & Under 2.5 12%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

14.09.25

WSL: Aston Villa1

Chelsea3

02.02.25

WSL: Aston Villa0

Chelsea1

20.09.24

WSL: Chelsea1

Aston Villa0

17.04.24

WSL: Chelsea3

Aston Villa0

04.11.23

WSL: Aston Villa0

Chelsea6

16.04.23

FAC: Aston Villa0

Chelsea1

02.04.23

WSL: Aston Villa0

Chelsea3

30.10.22

WSL: Chelsea3

Aston Villa1

13.03.22

WSL: Chelsea1

Aston Villa0

29.01.22

FAC: Aston Villa1

Chelsea3

Recent Form

Chelsea W

24.03.26

UWCL: Arsenal3

Chelsea1

21.03.26

WSL: London City Lionesses1

Chelsea1

18.03.26

WSL: Chelsea2

Brighton1

15.03.26

WLC: Chelsea2

Man United0

22.02.26

FAC: Chelsea2

Man United1

15.02.26

WSL: Chelsea2

Liverpool0

08.02.26

WSL: Tottenham0

Chelsea2

01.02.26

WSL: Man City5

Chelsea1

24.01.26

WSL: Chelsea0

Arsenal2

21.01.26

WLC: Man City0

Chelsea1

Aston Villa W

22.03.26

WSL: Leicester City1

Aston Villa2

15.03.26

WSL: Aston Villa0

Man City0

15.02.26

WSL: Aston Villa3

Tottenham7

08.02.26

WSL: Liverpool4

Aston Villa1

01.02.26

WSL: Everton2

Aston Villa1

25.01.26

WSL: Aston Villa1

Man United4

18.01.26

FAC: Arsenal2

Aston Villa0

11.01.26

WSL: Aston Villa2

Brighton1

14.12.25

WSL: Man City6

Aston Villa1

11.12.25

WSL: Aston Villa3

Liverpool0

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this WSL game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.20 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Chelsea W vs Aston Villa W?

Our selection is 1 — Chelsea W to win, priced at approximately 1.20. Tip confidence rating: 70%.

What is Chelsea W's current form?

Chelsea W have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.

How has Aston Villa W been performing recently?

Aston Villa W have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Chelsea W lead with 10 wins versus Aston Villa W's 0, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.

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