WON
Result:
AEK Athens 1-0 AEL Larissa
A
AEK Athens
Home Side
D
W
D
W
D
2W 3D 0L
VS
1-0
A
AEL Larissa
Away Side
L
D
D
L
W
1W 2D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing AEK Athens to win — Saturday, 7th March 2026
Best Odds
1.22
Confidence
54%
Implied Prob
82%
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — AEK Athens to win
1.22
Over 1.5 Goals90%
AEK Athens Clean Sheet60%
Implied Prob
82%
Based on 1.22 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-28%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head
Record
3
AEK Athens
2
Draws
0
AEL Larissa
5
Meetings
60%
BTTS Rate
60%
Over 2.5
3.2
Avg Goals
Supports Pick
AEK Athens won 3 of the last 5 meetings (2 draws).
Key Stats Duel
Comparison
AEK Athens
Metric
AEL Larissa
2.2
Goals For / Game
1
0.6
Goals Against / Game
1.8
60%
Clean Sheet %
20%
2-3-0
W — D — L
1-2-2
Win Rate Comparison
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A0
0-0
6.1%
0-1
4.9%
0-2
2.0%
0-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
0-5
0.0%
A1
1-0
12.2%
1-1
9.7%
1-2
3.9%
1-3
1.0%
1-4
0.2%
1-5
0.0%
A2
2-0
12.2%
2-1
9.7%
2-2
3.9%
2-3
1.0%
2-4
0.2%
2-5
0.0%
A3
3-0
8.1%
3-1
6.5%
3-2
2.6%
3-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
3-5
0.0%
A4
4-0
4.1%
4-1
3.2%
4-2
1.3%
4-3
0.4%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
A5
5-0
1.6%
5-1
1.3%
5-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Predicted Scores
1-0 (12.2%)
2-0 (12.2%)
2-1 (9.7%)
■ Most likely (tip)
■ Possible (tip)
■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip
Poisson model · A=Home goals ↓ A=Away goals →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
18%
Home Win & BTTS No
18%
Draw & BTTS Yes
23%
Draw & BTTS No
23%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
10%
Away Win & BTTS No
10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
18%
Home Win & Under 2.5
18%
Draw & Over 2.5
23%
Draw & Under 2.5
23%
Away Win & Over 2.5
10%
Away Win & Under 2.5
10%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake Amount
—
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
Match Archives
History Log
Head to Head
⚽ SL (Sep 21, 2025): AEL Larissa1
AEK Athens1
⚽ SL (Feb 15, 2021): AEL Larissa2
AEK Athens4
⚽ SL (Nov 22, 2020): AEK Athens4
AEL Larissa1
⚽ SL (Jan 19, 2020): AEK Athens3
AEL Larissa0
⚽ SL (Oct 5, 2019): AEL Larissa0
AEK Athens0
Recent Form
AEK Athens
⚽ SL (Mar 1, 2026): Volos2
AEK Athens2
⚽ SL (Feb 22, 2026): AEK Athens4
Levadiakos0
⚽ SL (Feb 15, 2026): PAOK0
AEK Athens0
⚽ SL (Feb 8, 2026): Panserraikos0
AEK Athens4
⚽ SL (Feb 1, 2026): AEK Athens1
Olympiacos Piraeus1
AEL Larissa
⚽ SL (Feb 28, 2026): OFI Crete3
AEL Larissa0
⚽ SL (Feb 22, 2026): AEL Larissa1
PAOK1
⚽ SL (Feb 15, 2026): Panathinaikos1
AEL Larissa1
⚽ SL (Feb 7, 2026): AEL Larissa1
Panetolikos4
⚽ SL (Jan 31, 2026): Volos0
AEL Larissa2
Match Analysis
Writeup
AEK Athens is enjoying an unbeaten run at the OPAP Arena, winning 8 of their last 10 home matches. Larissa, while resilient, has struggled against the “Big Four” of Greek football this season.
Form & H2H: AEK is unbeaten in their last 5 against Larissa. Their defensive record at home is stellar, conceding only 0.6 goals per match.
Analysis: Larissa often plays for the draw (4 draws in last 10 away games), but AEK’s 2.7 goals-per-game average at home should be too much. Expect a professional performance from the hosts.
Prediction: AEK Athens to win.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for AEK Athens vs AEL Larissa?
Our selection is 1 — AEK Athens to win, priced at approximately 1.22. Tip confidence rating: 54%.
What is AEK Athens's current form?
AEK Athens have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.
How has AEL Larissa been performing recently?
AEL Larissa have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
AEK Athens lead with 3 wins versus AEL Larissa's 0, with 2 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.