WON

Result: AEK Athens 1-0 AEL Larissa

AEK Athens

Home Side

D W D W D

2W 3D 0L

1-0

Greece Super League

AEL Larissa

Away Side

L D D L W

1W 2D 2L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing AEK Athens to win — Saturday, 7th March 2026

Best Odds 1.22

Confidence 54%

Implied Prob 82%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — AEK Athens to win

1.22

Over 1.5 Goals90% AEK Athens Clean Sheet60%

Implied Prob

82%

Based on 1.22 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-28%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

AEK Athens

Draws

AEL Larissa

Meetings

60%

BTTS Rate

60%

Over 2.5

3.2

Avg Goals

Supports Pick AEK Athens won 3 of the last 5 meetings (2 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

AEK Athens

Metric

AEL Larissa

2.2

Goals For / Game

0.6

Goals Against / Game

1.8

60%

Clean Sheet %

20%

2-3-0

W — D — L

1-2-2

Win Rate Comparison

40%

20%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 6.1%

0-1 4.9%

0-2 2.0%

0-3 0.5%

0-4 0.1%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 12.2%

1-1 9.7%

1-2 3.9%

1-3 1.0%

1-4 0.2%

1-5 0.0%

2-0 12.2%

2-1 9.7%

2-2 3.9%

2-3 1.0%

2-4 0.2%

2-5 0.0%

3-0 8.1%

3-1 6.5%

3-2 2.6%

3-3 0.7%

3-4 0.1%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 4.1%

4-1 3.2%

4-2 1.3%

4-3 0.4%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 1.6%

5-1 1.3%

5-2 0.5%

5-3 0.1%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (12.2%) 2-0 (12.2%) 2-1 (9.7%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · A=Home goals ↓ A=Away goals →

📈 Team Ratings Grades

AEK Athens

Overall

5.8 —

Scoring

7.3 —

Defence

8.0 —

AEL Larissa

Overall

3.2 —

Scoring

3.3 —

Defence

4.0 —

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 18%

Home Win & BTTS No 18%

Draw & BTTS Yes 23%

Draw & BTTS No 23%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%

Away Win & BTTS No 10%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 18%

Home Win & Under 2.5 18%

Draw & Over 2.5 23%

Draw & Under 2.5 23%

Away Win & Over 2.5 10%

Away Win & Under 2.5 10%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

⚽ SL (Sep 21, 2025): AEL Larissa1

AEK Athens1

⚽ SL (Feb 15, 2021): AEL Larissa2

AEK Athens4

⚽ SL (Nov 22, 2020): AEK Athens4

AEL Larissa1

⚽ SL (Jan 19, 2020): AEK Athens3

AEL Larissa0

⚽ SL (Oct 5, 2019): AEL Larissa0

AEK Athens0

Recent Form

AEK Athens

⚽ SL (Mar 1, 2026): Volos2

AEK Athens2

⚽ SL (Feb 22, 2026): AEK Athens4

Levadiakos0

⚽ SL (Feb 15, 2026): PAOK0

AEK Athens0

⚽ SL (Feb 8, 2026): Panserraikos0

AEK Athens4

⚽ SL (Feb 1, 2026): AEK Athens1

Olympiacos Piraeus1

AEL Larissa

⚽ SL (Feb 28, 2026): OFI Crete3

AEL Larissa0

⚽ SL (Feb 22, 2026): AEL Larissa1

PAOK1

⚽ SL (Feb 15, 2026): Panathinaikos1

AEL Larissa1

⚽ SL (Feb 7, 2026): AEL Larissa1

Panetolikos4

⚽ SL (Jan 31, 2026): Volos0

AEL Larissa2

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Saturday, 7th March 2026, AEK Athens host AEL Larissa in Greece Super League. We recommend AEK Athens to win as the standout selection.

AEK Athens arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 outings.

AEL Larissa are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 2D 2L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour AEK Athens, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to AEL Larissa's 0, with 2 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: aek athens to win at odds of 1.22 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

AEK Athens is enjoying an unbeaten run at the OPAP Arena, winning 8 of their last 10 home matches. Larissa, while resilient, has struggled against the “Big Four” of Greek football this season.

Form & H2H: AEK is unbeaten in their last 5 against Larissa. Their defensive record at home is stellar, conceding only 0.6 goals per match.

Analysis: Larissa often plays for the draw (4 draws in last 10 away games), but AEK’s 2.7 goals-per-game average at home should be too much. Expect a professional performance from the hosts.

Prediction: AEK Athens to win.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for AEK Athens vs AEL Larissa?

Our selection is 1 — AEK Athens to win, priced at approximately 1.22. Tip confidence rating: 54%.

What is AEK Athens's current form?

AEK Athens have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.

How has AEL Larissa been performing recently?

AEL Larissa have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

AEK Athens lead with 3 wins versus AEL Larissa's 0, with 2 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.

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