WON
Result: Sabail 4-0 Shimal
DirectWinPredict Azerbaijan 1 Liqa Sabail vs Shimal
S

Sabail

Home Side
L W D W W
4W 3D 3L
VS
4-0
Azerbaijan 1 Liqa
S
Shimal
Away Side
L L D L W
3W 1D 6L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Sabail to win — Thursday, 16th April 2026
Best Odds 1.19
Confidence 38%
Implied Prob 84%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Head to Head Record
0
Sabail
1
Draws
1
Shimal
2
Meetings
50%
BTTS Rate
50%
Over 2.5
3.5
Avg Goals
Against Pick Sabail won 0 of the last 2 meetings (1 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Sabail
Metric
Shimal
1.3
Goals For / Game
1.2
1
Goals Against / Game
2.1
50%
Clean Sheet %
10%
4-3-3
W — D — L
3-1-6
Win Rate Comparison
40%
30%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
S0
0-0 6.1%
0-1 6.7%
0-2 3.7%
0-3 1.4%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
S1
1-0 10.3%
1-1 11.4%
1-2 6.3%
1-3 2.3%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
S2
2-0 8.8%
2-1 9.7%
2-2 5.3%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
S3
3-0 5.0%
3-1 5.5%
3-2 3.0%
3-3 1.1%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
S4
4-0 2.1%
4-1 2.3%
4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 0.7%
5-1 0.8%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (10.3%) 2-1 (9.7%) 2-0 (8.8%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · S=Home goals ↓   S=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Sabail Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Shimal Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Sabail
Overall
4.9
Scoring
4.3
Defence
6.7
Shimal
Overall
3.3
Scoring
4.0
Defence
3.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Home Win & BTTS No 26%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Away Win & BTTS No 20%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 22%
Home Win & Under 2.5 22%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 17%
Away Win & Under 2.5 17%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
24.12.25First Division
Sabail3
Shimal4
02.10.25First Division
Shimal0
Sabail0
Recent Form
Sabail
09.04.26First Division
Safa Baku2
Sabail1
L
02.04.26First Division
Sabail1
Baku Sporting0
W
18.03.26First Division
Sabail2
MOIK Baku2
D
12.03.26First Division
Mingachevir0
Sabail1
W
06.03.26First Division
Cebrayil1
Sabail4
W
24.02.26First Division
Sabail0
Baku Sporting0
D
18.02.26First Division
MOIK Baku1
Sabail0
L
12.02.26First Division
Sabail0
Safa Baku0
D
05.02.26First Division
Zaqatala0
Sabail1
W
24.12.25First Division
Sabail3
Shimal4
L
Shimal
09.04.26First Division
Shimal0
Mingachevir3
L
03.04.26First Division
Sahdag Qusar1
Shimal0
L
19.03.26First Division
Shimal0
Zaqatala0
D
11.03.26First Division
Shimal0
Safa Baku2
L
05.03.26First Division
Zaqatala3
Shimal4
W
24.02.26First Division
Shimal3
Cebrayil2
W
19.02.26First Division
Shimal0
Sahdag Qusar1
L
13.02.26First Division
Difai Agsu3
Shimal1
L
07.02.26First Division
Shimal0
Mingachevir3
L
24.12.25First Division
Sabail3
Shimal4
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Azerbaijan 1 Liqa game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.19 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Sabail vs Shimal?
Our selection is 1 — Sabail to win, priced at approximately 1.19. Tip confidence rating: 38%.
What is Sabail's current form?
Sabail have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Shimal been performing recently?
Shimal have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Sabail lead with 0 wins versus Shimal's 1, with 1 draws across 2 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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