WON
Result: Mingachevir 2-1 Difai Agsu
DirectWinPredict Azerbaijan 1 Liqa Mingachevir vs Difai Agsu
M

Mingachevir

Home Side
W W D L W
5W 4D 1L
VS
2-1
Azerbaijan 1 Liqa
D
Difai Agsu
Away Side
L L D L L
2W 1D 7L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Mingachevir to win — Thursday, 16th April 2026
Best Odds 1.34
Confidence 50%
Implied Prob 74.6%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Mingachevir to win
1.34
Over 1.5 Goals80%
Implied Prob
74.6%
Based on 1.34 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-24.6%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
4
Mingachevir
3
Draws
1
Difai Agsu
8
Meetings
63%
BTTS Rate
38%
Over 2.5
3
Avg Goals
Neutral Data Mingachevir won 4 of the last 8 meetings (3 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Mingachevir
Metric
Difai Agsu
1.8
Goals For / Game
1.3
0.7
Goals Against / Game
2.7
50%
Clean Sheet %
0%
5-4-1
W — D — L
2-1-7
Win Rate Comparison
50%
20%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
D0
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
M0
0-0 3.9%
0-1 3.9%
0-2 1.9%
0-3 0.7%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
M1
1-0 8.7%
1-1 8.7%
1-2 4.4%
1-3 1.5%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
M2
2-0 9.8%
2-1 9.8%
2-2 4.9%
2-3 1.6%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
M3
3-0 7.4%
3-1 7.4%
3-2 3.7%
3-3 1.2%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
M4
4-0 4.1%
4-1 4.1%
4-2 2.1%
4-3 0.7%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
M5
5-0 1.9%
5-1 1.9%
5-2 0.9%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-0 (9.8%) 2-1 (9.8%) 1-0 (8.7%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · M=Home goals ↓   D=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Mingachevir Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Difai Agsu Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Mingachevir
Overall
6.2
Scoring
6.0
Defence
7.7
Difai Agsu
Overall
2.3
Scoring
4.3
Defence
1.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 29%
Home Win & BTTS No 24%
Draw & BTTS Yes 14%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Away Win & BTTS No 9%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 32%
Home Win & Under 2.5 21%
Draw & Over 2.5 16%
Draw & Under 2.5 10%
Away Win & Over 2.5 13%
Away Win & Under 2.5 8%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
18.12.25First Division
Difai Agsu1
Mingachevir1
24.09.25First Division
Mingachevir2
Difai Agsu0
01.05.25First Division
Difai Agsu1
Mingachevir4
28.02.25First Division
Mingachevir1
Difai Agsu0
28.11.24First Division
Difai Agsu3
Mingachevir3
01.05.24First Division
Difai Agsu4
Mingachevir1
29.02.24First Division
Mingachevir1
Difai Agsu1
09.11.23First Division
Difai Agsu0
Mingachevir1
Recent Form
Mingachevir
09.04.26First Division
Shimal0
Mingachevir3
W
03.04.26First Division
Mingachevir5
Safa Baku2
W
18.03.26First Division
Baku Sporting1
Mingachevir1
D
12.03.26First Division
Mingachevir0
Sabail1
L
05.03.26First Division
Baku Sporting0
Mingachevir1
W
25.02.26First Division
Mingachevir2
MOIK Baku0
W
19.02.26First Division
Safa Baku2
Mingachevir2
D
13.02.26First Division
Mingachevir0
Zaqatala0
D
07.02.26First Division
Shimal0
Mingachevir3
W
24.12.25First Division
Mingachevir1
Sahdag Qusar1
D
Difai Agsu
09.04.26First Division
Difai Agsu0
Sahdag Qusar3
L
02.04.26First Division
Zaqatala1
Difai Agsu0
L
19.03.26First Division
Difai Agsu1
Cebrayil1
D
12.03.26First Division
Difai Agsu1
Baku Sporting3
L
06.03.26First Division
MOIK Baku2
Difai Agsu1
L
25.02.26First Division
Difai Agsu1
Safa Baku8
L
19.02.26First Division
Zaqatala2
Difai Agsu1
L
13.02.26First Division
Difai Agsu3
Shimal1
W
06.02.26First Division
Sahdag Qusar4
Difai Agsu0
L
25.12.25First Division
Difai Agsu5
Cebrayil2
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Thursday, 16th April 2026, Mingachevir host Difai Agsu in Azerbaijan 1 Liqa. We recommend Mingachevir to win as the standout selection.

Mingachevir arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Difai Agsu are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 1D 7L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Mingachevir, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Difai Agsu's 1, with 3 draws from 8 encounters. Both teams have scored in 63% of those meetings.

Our verdict: mingachevir to win at odds of 1.34 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Azerbaijan 1 Liqa game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.34 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Mingachevir vs Difai Agsu?
Our selection is 1 — Mingachevir to win, priced at approximately 1.34. Tip confidence rating: 50%.
What is Mingachevir's current form?
Mingachevir have won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Difai Agsu been performing recently?
Difai Agsu have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Mingachevir lead with 4 wins versus Difai Agsu's 1, with 3 draws across 8 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 63%.
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