WON

Result: Celta Vigo 1-3 Freiburg

Celta Vigo

Q: What is the recommended bet for Celta Vigo vs Freiburg?

Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.27. Tip confidence rating: 93%.

Home Side

L L W L W

4W 2D 4L

1-3

UEFA Europa League

Freiburg

Away Side

W W L W W

5W 1D 4L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Over 1.5

Backing over 1.5 goals — Thursday, 16th April 2026

Best Odds 1.27

Confidence 93%

Implied Prob 78.7%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals

1.27

Over 1.5 Goals80%

Implied Prob

78.7%

Based on 1.27 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

+14.3%

Value exists

Kelly Stake %

67.1%

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Celta Vigo

Draws

Freiburg

Meetings

BTTS Rate

100%

Over 2.5

Avg Goals

Supports Pick Over 1.5 in 100% of H2H.

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Celta Vigo

Metric

Freiburg

1.4

Goals For / Game

1.8

1.7

Goals Against / Game

1.3

20%

Clean Sheet %

20%

4-2-4

W — D — L

5-1-4

Win Rate Comparison

40%

50%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 4.5%

0-1 7.9%

0-2 6.9%

0-3 4.0%

0-4 1.8%

0-5 0.6%

1-0 6.1%

1-1 10.6%

1-2 9.3%

1-3 5.4%

1-4 2.4%

1-5 0.8%

2-0 4.1%

2-1 7.2%

2-2 6.3%

2-3 3.7%

2-4 1.6%

2-5 0.6%

3-0 1.9%

3-1 3.2%

3-2 2.8%

3-3 1.7%

3-4 0.7%

3-5 0.3%

4-0 0.6%

4-1 1.1%

4-2 1.0%

4-3 0.6%

4-4 0.2%

4-5 0.1%

5-0 0.2%

5-1 0.3%

5-2 0.3%

5-3 0.2%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 1-1 (10.6%) 1-2 (9.3%) 0-1 (7.9%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · C=Home goals ↓ F=Away goals →

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Celta Vigo

Overall

4.6 —

Scoring

4.7 —

Defence

4.3 —

Freiburg

Overall

5.3 ▼

Scoring

6.0 ▼

Defence

5.7 ▼

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 21%

Home Win & BTTS No 17%

Draw & BTTS Yes 8%

Draw & BTTS No 6%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 26%

Away Win & BTTS No 22%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 23%

Home Win & Under 2.5 15%

Draw & Over 2.5 8%

Draw & Under 2.5 6%

Away Win & Over 2.5 29%

Away Win & Under 2.5 19%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

09.04.26Europa League

Freiburg3

Celta Vigo0

Recent Form

Celta Vigo

12.04.26La Liga

Celta Vigo0

Real Oviedo3

09.04.26Europa League

Freiburg3

Celta Vigo0

05.04.26La Liga

Valencia2

Celta Vigo3

22.03.26La Liga

Celta Vigo3

Alaves4

19.03.26Europa League

Lyon0

Celta Vigo2

15.03.26La Liga

Betis1

Celta Vigo1

12.03.26Europa League

Celta Vigo1

Lyon1

06.03.26La Liga

Celta Vigo1

Real Madrid2

01.03.26La Liga

Girona1

Celta Vigo2

26.02.26Europa League

Celta Vigo1

PAOK0

Freiburg

12.04.26Bundesliga

Mainz0

Freiburg1

09.04.26Europa League

Freiburg3

Celta Vigo0

04.04.26Bundesliga

Freiburg2

Bayern Munich3

22.03.26Bundesliga

St. Pauli1

Freiburg2

19.03.26Europa League

Freiburg5

Genk1

15.03.26Bundesliga

Freiburg0

Union Berlin1

12.03.26Europa League

Genk1

Freiburg0

07.03.26Bundesliga

Freiburg3

Bayer Leverkusen3

01.03.26Bundesliga

Eintracht Frankfurt2

Freiburg0

22.02.26Bundesliga

Freiburg2

B. Monchengladbach1

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Thursday, 16th April 2026, Celta Vigo host Freiburg in UEFA Europa League. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.

Celta Vigo arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Freiburg are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 1D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Celta Vigo, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Freiburg's 1, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.27 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this UEFA Europa League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is Over 1.5, and it looks even better when you see the @1.27 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Celta Vigo vs Freiburg?

Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.27. Tip confidence rating: 93%.

What is Celta Vigo's current form?

Celta Vigo have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.

How has Freiburg been performing recently?

Freiburg have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Celta Vigo lead with 0 wins versus Freiburg's 1, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.

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