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Result: Middlesbrough 0-1 Charlton

Middlesbrough

Home Side

W W D D L

2W 2D 1L

0-1

Championship

Charlton

Away Side

W L D D L

1W 2D 2L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Middlesbrough to win — Wednesday, 11th March 2026

Best Odds 1.34

Confidence 55%

Implied Prob 74.6%

50%

30%

20%

⚔ Head to Head Record

Middlesbrough

Draws

Charlton

Meetings

20%

BTTS Rate

40%

Over 2.5

Avg Goals

Supports Pick Middlesbrough won 4 of the last 5 meetings (0 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Middlesbrough

Metric

Charlton

1.8

Goals For / Game

0.8

Goals Against / Game

1.2

40%

Clean Sheet %

20%

2-2-1

W — D — L

1-2-2

Win Rate Comparison

40%

20%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 9.1%

0-1 8.2%

0-2 3.7%

0-3 1.1%

0-4 0.3%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 13.6%

1-1 12.3%

1-2 5.5%

1-3 1.7%

1-4 0.4%

1-5 0.1%

2-0 10.2%

2-1 9.2%

2-2 4.1%

2-3 1.2%

2-4 0.3%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 5.1%

3-1 4.6%

3-2 2.1%

3-3 0.6%

3-4 0.1%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 1.9%

4-1 1.7%

4-2 0.8%

4-3 0.2%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.6%

5-1 0.5%

5-2 0.2%

5-3 0.1%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (13.6%) 2-0 (10.2%) 2-1 (9.2%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · M=Home goals ↓ C=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Middlesbrough Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Charlton Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Middlesbrough

Overall

5.2 —

Scoring

6.0 —

Defence

6.7 —

Charlton

Overall

3.2 —

Scoring

2.7 —

Defence

6.0 —

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 24%

Home Win & BTTS No 16%

Draw & BTTS Yes 24%

Draw & BTTS No 16%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%

Away Win & BTTS No 8%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 16%

Home Win & Under 2.5 24%

Draw & Over 2.5 16%

Draw & Under 2.5 24%

Away Win & Over 2.5 8%

Away Win & Under 2.5 12%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

⚽ CHA (09.12.25): Charlton1

Middlesbrough2

⚽ CHA (07.03.20): Charlton0

Middlesbrough1

⚽ CHA (07.12.19): Middlesbrough1

Charlton0

⚽ CHA (13.03.16): Charlton2

Middlesbrough0

⚽ CHA (31.10.15): Middlesbrough3

Charlton0

Recent Form

Middlesbrough

⚽ CHA (08.03.26): QPR0

Middlesbrough4

⚽ CHA (02.03.26): Birmingham1

Middlesbrough3

⚽ CHA (24.02.26): Middlesbrough1

Leicester1

⚽ CHA (21.02.26): Middlesbrough0

Oxford Utd0

⚽ CHA (16.02.26): Coventry3

Middlesbrough1

Charlton

⚽ CHA (07.03.26): Charlton1

Birmingham0

⚽ CHA (28.02.26): Charlton0

Wrexham1

⚽ CHA (24.02.26): West Brom1

Charlton1

⚽ CHA (21.02.26): Southampton1

Charlton1

⚽ CHA (17.02.26): Charlton1

Portsmouth3

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Wednesday, 11th March 2026, Middlesbrough host Charlton in Championship. We recommend Middlesbrough to win as the standout selection.

Middlesbrough arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Charlton are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 2D 2L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Middlesbrough, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Charlton's 1, with 0 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 20% of those meetings.

Our verdict: middlesbrough to win at odds of 1.34 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Boro is currently 2nd in the Championship and charging toward the Premier League. Under Kim Hellberg, they have become a scoring machine, recently thrashing QPR 4-0. Charlton, sitting 18th, finally ended a winless run with a 1-0 victory over Birmingham, but they arrive at the Riverside with a massive injury list. Missing key players like Godden and Berry, Charlton will struggle to contain a Boro side that averages 58% possession and has one of the highest shot volumes in the league.

Prediction: Middlesbrough Win

Must Win: Boro has a three-point lead over 3rd place; winning home games against bottom-half teams is essential for automatic promotion.
Form Watcher: Boro has two back-to-back away wins (scoring 7 goals); Charlton has lost 3 of their last 5 away games.
H2H: Boro has won the last three meetings with a combined aggregate score of 4-1.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Middlesbrough vs Charlton?

Our selection is 1 — Middlesbrough to win, priced at approximately 1.34. Tip confidence rating: 55%.

What is Middlesbrough's current form?

Middlesbrough have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

How has Charlton been performing recently?

Charlton have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Middlesbrough lead with 4 wins versus Charlton's 1, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.

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