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Result: Middlesbrough 0-1 Charlton

Middlesbrough

Home Side

W W D D L

2W 2D 1L

0-1

Championship

Charlton

Away Side

W L D D L

1W 2D 2L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Middlesbrough to win — Wednesday, 11th March 2026

Best Odds 1.34

Confidence 55%

Implied Prob 74.6%

50%

30%

20%

⚔ Head to Head Record

Middlesbrough

Draws

Charlton

Meetings

20%

BTTS Rate

40%

Over 2.5

Avg Goals

Supports Pick Middlesbrough won 4 of the last 5 meetings (0 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Middlesbrough

Metric

Charlton

1.8

Goals For / Game

0.8

Goals Against / Game

1.2

40%

Clean Sheet %

20%

2-2-1

W — D — L

1-2-2

Win Rate Comparison

40%

20%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 9.1%

0-1 8.2%

0-2 3.7%

0-3 1.1%

0-4 0.3%

0-5 0.0%

1-0 13.6%

1-1 12.3%

1-2 5.5%

1-3 1.7%

1-4 0.4%

1-5 0.1%

2-0 10.2%

2-1 9.2%

2-2 4.1%

2-3 1.2%

2-4 0.3%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 5.1%

3-1 4.6%

3-2 2.1%

3-3 0.6%

3-4 0.1%

3-5 0.0%

4-0 1.9%

4-1 1.7%

4-2 0.8%

4-3 0.2%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.6%

5-1 0.5%

5-2 0.2%

5-3 0.1%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (13.6%) 2-0 (10.2%) 2-1 (9.2%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · M=Home goals ↓ C=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Middlesbrough Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Charlton Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Middlesbrough

Overall

5.2 —

Scoring

6.0 —

Defence

6.7 —

Charlton

Overall

3.2 —

Scoring

2.7 —

Defence

6.0 —

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 24%

Home Win & BTTS No 16%

Draw & BTTS Yes 24%

Draw & BTTS No 16%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%

Away Win & BTTS No 8%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 16%

Home Win & Under 2.5 24%

Draw & Over 2.5 16%

Draw & Under 2.5 24%

Away Win & Over 2.5 8%

Away Win & Under 2.5 12%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

⚽ CHA (09.12.25): Charlton1

Middlesbrough2

⚽ CHA (07.03.20): Charlton0

Middlesbrough1

⚽ CHA (07.12.19): Middlesbrough1

Charlton0

⚽ CHA (13.03.16): Charlton2

Middlesbrough0

⚽ CHA (31.10.15): Middlesbrough3

Charlton0

Recent Form

Middlesbrough

⚽ CHA (08.03.26): QPR0

Middlesbrough4

⚽ CHA (02.03.26): Birmingham1

Middlesbrough3

⚽ CHA (24.02.26): Middlesbrough1

Leicester1

⚽ CHA (21.02.26): Middlesbrough0

Oxford Utd0

⚽ CHA (16.02.26): Coventry3

Middlesbrough1

Charlton

⚽ CHA (07.03.26): Charlton1

Birmingham0

⚽ CHA (28.02.26): Charlton0

Wrexham1

⚽ CHA (24.02.26): West Brom1

Charlton1

⚽ CHA (21.02.26): Southampton1

Charlton1

⚽ CHA (17.02.26): Charlton1

Portsmouth3

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Boro is currently 2nd in the Championship and charging toward the Premier League. Under Kim Hellberg, they have become a scoring machine, recently thrashing QPR 4-0. Charlton, sitting 18th, finally ended a winless run with a 1-0 victory over Birmingham, but they arrive at the Riverside with a massive injury list. Missing key players like Godden and Berry, Charlton will struggle to contain a Boro side that averages 58% possession and has one of the highest shot volumes in the league.

Prediction: Middlesbrough Win

Must Win: Boro has a three-point lead over 3rd place; winning home games against bottom-half teams is essential for automatic promotion.
Form Watcher: Boro has two back-to-back away wins (scoring 7 goals); Charlton has lost 3 of their last 5 away games.
H2H: Boro has won the last three meetings with a combined aggregate score of 4-1.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Middlesbrough vs Charlton?

Our selection is 1 — Middlesbrough to win, priced at approximately 1.34. Tip confidence rating: 55%.

What is Middlesbrough's current form?

Middlesbrough have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

How has Charlton been performing recently?

Charlton have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Middlesbrough lead with 4 wins versus Charlton's 1, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.

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