WON
Result: Mbeya City 0-1 Simba
DirectWinPredict Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara Mbeya City vs Simba
M

Mbeya City

Home Side
W L D L L
2W 3D 5L
VS
0-1
Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara
S
Simba
Away Side
W W W W W
10W 1D 0L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
2
Backing Simba to win — Wednesday, 17th June 2026
Best Odds 1.23
Confidence 68%
Implied Prob 81.3%
H
20%
D
30%
A
50%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
2 — Simba to win
1.23
Simba Clean Sheet55%
Implied Prob
81.3%
Based on 1.23 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-13.3%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
1
Mbeya City
1
Draws
8
Simba
10
Meetings
40%
BTTS Rate
60%
Over 2.5
3
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Simba won 8 of 10 meetings.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Mbeya City
Metric
Simba
0.6
Goals For / Game
2.5
2
Goals Against / Game
0.5
30%
Clean Sheet %
55%
2-3-5
W — D — L
10-1-0
Win Rate Comparison
20%
91%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
M0
0-0 6.1%
0-1 13.7%
0-2 15.4%
0-3 11.5%
0-4 6.5%
0-5 2.9%
M1
1-0 3.3%
1-1 7.5%
1-2 8.5%
1-3 6.4%
1-4 3.6%
1-5 1.6%
M2
2-0 0.9%
2-1 2.1%
2-2 2.3%
2-3 1.8%
2-4 1.0%
2-5 0.4%
M3
3-0 0.2%
3-1 0.4%
3-2 0.4%
3-3 0.3%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.1%
M4
4-0 0.0%
4-1 0.1%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
M5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 0-2 (15.4%) 0-1 (13.7%) 0-3 (11.5%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · M=Home goals ↓   S=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Mbeya City Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Simba Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Mbeya City
Overall
2.9
Scoring
2.0
Defence
3.3
Simba
Overall
9.4
Scoring
8.5
Defence
8.2
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 6%
Home Win & BTTS No 9%
Draw & BTTS Yes 6%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Away Win & BTTS No 40%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 9%
Home Win & Under 2.5 6%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 43%
Away Win & Under 2.5 27%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
04.12.25LKB
Simba3
Mbeya City0
13.04.25FAC
Simba3
Mbeya City1
18.01.23LKB
Simba3
Mbeya City2
23.11.22LKB
Mbeya City1
Simba1
16.06.22LKB
Simba3
Mbeya City0
17.01.22LKB
Mbeya City1
Simba0
22.06.21LKB
Simba4
Mbeya City1
13.12.20LKB
Mbeya City0
Simba1
24.06.20LKB
Mbeya City0
Simba2
03.11.19LKB
Simba4
Mbeya City0
Recent Form
Mbeya City
13.06.26LKB
Mbeya City1
Mtibwa Sugar0
W
26.05.26LKB
Singida Black Stars4
Mbeya City1
L
21.05.26LKB
Namungo1
Mbeya City1
D
13.05.26LKB
Mbeya City0
Coastal Union2
L
09.05.26LKB
JKT Tanzania1
Mbeya City0
L
04.05.26LKB
Tanzania Prisons1
Mbeya City2
W
30.04.26LKB
Mbeya City0
Mashujaa0
D
16.04.26LKB
Young Africans6
Mbeya City0
L
12.04.26FAC
Singida Black Stars5
Mbeya City1
L
09.04.26LKB
Mbeya City0
Azam0
D
Simba
14.06.26LKB
Simba2
Pamba1
W
24.05.26LKB
Simba1
Dodoma Jiji0
W
21.05.26LKB
Coastal Union1
Simba2
W
17.05.26FAC
Simba4
TRA United0
W
14.05.26LKB
Mashujaa0
Simba3
W
10.05.26LKB
Simba4
Tanzania Prisons0
W
06.05.26LKB
Simba1
JKT Tanzania0
W
03.05.26LKB
Simba2
Young Africans2
D
19.04.26LKB
Namungo1
Simba3
W
15.04.26LKB
Fountain Gate0
Simba3
W
12.04.26FAC
Simba3
Dodoma Jiji1
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Wednesday, 17th June 2026, Mbeya City host Simba in Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara. We recommend Simba to win as the standout selection.

Mbeya City arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Simba are travelling well, with a record of 10W 1D 0L across 11 matches.

Historical meetings favour Mbeya City, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Simba's 8, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: simba to win at odds of 1.23 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 2, and it looks even better when you see the @1.23 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Mbeya City vs Simba?
Our selection is 2 — Simba to win, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is Mbeya City's current form?
Mbeya City have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Simba been performing recently?
Simba have recorded 10 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats from 11 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Mbeya City lead with 1 wins versus Simba's 8, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
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