PENDING
Result: 1X — Marseille to win or draw
DirectWinPredict Ligue 1 Marseille vs Auxerre
M

Marseille

Home Side
W L W L D
2W 2D 1L
VS
Ligue 1
A
Auxerre
Away Side
D D L W D
1W 3D 1L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1X
Backing Marseille to win or draw — Friday, 13th March 2026
Best Odds 1.12
Confidence 60%
Implied Prob 89.3%
Head to Head Record
3
Marseille
0
Draws
2
Auxerre
5
Meetings
40%
BTTS Rate
60%
Over 2.5
2.6
Avg Goals
Neutral Data Insufficient H2H data.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Marseille
Metric
Auxerre
1.6
Goals For / Game
1
1.6
Goals Against / Game
1.2
20%
Clean Sheet %
40%
2-2-1
W — D — L
1-3-1
Win Rate Comparison
40%
20%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
M0
0-0 6.7%
0-1 8.7%
0-2 5.7%
0-3 2.5%
0-4 0.8%
0-5 0.2%
M1
1-0 9.4%
1-1 12.2%
1-2 8.0%
1-3 3.5%
1-4 1.1%
1-5 0.3%
M2
2-0 6.6%
2-1 8.6%
2-2 5.6%
2-3 2.4%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.2%
M3
3-0 3.1%
3-1 4.0%
3-2 2.6%
3-3 1.1%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
M4
4-0 1.1%
4-1 1.4%
4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
M5
5-0 0.3%
5-1 0.4%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-1 (12.2%) 1-0 (9.4%) 2-1 (8.6%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · M=Home goals ↓   A=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Marseille
Overall
5.2
Scoring
5.3
Defence
4.7
Auxerre
Overall
3.8
Scoring
3.3
Defence
6.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Home Win & BTTS No 18%
Draw & BTTS Yes 23%
Draw & BTTS No 23%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 22%
Home Win & Under 2.5 14%
Draw & Over 2.5 27%
Draw & Under 2.5 18%
Away Win & Over 2.5 11%
Away Win & Under 2.5 8%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
⚽ L1 (Nov 1, 2025): Auxerre0
Marseille1
⚽ L1 (Feb 22, 2025): Auxerre3
Marseille0
⚽ L1 (Nov 8, 2024): Marseille1
Auxerre3
⚽ L1 (Apr 30, 2023): Marseille2
Auxerre1
⚽ L1 (Sep 3, 2022): Auxerre0
Marseille2
Recent Form
Marseille
⚽ L1 (Mar 7, 2026): Toulouse0
Marseille1
⚽ CDF (Mar 4, 2026): Marseille2
Toulouse (5-6)2
⚽ L1 (Mar 1, 2026): Marseille3
Lyon2
⚽ L1 (Feb 20, 2026): Brest2
Marseille0
⚽ L1 (Feb 14, 2026): Marseille2
Strasbourg2
Auxerre
⚽ L1 (Mar 7, 2026): Auxerre0
Strasbourg0
⚽ L1 (Mar 1, 2026): Lorient2
Auxerre2
⚽ L1 (Feb 22, 2026): Auxerre0
Rennes3
⚽ L1 (Feb 15, 2026): Metz1
Auxerre3
⚽ L1 (Feb 8, 2026): Auxerre0
Paris FC0
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Friday, 13th March 2026, Marseille host Auxerre in Ligue 1. We recommend Marseille to win or draw as the standout selection.

Marseille arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Auxerre are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 3D 1L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Marseille, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Auxerre's 2, with 0 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: marseille to win or draw at odds of 1.12 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Marseille’s home form has been nothing short of spectacular. They are unbeaten in their last five matches at the Vélodrome, scoring at least twice in each of those encounters. Armed with the league’s second-best attacking record, 53 goals in 25 rounds, their offensive firepower is undeniable. Players like Mason Greenwood have turned their home ground into a fortress. However, their defense can occasionally be exposed; they are the only team in the current top four to have conceded over 30 goals this season, meaning they rely heavily on simply outscoring the opposition.

Auxerre arrives sitting in 16th place with just 19 points, enduring their worst-ever Ligue 1 campaign at this stage. They have managed just one win in their last ten league outings and are leaking goals, having conceded 35 times. A troubling statistic for the visitors is their inability to recover; they have lost 14 of the 15 league matches in which they conceded first. To get anything from this game, Auxerre will have to rely on a low block, immense luck, and quick counter-attacks.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Marseille vs Auxerre?
Our selection is 1X — Marseille to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.12. Tip confidence rating: 60%.
What is Marseille's current form?
Marseille have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.
How has Auxerre been performing recently?
Auxerre have recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Marseille lead with 3 wins versus Auxerre's 2, with 0 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
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