WON
Result: Lyon W 3-1 Montpellier W
DirectWinPredict Premiere Ligue Women Lyon W vs Montpellier W
L

Lyon W

Home Side
W D L W W
6W 2D 2L
VS
3-1
Premiere Ligue Women
M
Montpellier W
Away Side
W L W L L
2W 2D 6L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Lyon W to win — Wednesday, 6th May 2026
Best Odds 1.26
Confidence 70%
Implied Prob 79.4%
H
60%
D
20%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Lyon W to win
1.26
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals85%
Implied Prob
79.4%
Based on 1.26 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-9.4%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
10
Lyon W
0
Draws
0
Montpellier W
10
Meetings
50%
BTTS Rate
80%
Over 2.5
4
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Lyon W won 10 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Lyon W
Metric
Montpellier W
3
Goals For / Game
1
0.7
Goals Against / Game
1.9
50%
Clean Sheet %
10%
6-2-2
W — D — L
2-2-6
Win Rate Comparison
60%
20%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
L0
0-0 3.7%
0-1 3.1%
0-2 1.3%
0-3 0.4%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
L1
1-0 9.0%
1-1 7.7%
1-2 3.3%
1-3 0.9%
1-4 0.2%
1-5 0.0%
L2
2-0 11.1%
2-1 9.4%
2-2 4.0%
2-3 1.1%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
L3
3-0 9.0%
3-1 7.7%
3-2 3.3%
3-3 0.9%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
L4
4-0 5.5%
4-1 4.7%
4-2 2.0%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
L5
5-0 2.7%
5-1 2.3%
5-2 1.0%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-0 (11.1%) 2-1 (9.4%) 1-0 (9.0%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · L=Home goals ↓   M=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Lyon W Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Montpellier W Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Lyon W
Overall
6.6
Scoring
10.0
Defence
7.7
Montpellier W
Overall
2.6
Scoring
3.3
Defence
3.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Home Win & BTTS No 30%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 39%
Home Win & Under 2.5 21%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 13%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
07.11.25PL
Montpellier W1
Lyon5
31.01.25PL
Montpellier W1
Lyon4
05.10.24PL
Lyon W4
Montpellier0
21.01.24PL
Montpellier W1
Lyon2
14.01.24COU
Lyon W4
Montpellier0
10.11.23PL
Lyon W5
Montpellier0
28.01.23COU
Lyon W2
Montpellier0
21.01.23PL
Lyon W2
Montpellier0
23.09.22PL
Montpellier W1
Lyon3
22.01.22PL
Montpellier W2
Lyon3
Recent Form
Lyon W
02.05.26CL
Lyon W3
Arsenal W1
W
29.04.26PL
Nantes W1
Lyon W1
D
26.04.26CL
Arsenal W2
Lyon W1
L
22.04.26PL
Lyon W4
Dijon W0
W
05.04.26COU
Strasbourg W0
Lyon W6
W
02.04.26CL
Lyon W4
Wolfsburg W0
W
28.03.26PL
Strasbourg W2
Lyon W2
D
24.03.26CL
Wolfsburg W1
Lyon W0
L
21.03.26PL
Fleury 91 W0
Lyon W2
W
18.03.26COU
Lyon W7
Le Havre W0
W
Montpellier W
25.04.26PL
Montpellier W1
St Etienne W0
W
22.04.26PL
Montpellier W0
Paris FC W2
L
28.03.26PL
Marseille W1
Montpellier W2
W
22.03.26PL
Montpellier W2
PSG W3
L
11.03.26PL
Lens W2
Montpellier W1
L
21.02.26PL
Nantes W2
Montpellier W2
D
07.02.26PL
Montpellier W1
Le Havre W2
L
31.01.26PL
Fleury 91 W1
Montpellier W0
L
24.01.26COU
PSG W5
Montpellier W0
L
17.01.26PL
Montpellier W1
Dijon W1
D
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Wednesday, 6th May 2026, Lyon W host Montpellier W in Premiere Ligue Women. We recommend Lyon W to win as the standout selection.

Lyon W arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Montpellier W are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 2D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Lyon W, who lead the head-to-head with 10 wins to Montpellier W's 0, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: lyon w to win at odds of 1.26 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Premiere Ligue Women game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.26 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Lyon W vs Montpellier W?
Our selection is 1 — Lyon W to win, priced at approximately 1.26. Tip confidence rating: 70%.
What is Lyon W's current form?
Lyon W have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Montpellier W been performing recently?
Montpellier W have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Lyon W lead with 10 wins versus Montpellier W's 0, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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