PENDING
Result: Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
DirectWinPredict Club Friendly Heracles vs Groningen
H

Heracles

Home Side
L L L L L
0W 2D 8L
VS
6:00 pm
Club Friendly
G
Groningen
Away Side
L W W L L
5W 2D 3L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals — Wednesday, 8th July 2026
Best Odds 1.39
Confidence 72%
Implied Prob 71.9%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.39
Over 1.5 Goals85%
Implied Prob
71.9%
Based on 1.39 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+0.1%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
0.2%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
5
Heracles
1
Draws
4
Groningen
10
Meetings
50%
BTTS Rate
50%
Over 2.5
3
Avg Goals
Neutral Data Over 2.5 in 50% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Heracles
Metric
Groningen
0.4
Goals For / Game
1.6
2.3
Goals Against / Game
1.2
10%
Clean Sheet %
30%
0-2-8
W — D — L
5-2-3
Win Rate Comparison
0%
50%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
G0
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
H0
0-0 6.4%
0-1 12.5%
0-2 12.2%
0-3 7.9%
0-4 3.9%
0-5 1.5%
H1
1-0 5.1%
1-1 10.0%
1-2 9.7%
1-3 6.3%
1-4 3.1%
1-5 1.2%
H2
2-0 2.1%
2-1 4.0%
2-2 3.9%
2-3 2.5%
2-4 1.2%
2-5 0.5%
H3
3-0 0.6%
3-1 1.1%
3-2 1.0%
3-3 0.7%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
H4
4-0 0.1%
4-1 0.2%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
H5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 0-1 (12.5%) 0-2 (12.2%) 1-1 (10.0%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · H=Home goals ↓   G=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Heracles
Overall
0.6
Scoring
1.3
Defence
2.3
Groningen
Overall
5.6
Scoring
5.3
Defence
6.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Home Win & BTTS No 0%
Draw & BTTS Yes 15%
Draw & BTTS No 15%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 36%
Away Win & BTTS No 36%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 0%
Home Win & Under 2.5 0%
Draw & Over 2.5 17%
Draw & Under 2.5 12%
Away Win & Over 2.5 43%
Away Win & Under 2.5 28%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
17.05.26ERE
Heracles1
Groningen2
29.08.25ERE
Groningen4
Heracles0
23.04.25ERE
Groningen4
Heracles1
28.01.25ERE
Heracles1
Groningen1
02.08.24CF
Groningen2
Heracles0
21.03.24CF
Heracles4
Groningen1
24.04.22ERE
Groningen0
Heracles1
18.12.21ERE
Heracles4
Groningen2
30.01.21ERE
Heracles1
Groningen0
23.12.20ERE
Groningen0
Heracles1
Recent Form
Heracles
17.05.26ERE
Heracles1
Groningen2
L
10.05.26ERE
Telstar3
Heracles0
L
03.05.26ERE
Zwolle1
Heracles0
L
26.04.26ERE
Heracles0
FC Volendam2
L
11.04.26ERE
Heracles0
Ajax3
L
05.04.26ERE
Heerenveen4
Heracles1
L
20.03.26ERE
Heracles1
Excelsior1
D
15.03.26ERE
AZ Alkmaar4
Heracles0
L
06.03.26ERE
Heracles0
Utrecht0
D
28.02.26ERE
Heracles1
PSV3
L
Groningen
21.05.26ERE
Ajax2
Groningen0
L
17.05.26ERE
Heracles1
Groningen2
W
10.05.26ERE
Groningen2
Nijmegen1
W
02.05.26ERE
Groningen2
Excelsior3
L
25.04.26ERE
Feyenoord3
Groningen1
L
11.04.26ERE
Groningen0
G.A. Eagles0
D
04.04.26ERE
Telstar0
Groningen2
W
22.03.26ERE
Groningen3
AZ Alkmaar0
W
13.03.26ERE
Zwolle1
Groningen1
D
07.03.26ERE
Groningen3
Ajax1
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Wednesday, 8th July 2026, Heracles host Groningen at N/A in Club Friendly. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Heracles arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Groningen are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 2D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Heracles, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Groningen's 4, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.39 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Club Friendly preview lives.

The home team strides in on 5 losses from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at N/A, and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 2 wins, 3 losses from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is Over 2.5, priced at @1.39, which the numbers settle at around 90%. The whistle goes at 6:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Heracles vs Groningen?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.39. Tip confidence rating: 72%.
What is Heracles's current form?
Heracles have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 8 of their last 10 matches.
How has Groningen been performing recently?
Groningen have recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Heracles lead with 5 wins versus Groningen's 4, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
Scroll to Top
18+Gambling can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.