PENDING
Result: Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
DirectWinPredict Australia NPL Northern NSW Charlestown Azzurri vs Westoin Bears
C

Charlestown Azzurri

Home Side
L L D L L
1W 1D 8L
VS
11:00 am
Australia NPL Northern NSW
W
Westoin Bears
Away Side
L D D L W
4W 3D 3L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals — Tuesday, 7th July 2026
Best Odds 1.36
Confidence 80%
Implied Prob 73.5%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.36
Over 2.5 Goals75% Over 1.5 Goals95% BTTS — Yes75%
Implied Prob
73.5%
Based on 1.36 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+6.5%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
24.4%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
6
Charlestown Azzurri
1
Draws
3
Westoin Bears
10
Meetings
70%
BTTS Rate
70%
Over 2.5
3.3
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Over 2.5 in 70% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Charlestown Azzurri
Metric
Westoin Bears
1.4
Goals For / Game
1.6
3.2
Goals Against / Game
1.7
0%
Clean Sheet %
20%
1-1-8
W — D — L
4-3-3
Win Rate Comparison
10%
40%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
W0
W1
W2
W3
W4
W5
C0
0-0 1.9%
0-1 4.6%
0-2 5.6%
0-3 4.4%
0-4 2.7%
0-5 1.3%
C1
1-0 3.0%
1-1 7.2%
1-2 8.6%
1-3 6.9%
1-4 4.1%
1-5 2.0%
C2
2-0 2.3%
2-1 5.6%
2-2 6.7%
2-3 5.3%
2-4 3.2%
2-5 1.5%
C3
3-0 1.2%
3-1 2.9%
3-2 3.4%
3-3 2.8%
3-4 1.7%
3-5 0.8%
C4
4-0 0.5%
4-1 1.1%
4-2 1.3%
4-3 1.1%
4-4 0.6%
4-5 0.3%
C5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.1%
Top Predicted Scores 1-2 (8.6%) 1-1 (7.2%) 1-3 (6.9%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · C=Home goals ↓   W=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Charlestown Azzurri
Overall
1.3
Scoring
4.7
Defence
0.0
Westoin Bears
Overall
4.9
Scoring
5.3
Defence
4.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Home Win & BTTS No 4%
Draw & BTTS Yes 22%
Draw & BTTS No 7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 43%
Away Win & BTTS No 14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 11%
Home Win & Under 2.5 4%
Draw & Over 2.5 22%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 43%
Away Win & Under 2.5 14%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
07.03.26NSW
Weston Bears2
Charlestown Azzurri4
30.07.25NSW
Weston Bears2
Charlestown Azzurri1
16.02.25NSW
Charlestown Azzurri3
Weston Bears1
07.08.24NSW
Weston Bears0
Charlestown Azzurri2
07.04.24NSW
Charlestown Azzurri1
Weston Bears3
27.08.23NSW
Charlestown Azzurri1
Weston Bears0
09.07.23NSW
Weston Bears1
Charlestown Azzurri1
16.04.23NSW
Charlestown Azzurri1
Weston Bears2
24.07.22NSW
Charlestown Azzurri3
Weston Bears0
08.05.22NSW
Weston Bears2
Charlestown Azzurri3
Recent Form
Charlestown Azzurri
01.07.26NSW
Newcastle Olympic7
Charlestown Azzurri1
L
27.06.26NSW
Charlestown Azzurri1
Belmont Swansea Utd.3
L
24.06.26NSW
Charlestown Azzurri2
Cooks Hill United2
D
21.06.26NSW
Kahibah4
Charlestown Azzurri1
L
14.06.26NSW
Charlestown Azzurri1
Lambton J.3
L
16.05.26NSW
Adamstown Rosebud2
Charlestown Azzurri0
L
10.05.26NSW
Charlestown Azzurri3
Broadmeadow5
L
02.05.26NSW
Maitland2
Charlestown Azzurri3
W
26.04.26NSW
Charlestown Azzurri1
Valentine2
L
18.04.26NSW
Edgeworth E.2
Charlestown Azzurri1
L
Westoin Bears
28.06.26NSW
Broadmeadow5
Weston Bears1
L
20.06.26NSW
Cooks Hill United3
Weston Bears3
D
13.06.26NSW
Weston Bears2
Belmont Swansea Utd.2
D
23.05.26NSW
Weston Bears0
Maitland1
L
17.05.26NSW
Newcastle Olympic1
Weston Bears2
W
09.05.26NSW
Weston Bears0
Valentine2
L
03.05.26NSW
Weston Bears2
Edgeworth E.2
D
25.04.26NSW
Adamstown Rosebud0
Weston Bears2
W
19.04.26NSW
Kahibah1
Weston Bears2
W
11.04.26NSW
Lambton J.0
Weston Bears2
W
Charlestown Azzurri (Home)
27.06.26NSW
Charlestown Azzurri1
Belmont Swansea Utd.3
L
24.06.26NSW
Charlestown Azzurri2
Cooks Hill United2
D
14.06.26NSW
Charlestown Azzurri1
Lambton J.3
L
10.05.26NSW
Charlestown Azzurri3
Broadmeadow5
L
26.04.26NSW
Charlestown Azzurri1
Valentine2
L
22.03.26NSW
Charlestown Azzurri1
Kahibah0
W
01.03.26NSW
Charlestown Azzurri1
Newcastle Olympic2
L
22.02.26NSW
Charlestown Azzurri2
Adamstown Rosebud0
W
03.08.25NSW
Charlestown Azzurri0
Adamstown Rosebud4
L
19.07.25NSW
Charlestown Azzurri1
Cooks Hill United2
L
Westoin Bears (Away)
28.06.26NSW
Broadmeadow5
Weston Bears1
L
20.06.26NSW
Cooks Hill United3
Weston Bears3
D
17.05.26NSW
Newcastle Olympic1
Weston Bears2
W
25.04.26NSW
Adamstown Rosebud0
Weston Bears2
W
19.04.26NSW
Kahibah1
Weston Bears2
W
11.04.26NSW
Lambton J.0
Weston Bears2
W
13.03.26NSW
Belmont Swansea Utd.2
Weston Bears4
W
28.02.26NSW
Maitland1
Weston Bears2
W
24.08.25NSW
Broadmeadow2
Weston Bears0
L
18.08.25NSW
Edgeworth E.1
Weston Bears2
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Tuesday, 7th July 2026, Charlestown Azzurri host Westoin Bears at Lisle Carr Oval (Lake Macquarie) in Australia NPL Northern NSW. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Charlestown Azzurri arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Westoin Bears are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 3D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Charlestown Azzurri, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Westoin Bears's 3, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.36 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Australia NPL Northern NSW preview lives.

The home team strides in on 1 draw, 4 losses from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Lisle Carr Oval (Lake Macquarie), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is Over 2.5, priced at @1.36, which the numbers settle at around 90%. The whistle goes at 11:00 am.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Charlestown Azzurri vs Westoin Bears?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.36. Tip confidence rating: 80%.
What is Charlestown Azzurri's current form?
Charlestown Azzurri have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 8 of their last 10 matches.
How has Westoin Bears been performing recently?
Westoin Bears have recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Charlestown Azzurri lead with 6 wins versus Westoin Bears's 3, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
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