WON
Result: Celtic 3-1 Dunfermline
DirectWinPredict Scottish Cup Celtic vs Dunfermline
C

Celtic

Home Side
W W W W W
9W 0D 1L
VS
3-1
Scottish Cup
D
Dunfermline
Away Side
L D D W D
3W 4D 3L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Celtic to win — Saturday, 23rd May 2026
Best Odds 1.22
Confidence 78%
Implied Prob 82%
H
60%
D
20%
A
20%
Head to Head Record
10
Celtic
0
Draws
0
Dunfermline
10
Meetings
50%
BTTS Rate
70%
Over 2.5
2.8
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Celtic won 10 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Celtic
Metric
Dunfermline
2.6
Goals For / Game
0.8
1.2
Goals Against / Game
0.9
10%
Clean Sheet %
50%
9-0-1
W — D — L
3-4-3
Win Rate Comparison
90%
30%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
D0
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
C0
0-0 6.4%
0-1 6.4%
0-2 3.2%
0-3 1.1%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
C1
1-0 11.2%
1-1 11.2%
1-2 5.6%
1-3 1.9%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
C2
2-0 9.8%
2-1 9.8%
2-2 4.9%
2-3 1.6%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
C3
3-0 5.7%
3-1 5.7%
3-2 2.9%
3-3 1.0%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.1%
C4
4-0 2.5%
4-1 2.5%
4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
C5
5-0 0.9%
5-1 0.9%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (11.2%) 2-0 (9.8%) 2-1 (9.8%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · C=Home goals ↓   D=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Celtic Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Dunfermline Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Celtic
Overall
9.0
Scoring
8.7
Defence
6.0
Dunfermline
Overall
4.2
Scoring
2.7
Defence
7.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 35%
Home Win & BTTS No 29%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 32%
Home Win & Under 2.5 32%
Draw & Over 2.5 7%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 11%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
17.08.19LC
Celtic2
(a.e.t. 1-1) Dunfermline1
22.02.12PRE
Celtic2
Dunfermline0
02.01.12PRE
Dunfermline0
Celtic3
23.11.11PRE
Celtic2
Dunfermline1
07.02.10SC
Dunfermline2
Celtic4
26.05.07SC
Celtic1
Dunfermline0
03.03.07PRE
Celtic2
Dunfermline1
10.12.06PRE
Dunfermline1
Celtic2
16.09.06PRE
Celtic1
Dunfermline0
19.03.06LC
Dunfermline0
Celtic3
Recent Form
Celtic
16.05.26PRE
Celtic3
Hearts1
W
13.05.26PRE
Motherwell2
Celtic3
W
10.05.26PRE
Celtic3
Rangers1
W
03.05.26PRE
Hibernian1
Celtic2
W
25.04.26PRE
Celtic3
Falkirk1
W
19.04.26SC
Celtic6
St. Mirren2
W
11.04.26PRE
Celtic1
St. Mirren0
W
05.04.26PRE
Dundee FC1
Celtic2
W
22.03.26PRE
Dundee Utd2
Celtic0
L
14.03.26PRE
Celtic3
Motherwell1
W
Dunfermline
15.05.26PRE
Partick Thistle2
Dunfermline1
L
12.05.26PRE
Dunfermline1
Partick Thistle1
D
08.05.26PRE
Arbroath0
Dunfermline0
D
05.05.26PRE
Dunfermline1
Arbroath0
W
01.05.26CHA
Dunfermline0
Arbroath0
D
25.04.26CHA
Queen’s Park0
Dunfermline2
W
21.04.26CHA
Dunfermline0
St Johnstone2
L
18.04.26SC
Dunfermline1
(a.e.t. 0-0) Falkirk0
W
14.04.26CHA
Airdrieonians2
Dunfermline2
D
11.04.26CHA
Partick Thistle2
Dunfermline0
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Scottish Cup game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.22 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Celtic vs Dunfermline?
Our selection is 1 — Celtic to win, priced at approximately 1.22. Tip confidence rating: 78%.
What is Celtic's current form?
Celtic have won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Dunfermline been performing recently?
Dunfermline have recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Celtic lead with 10 wins versus Dunfermline's 0, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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