WON
Result:
AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Sparta Prague
A
AZ Alkmaar
Home Side
L
W
L
W
W
3W 0D 2L
VS
2-1
S
Sparta Prague
Away Side
L
L
W
D
W
2W 1D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1X
Backing AZ Alkmaar to win or draw — Thursday, 12th March 2026
Best Odds
1.28
Confidence
90%
Implied Prob
78.1%
H
70%
D
20%
A
10%
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1X — AZ Alkmaar to win or draw
1.28
Over 1.5 Goals80%
Implied Prob
78.1%
Based on 1.28 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+11.9%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
54.3%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head
Record
Neutral Data
Insufficient H2H data.
Key Stats Duel
Comparison
AZ Alkmaar
Metric
Sparta Prague
2
Goals For / Game
1.6
1.2
Goals Against / Game
1.2
20%
Clean Sheet %
40%
3-0-2
W — D — L
2-1-2
Win Rate Comparison
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
A0
0-0
5.0%
0-1
7.0%
0-2
4.9%
0-3
2.3%
0-4
0.8%
0-5
0.2%
A1
1-0
8.0%
1-1
11.2%
1-2
7.8%
1-3
3.6%
1-4
1.3%
1-5
0.4%
A2
2-0
6.4%
2-1
8.9%
2-2
6.3%
2-3
2.9%
2-4
1.0%
2-5
0.3%
A3
3-0
3.4%
3-1
4.8%
3-2
3.3%
3-3
1.6%
3-4
0.5%
3-5
0.2%
A4
4-0
1.4%
4-1
1.9%
4-2
1.3%
4-3
0.6%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.1%
A5
5-0
0.4%
5-1
0.6%
5-2
0.4%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Top Predicted Scores
1-1 (11.2%)
2-1 (8.9%)
1-0 (8.0%)
■ Most likely (tip)
■ Possible (tip)
■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip
Poisson model · A=Home goals ↓ S=Away goals →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
AZ Alkmaar Win
1.43
70%
Draw
5
20%
Sparta Prague Win
10
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
28%
Home Win & BTTS No
28%
Draw & BTTS Yes
5%
Draw & BTTS No
5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
18%
Away Win & BTTS No
18%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
33%
Home Win & Under 2.5
22%
Draw & Over 2.5
5%
Draw & Under 2.5
4%
Away Win & Over 2.5
22%
Away Win & Under 2.5
14%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake Amount
—
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
Match Archives
History Log
Head to Head
No data found.
Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar
⚽ ERE (07.03.26): PSV2
AZ Alkmaar1
⚽ KNV (04.03.26): AZ Alkmaar2
Telstar1
⚽ ERE (01.03.26): Utrecht2
AZ Alkmaar0
⚽ UECL (26.02.26): AZ Alkmaar4
FC Noah0
⚽ ERE (22.02.26): AZ Alkmaar3
Sparta Rotterdam1
Sparta Prague
⚽ 1L (08.03.26): Slavia Prague3
Sparta Prague1
⚽ CUP (03.03.26): Mlada Boleslav1
Sparta Prague (4-2)0
⚽ 1L (28.02.26): Sparta Prague5
Ostrava2
⚽ 1L (22.02.26): Viktoria Plzeň0
Sparta Prague0
⚽ 1L (15.02.26): Sparta Prague2
Hradec Kralove0
Match Analysis
Writeup
AZ Alkmaar has had a bit of a rollercoaster season domestically, but under the lights at the AFAS Stadion, they are a completely different beast. Sparta Prague brings a very solid unbeaten run into this Conference League clash, making them no pushovers. However, any form watcher will note that AZ’s home advantage and attacking depth usually act as a great equalizer against highly structured teams. AZ knows a loss here deeply complicates their European journey, making it a definitive must-not-lose scenario.
Prediction: 1X (AZ Alkmaar Win or Draw)
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Prague?
Our selection is 1X — AZ Alkmaar to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 90%.
What is AZ Alkmaar's current form?
AZ Alkmaar have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.
How has Sparta Prague been performing recently?
Sparta Prague have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
No recent head-to-head data available.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game.