WON
Result:
ACF Fiorentina 2-1 Rakow
A
ACF Fiorentina
Home Side
D
L
L
W
W
2W 1D 2L
VS
2-1
R
Rakow
Away Side
W
W
L
W
D
3W 1D 1L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 1.5
Backing over 1.5 goals — Thursday, 12th March 2026
Best Odds
1.28
Confidence
84%
Implied Prob
78.1%
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.28
BTTS — No70%
ACF Fiorentina Clean Sheet60%
Rakow Clean Sheet60%
Implied Prob
78.1%
Based on 1.28 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+5.9%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
26.9%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head
Record
Neutral Data
No head-to-head data on record.
Key Stats Duel
Comparison
ACF Fiorentina
Metric
Rakow
1.2
Goals For / Game
1.6
1.4
Goals Against / Game
1
60%
Clean Sheet %
60%
2-1-2
W — D — L
3-1-1
Win Rate Comparison
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
R0
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
A0
0-0
7.4%
0-1
11.1%
0-2
8.4%
0-3
4.2%
0-4
1.6%
0-5
0.5%
A1
1-0
8.2%
1-1
12.3%
1-2
9.2%
1-3
4.6%
1-4
1.7%
1-5
0.5%
A2
2-0
4.5%
2-1
6.7%
2-2
5.1%
2-3
2.5%
2-4
1.0%
2-5
0.3%
A3
3-0
1.7%
3-1
2.5%
3-2
1.9%
3-3
0.9%
3-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
A4
4-0
0.5%
4-1
0.7%
4-2
0.5%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
A5
5-0
0.1%
5-1
0.2%
5-2
0.1%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Predicted Scores
1-1 (12.3%)
0-1 (11.1%)
1-2 (9.2%)
■ Most likely (tip)
■ Possible (tip)
■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip
Poisson model · A=Home goals ↓ R=Away goals →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
10%
Home Win & BTTS No
23%
Draw & BTTS Yes
5%
Draw & BTTS No
12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
15%
Away Win & BTTS No
35%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
17%
Home Win & Under 2.5
17%
Draw & Over 2.5
9%
Draw & Under 2.5
9%
Away Win & Over 2.5
25%
Away Win & Under 2.5
25%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake Amount
—
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
Match Archives
History Log
Head to Head
No data found.
Recent Form
ACF Fiorentina
⚽ SA (08.03.26): Fiorentina0
Parma0
⚽ SA (02.03.26): Udinese3
Fiorentina0
⚽ UECL (26.02.26): Fiorentina2
Jagiellonia (5-4)4
⚽ SA (23.02.26): Fiorentina1
Pisa0
⚽ UECL (19.02.26): Jagiellonia0
Fiorentina3
Rakow
⚽ EKS (08.03.26): Rakow2
Pogon Szczecin0
⚽ CUP (05.03.26): Avia Swidnik1
Rakow (AET)2
⚽ EKS (01.03.26): Lech Poznan4
Rakow3
⚽ EKS (21.02.26): Rakow1
Termalica B-B.0
⚽ EKS (14.02.26): Zaglebie0
Rakow0
Match Analysis
Writeup
Fiorentina relies heavily on the energy of the Artemio Franchi crowd to dictate the tempo and suffocate opponents. Rakow has proven they can punch above their weight, but dealing with Fiorentina’s relentless pressing is a massive hurdle. Looking at their tactical setups, Fiorentina will push high, leaving just enough space for Rakow to counter. This specific tactical dynamic almost always results in goals. It’s a must-win for La Viola to assert European dominance, so expect them to come out swinging.
Prediction: Over 1.5 Goals
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for ACF Fiorentina vs Rakow?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 84%.
What is ACF Fiorentina's current form?
ACF Fiorentina have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.
How has Rakow been performing recently?
Rakow have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
No recent head-to-head data available.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game.