PENDING
Result: 1 — Vikingur Reykjavik to win
DirectWinPredict Iceland Besta deild karla Vikingur Reykjavik vs Keflavik
V

Vikingur Reykjavik

Home Side
W L D W W
6W 1D 3L
VS
9:00 pm
Iceland Besta deild karla
K
Keflavik
Away Side
W L D W D
4W 3D 3L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Vikingur Reykjavik to win — Friday, 24th July 2026
Best Odds 1.23
Confidence 65%
Implied Prob 81.3%
H
60%
D
20%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Vikingur Reykjavik to win
1.23
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals90% BTTS — Yes75%
Implied Prob
81.3%
Based on 1.23 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-16.3%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
7
Vikingur Reykjavik
1
Draws
1
Keflavik
9
Meetings
67%
BTTS Rate
78%
Over 2.5
3.9
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Vikingur Reykjavik won 7 of the last 9 meetings (1 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Vikingur Reykjavik
Metric
Keflavik
2
Goals For / Game
1.8
1.4
Goals Against / Game
1.8
20%
Clean Sheet %
10%
6-1-3
W — D — L
4-3-3
Win Rate Comparison
60%
40%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
K0
K1
K2
K3
K4
K5
V0
0-0 3.0%
0-1 4.8%
0-2 3.9%
0-3 2.1%
0-4 0.8%
0-5 0.3%
V1
1-0 5.7%
1-1 9.2%
1-2 7.3%
1-3 3.9%
1-4 1.6%
1-5 0.5%
V2
2-0 5.5%
2-1 8.7%
2-2 7.0%
2-3 3.7%
2-4 1.5%
2-5 0.5%
V3
3-0 3.5%
3-1 5.5%
3-2 4.4%
3-3 2.4%
3-4 0.9%
3-5 0.3%
V4
4-0 1.6%
4-1 2.6%
4-2 2.1%
4-3 1.1%
4-4 0.5%
4-5 0.1%
V5
5-0 0.6%
5-1 1.0%
5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.1%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (8.7%) 1-0 (5.7%) 3-1 (5.5%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · V=Home goals ↓   K=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Vikingur Reykjavik Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Keflavik Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Vikingur Reykjavik
Overall
6.3
Scoring
6.7
Defence
5.3
Keflavik
Overall
4.9
Scoring
6.0
Defence
4.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 38%
Home Win & BTTS No 13%
Draw & BTTS Yes 13%
Draw & BTTS No 4%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 25%
Away Win & BTTS No 8%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 35%
Home Win & Under 2.5 15%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 23%
Away Win & Under 2.5 10%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
03.05.26BK
Keflavik1
Vikingur Reykjavik3
08.07.23BK
Keflavik3
Vikingur Reykjavik3
04.05.23BK
Vikingur Reykjavik4
Keflavik1
11.09.22BK
Keflavik0
Vikingur Reykjavik3
28.04.22BK
Vikingur Reykjavik4
Keflavik1
19.07.21BK
Keflavik1
Vikingur Reykjavik2
02.05.21BK
Vikingur Reykjavik1
Keflavik0
23.02.20CUP
Keflavik0
Vikingur Reykjavik2
09.03.19CUP
Vikingur Reykjavik2
Keflavik4
Recent Form
Vikingur Reykjavik
21.07.26CL
Vikingur Reykjavik2
H. Beer Sheva1
W
18.07.26BK
Thor Akureyri2
Vikingur Reykjavik1
L
14.07.26CL
Gyor2
Vikingur Reykjavik2
D
07.07.26CL
Vikingur Reykjavik1
Gyor0
W
02.07.26BK
Vikingur Reykjavik3
KA Akureyri2
W
28.06.26CUP
Breidablik3
Vikingur Reykjavik0
L
25.06.26BK
Breidablik1
Vikingur Reykjavik4
W
21.06.26BK
Fram0
Vikingur Reykjavik5
W
16.06.26BK
Vikingur Reykjavik2
KR Reykjavik0
W
12.06.26CUP
Akranes1
Vikingur Reykjavik2
W
Keflavik
20.07.26BK
Keflavik5
Akranes2
W
13.07.26BK
Breidablik2
Keflavik1
L
06.07.26BK
Keflavik1
Fram1
D
28.06.26BK
Keflavik3
KR Reykjavik2
W
21.06.26BK
Valur1
Keflavik1
D
14.06.26BK
Keflavik1
Hafnarfjordur2
L
31.05.26BK
Vestmannaeyjar6
Keflavik1
L
22.05.26BK
Keflavik1
Thor Akureyri0
W
17.05.26BK
Keflavik1
Stjarnan1
D
08.05.26BK
Akranes1
Keflavik3
W
Vikingur Reykjavik (Home)
21.07.26CL
Vikingur Reykjavik2
H. Beer Sheva1
W
07.07.26CL
Vikingur Reykjavik1
Gyor0
W
02.07.26BK
Vikingur Reykjavik3
KA Akureyri2
W
16.06.26BK
Vikingur Reykjavik2
KR Reykjavik0
W
22.05.26BK
Vikingur Reykjavik5
Hafnarfjordur0
W
08.05.26BK
Vikingur Reykjavik6
Thor Akureyri0
W
27.04.26BK
Vikingur Reykjavik4
Akranes0
W
23.04.26BK
Vikingur Reykjavik3
Stjarnan2
W
10.04.26BK
Vikingur Reykjavik1
Breidablik1
D
29.03.26SC
Vikingur Reykjavik4
Vestri0
W
Keflavik (Away)
13.07.26BK
Breidablik2
Keflavik1
L
21.06.26BK
Valur1
Keflavik1
D
31.05.26BK
Vestmannaeyjar6
Keflavik1
L
08.05.26BK
Akranes1
Keflavik3
W
26.04.26BK
KA Akureyri1
Keflavik2
W
17.04.26BK
Fram3
Keflavik1
L
12.04.26BK
KR Reykjavik3
Keflavik2
L
14.02.26CUP
Vestri2
Keflavik3
W
30.01.26CUP
Stjarnan2
Keflavik1
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Friday, 24th July 2026, Vikingur Reykjavik host Keflavik at Víkingsvöllur (Reykjavík) in Iceland Besta deild karla. We recommend Vikingur Reykjavik to win as the standout selection.

Vikingur Reykjavik arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Keflavik are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 3D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Vikingur Reykjavik, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Keflavik's 1, with 1 draws from 9 encounters. Both teams have scored in 67% of those meetings.

Our verdict: vikingur reykjavik to win at odds of 1.23 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Iceland Besta deild karla preview lives.

The home team strides in on 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at Víkingsvöllur (Reykjavík), and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 1, priced at @1.23, which the numbers settle at around 60,20,20%. The whistle goes at 9:00 pm.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Vikingur Reykjavik vs Keflavik?
Our selection is 1 — Vikingur Reykjavik to win, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 65%.
What is Vikingur Reykjavik's current form?
Vikingur Reykjavik have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Keflavik been performing recently?
Keflavik have recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Vikingur Reykjavik lead with 7 wins versus Keflavik's 1, with 1 draws across 9 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 67%.
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