PENDING
Result: 1 — Essendon Royals SC to win
DirectWinPredict Australia Victoria PL 2 Essendon Royals SC vs Kingston City
E

Essendon Royals SC

Home Side
D W D W W
6W 2D 2L
VS
11:30 am
Australia Victoria PL 2
K
Kingston City
Away Side
L D W L W
1W 1D 8L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Essendon Royals SC to win — Friday, 24th July 2026
Best Odds 1.27
Confidence 62%
Implied Prob 78.7%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Essendon Royals SC to win
1.27
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals90%
Implied Prob
78.7%
Based on 1.27 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-16.7%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
1
Essendon Royals SC
0
Draws
0
Kingston City
1
Meetings
0%
BTTS Rate
100%
Over 2.5
3
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Essendon Royals SC won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Essendon Royals SC
Metric
Kingston City
2.8
Goals For / Game
0.7
1.2
Goals Against / Game
2.9
10%
Clean Sheet %
10%
6-2-2
W — D — L
1-1-8
Win Rate Comparison
60%
10%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
K0
K1
K2
K3
K4
K5
E0
0-0 2.2%
0-1 2.1%
0-2 1.0%
0-3 0.3%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
E1
1-0 6.4%
1-1 6.1%
1-2 2.9%
1-3 0.9%
1-4 0.2%
1-5 0.0%
E2
2-0 9.1%
2-1 8.6%
2-2 4.1%
2-3 1.3%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
E3
3-0 8.6%
3-1 8.2%
3-2 3.9%
3-3 1.2%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
E4
4-0 6.2%
4-1 5.8%
4-2 2.8%
4-3 0.9%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
E5
5-0 3.5%
5-1 3.3%
5-2 1.6%
5-3 0.5%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-0 (9.1%) 2-1 (8.6%) 3-0 (8.6%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · E=Home goals ↓   K=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Essendon Royals SC Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Kingston City Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Essendon Royals SC
Overall
6.6
Scoring
9.3
Defence
6.0
Kingston City
Overall
1.3
Scoring
2.3
Defence
0.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 39%
Home Win & BTTS No 32%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 6%
Away Win & BTTS No 5%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 46%
Home Win & Under 2.5 25%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 7%
Away Win & Under 2.5 4%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
17.04.26VPL2
Kingston City0
Essendon Royals SC3
Recent Form
Essendon Royals SC
17.07.26VPL2
Whittlesea United1
Essendon Royals SC1
D
10.07.26VPL2
Essendon Royals SC3
Box Hill2
W
04.07.26VPL2
Bayside Argonauts1
Essendon Royals SC1
D
19.06.26VPL2
Essendon Royals SC3
Werribee City2
W
13.06.26VPL2
Malvern2
Essendon Royals SC4
W
05.06.26VPL2
Essendon Royals SC8
Springvale0
W
30.05.26VPL2
Goulburn Valley Suns1
Essendon Royals SC0
L
22.05.26VPL2
Essendon Royals SC5
Nunawading City1
W
15.05.26VPL2
Essendon Royals SC3
Moreland City1
W
08.05.26VPL2
Keilor Park1
Essendon Royals SC0
L
Kingston City
18.07.26VPL2
Kingston City2
Goulburn Valley Suns3
L
10.07.26VPL2
Whittlesea United1
Kingston City1
D
03.07.26VPL2
Kingston City4
Nunawading City0
W
19.06.26VPL2
Box Hill3
Kingston City1
L
12.06.26VPL2
Kingston City2
Moreland City1
W
06.06.26VPL2
Bayside Argonauts5
Kingston City0
L
29.05.26VPL2
Keilor Park2
Kingston City0
L
22.05.26VPL2
Kingston City0
Werribee City2
L
15.05.26VPL2
Kingston City0
Eastern Lions4
L
09.05.26VPL2
Kingston City0
Malvern5
L
Essendon Royals SC (Home)
10.07.26VPL2
Essendon Royals SC3
Box Hill2
W
19.06.26VPL2
Essendon Royals SC3
Werribee City2
W
05.06.26VPL2
Essendon Royals SC8
Springvale0
W
22.05.26VPL2
Essendon Royals SC5
Nunawading City1
W
15.05.26VPL2
Essendon Royals SC3
Moreland City1
W
01.05.26VPL2
Essendon Royals SC2
Eastern Lions1
W
10.04.26VPL2
Essendon Royals SC4
Whittlesea United3
W
20.03.26VPL2
Essendon Royals SC1
Bayside Argonauts4
L
06.03.26VPL2
Essendon Royals SC1
Malvern2
L
21.02.26VPL2
Essendon Royals SC2
Goulburn Valley Suns3
L
Kingston City (Away)
10.07.26VPL2
Whittlesea United1
Kingston City1
D
19.06.26VPL2
Box Hill3
Kingston City1
L
06.06.26VPL2
Bayside Argonauts5
Kingston City0
L
29.05.26VPL2
Keilor Park2
Kingston City0
L
24.04.26VPL2
Springvale3
Kingston City2
L
11.04.26VPL2
Goulburn Valley Suns2
Kingston City0
L
20.03.26VPL2
Nunawading City2
Kingston City1
L
14.02.26VPL2
Werribee City1
Kingston City2
W
17.08.25VPL
Melbourne City U216
Kingston City0
L
25.07.25VPL
Northcote City7
Kingston City1
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Friday, 24th July 2026, Essendon Royals SC host Kingston City at N/A in Australia Victoria PL 2. We recommend Essendon Royals SC to win as the standout selection.

Essendon Royals SC arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Kingston City are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 1D 8L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Essendon Royals SC, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Kingston City's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: essendon royals sc to win at odds of 1.27 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


The most useful habit in football betting is also the simplest: update your view based on what is actually happening, not on what used to be true. Reputations lag reality, and reality is where this Australia Victoria PL 2 preview lives.

The home team strides in on 3 wins, 2 draws from their last 5 games. We are interested less in the bare results and more in what they reveal about the current side. Is the attack clicking, carving out clear chances, or scratching around for half-openings? Is the defence organised, or has it been holding on with its fingertips? Those answers shape everything about how this plays out at N/A, and they sit in the recent matches rather than the season-long summary.

The away side arrives carrying 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games. The road is the great revealer in this game. Confidence, intensity, the way a team responds to falling behind in a hostile ground — all of it shows up clearly in recent away outings, and all of it is easy to miss if you only glance at the league position. We did not glance. We looked.

Bring the two halves together and a structural edge appears, the kind that is there for anyone willing to do the reading. Our position is 1, priced at @1.27, which the numbers settle at around 50,30,20%. The whistle goes at 11:30 am.

That is our weight of opinion, evidence and all. The temptation in a fixture like this is to trust the bigger reputation, but reputations are slow to update and form is not — and that lag is precisely where the value tends to hide. Do not leave without scanning the other fixtures we have broken down today — the value rarely sits in just one place.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Essendon Royals SC vs Kingston City?
Our selection is 1 — Essendon Royals SC to win, priced at approximately 1.27. Tip confidence rating: 62%.
What is Essendon Royals SC's current form?
Essendon Royals SC have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Kingston City been performing recently?
Kingston City have recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Essendon Royals SC lead with 1 wins versus Kingston City's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
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