WON

Result: Spain 3-0 Serbia

Spain

Home Side

D W W W W

7W 3D 0L

3-0

International Friendly

Serbia

Away Side

W L W L L

4W 3D 3L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Spain to win — Friday, 27th March 2026

Best Odds 1.21

Confidence 58%

Implied Prob 82.6%

60%

20%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — Spain to win

1.21

Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals85%

Implied Prob

82.6%

Based on 1.21 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-24.6%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Spain

Draws

Serbia

Meetings

20%

BTTS Rate

20%

Over 2.5

1.4

Avg Goals

Against Pick Spain won 2 of the last 5 meetings (3 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Spain

Metric

Serbia

3.4

Goals For / Game

1.1

1.3

Goals Against / Game

1.1

50%

Clean Sheet %

40%

7-3-0

W — D — L

4-3-3

Win Rate Comparison

70%

40%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 3.2%

0-1 3.8%

0-2 2.3%

0-3 0.9%

0-4 0.3%

0-5 0.1%

1-0 7.1%

1-1 8.6%

1-2 5.1%

1-3 2.1%

1-4 0.6%

1-5 0.2%

2-0 8.0%

2-1 9.6%

2-2 5.8%

2-3 2.3%

2-4 0.7%

2-5 0.2%

3-0 6.0%

3-1 7.2%

3-2 4.3%

3-3 1.7%

3-4 0.5%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 3.4%

4-1 4.1%

4-2 2.4%

4-3 1.0%

4-4 0.3%

4-5 0.1%

5-0 1.5%

5-1 1.8%

5-2 1.1%

5-3 0.4%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.6%) 2-0 (8.0%) 3-1 (7.2%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · S=Home goals ↓ S=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Spain Win

60%

1.67

Draw

20%

Serbia Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Spain

Overall

7.9 ▼

Scoring

10.0 ▼

Defence

5.7 ▼

Serbia

Overall

4.9 —

Scoring

3.7 —

Defence

6.3 —

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 20%

Home Win & BTTS No 30%

Draw & BTTS Yes 8%

Draw & BTTS No 13%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%

Away Win & BTTS No 17%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 33%

Home Win & Under 2.5 18%

Draw & Over 2.5 14%

Draw & Under 2.5 7%

Away Win & Over 2.5 19%

Away Win & Under 2.5 10%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

15.10.24

UNL: Spain3

Serbia0

05.09.24

UNL: Serbia0

Spain0

26.05.12

FI: Spain2

Serbia0

07.09.05

WCQ: Spain1

Serbia & Montenegro1

30.03.05

WCQ: Serbia & Montenegro0

Spain0

Recent Form

Spain

18.11.25

WCQ: Spain2

Turkey2

15.11.25

WCQ: Georgia0

Spain4

14.10.25

WCQ: Spain4

Bulgaria0

11.10.25

WCQ: Spain2

Georgia0

07.09.25

WCQ: Turkey0

Spain6

04.09.25

WCQ: Bulgaria0

Spain3

08.06.25

UNL: Portugal2

Spain (5-3 pens)2

05.06.25

UNL: Spain5

France4

23.03.25

UNL: Spain4

Netherlands3

20.03.25

UNL: Netherlands2

Spain2

Serbia

26.03.26

FI: Qatar0

Serbia0

16.11.25

WCQ: Serbia2

Latvia1

13.11.25

WCQ: England2

Serbia0

14.10.25

WCQ: Andorra1

Serbia3

11.10.25

WCQ: Serbia0

Albania1

09.09.25

WCQ: Serbia0

England5

10.06.25

WCQ: Serbia3

Andorra0

07.06.25

WCQ: Albania0

Serbia0

23.03.25

UNL: Serbia2

Austria0

20.03.25

UNL: Austria1

Serbia1

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Friday, 27th March 2026, Spain host Serbia in International Friendly. We recommend Spain to win as the standout selection.

Spain arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Serbia are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 3D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Spain, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Serbia's 0, with 3 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 20% of those meetings.

Our verdict: spain to win at odds of 1.21 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this International Friendly game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.21 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Spain vs Serbia?

Our selection is 1 — Spain to win, priced at approximately 1.21. Tip confidence rating: 58%.

What is Spain's current form?

Spain have won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.

How has Serbia been performing recently?

Serbia have recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Spain lead with 2 wins versus Serbia's 0, with 3 draws across 5 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.

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