WON
Result: Caernarfon 0-4 TNS
DirectWinPredict Wales Cymru Premier Caernarfon vs TNS
C

Caernarfon

Home Side
L L W W L
3W 3D 4L
VS
0-4
Wales Cymru Premier
T
TNS
Away Side
L W W L W
8W 0D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals — Friday, 27th March 2026
Best Odds 1.43
Confidence 72%
Implied Prob 69.9%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.43
Under 2.5 Goals65% BTTS — No65%
Implied Prob
69.9%
Based on 1.43 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+2.1%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
6.9%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
0
Caernarfon
10
Draws
0
TNS
10
Meetings
50%
BTTS Rate
70%
Over 2.5
3.7
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Over 2.5 in 70% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Caernarfon
Metric
TNS
1.6
Goals For / Game
0
1.5
Goals Against / Game
0
20%
Clean Sheet %
0%
3-3-4
W — D — L
8-0-2
Win Rate Comparison
30%
80%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
C0
0-0 21.2%
0-1 15.9%
0-2 6.0%
0-3 1.5%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.0%
C1
1-0 17.0%
1-1 12.7%
1-2 4.8%
1-3 1.2%
1-4 0.2%
1-5 0.0%
C2
2-0 6.8%
2-1 5.1%
2-2 1.9%
2-3 0.5%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
C3
3-0 1.8%
3-1 1.4%
3-2 0.5%
3-3 0.1%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
C4
4-0 0.4%
4-1 0.3%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
C5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 0-0 (21.2%) 1-0 (17.0%) 0-1 (15.9%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · C=Home goals ↓   T=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Caernarfon
Overall
3.9
Scoring
5.3
Defence
5.0
TNS
Overall
8.0
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 8%
Home Win & BTTS No 16%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 22%
Away Win & BTTS No 42%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 8%
Home Win & Under 2.5 16%
Draw & Over 2.5 4%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 22%
Away Win & Under 2.5 42%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
20.02.26
PL: The New Saints2
Caernarfon Town1
28.11.25
PL: The New Saints2
Caernarfon Town0
04.11.25
LC: The New Saints3
Caernarfon Town0
07.10.25
PL: Caernarfon Town1
The New Saints3
11.02.25
PL: Caernarfon Town0
The New Saints1
26.12.24
PL: Caernarfon Town2
The New Saints5
23.02.24
PL: Caernarfon Town1
The New Saints8
26.09.23
PL: Caernarfon Town1
The New Saints3
03.01.23
PL: Caernarfon Town0
The New Saints1
01.04.22
PL: Caernarfon Town0
The New Saints3
Recent Form
Caernarfon
21.03.26
PL: Barry Town2
Caernarfon Town1
L
13.03.26
PL: Caernarfon Town2
Connah’s Quay4
L
08.03.26
FAC: Rhyl 18791
Caernarfon Town2
W
27.02.26
PL: Caernarfon Town3
Colwyn Bay0
W
20.02.26
PL: The New Saints2
Caernarfon Town1
L
14.02.26
PL: Caernarfon Town0
Barry Town2
L
06.02.26
PL: Connah’s Quay1
Caernarfon Town1
D
31.01.26
FAC: Caernarfon Town4
Colwyn Bay1
W
24.01.26
PL: Penybont0
Caernarfon Town0
D
13.01.26
PL: Caernarfon Town2
Connah’s Quay2
D
TNS
20.03.26
PL: The New Saints0
Colwyn Bay2
L
14.03.26
PL: Penybont1
The New Saints2
W
03.03.26
PL: Connah’s Quay1
The New Saints2
W
28.02.26
CUP: The New Saints0
Barry Town2
L
20.02.26
PL: The New Saints2
Caernarfon Town1
W
13.02.26
PL: Colwyn Bay0
The New Saints2
W
07.02.26
PL: The New Saints6
Penybont0
W
24.01.26
PL: The New Saints1
Barry Town0
W
13.01.26
PL: The New Saints1
Colwyn Bay0
W
06.01.26
PL: The New Saints2
Bala Town1
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Friday, 27th March 2026, Caernarfon host TNS in Wales Cymru Premier. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Caernarfon arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

TNS are travelling well, with a record of 8W 0D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Caernarfon, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to TNS's 0, with 10 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.43 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Wales Cymru Premier game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is Over 2.5, and it looks even better when you see the @1.43 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Caernarfon vs TNS?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.43. Tip confidence rating: 72%.
What is Caernarfon's current form?
Caernarfon have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has TNS been performing recently?
TNS have recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Caernarfon lead with 0 wins versus TNS's 0, with 10 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
Scroll to Top
18+Gambling can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.