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Result: Shkendija 1-2 Pelister
DirectWinPredict North Macedonia 1. MFL Shkendija vs Pelister
S

Shkendija

Home Side
W W W D W
7W 1D 2L
VS
1-2
North Macedonia 1. MFL
P
Pelister
Away Side
L D L D L
1W 3D 6L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Shkendija to win — Saturday, 4th April 2026
Best Odds 1.21
Confidence 47%
Implied Prob 82.6%
H
60%
D
20%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Shkendija to win
1.21
Under 2.5 Goals85% BTTS — No80%
Implied Prob
82.6%
Based on 1.21 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-35.6%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
0
Shkendija
9
Draws
1
Pelister
10
Meetings
30%
BTTS Rate
30%
Over 2.5
1.8
Avg Goals
Against Pick Shkendija won 0 of the last 10 meetings (9 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Shkendija
Metric
Pelister
0
Goals For / Game
0.7
0
Goals Against / Game
1.1
0%
Clean Sheet %
20%
7-1-2
W — D — L
1-3-6
Win Rate Comparison
70%
10%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
S0
0-0 40.7%
0-1 14.2%
0-2 2.5%
0-3 0.3%
0-4 0.0%
0-5 0.0%
S1
1-0 22.4%
1-1 7.8%
1-2 1.4%
1-3 0.2%
1-4 0.0%
1-5 0.0%
S2
2-0 6.2%
2-1 2.2%
2-2 0.4%
2-3 0.0%
2-4 0.0%
2-5 0.0%
S3
3-0 1.1%
3-1 0.4%
3-2 0.1%
3-3 0.0%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
S4
4-0 0.2%
4-1 0.1%
4-2 0.0%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (22.4%) 2-0 (6.2%) 2-1 (2.2%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · S=Home goals ↓   P=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Shkendija Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Pelister Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Shkendija
Overall
7.3
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
Pelister
Overall
1.9
Scoring
2.3
Defence
6.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Home Win & BTTS No 56%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 16%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 2%
Away Win & BTTS No 8%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 11%
Home Win & Under 2.5 60%
Draw & Over 2.5 3%
Draw & Under 2.5 17%
Away Win & Over 2.5 2%
Away Win & Under 2.5 9%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
02.03.26
1. MFL: KF Shkëndija2
FK Pelister1
06.10.25
1. MFL: FK Pelister0
KF Shkëndija0
09.03.25
1. MFL: KF Shkëndija1
FK Pelister0
24.11.24
1. MFL: FK Pelister0
KF Shkëndija1
31.08.24
1. MFL: KF Shkëndija2
FK Pelister0
06.04.22
1. MFL: FK Pelister0
KF Shkëndija2
05.12.21
1. MFL: KF Shkëndija2
FK Pelister1
28.08.21
1. MFL: FK Pelister2
KF Shkëndija2
14.03.21
1. MFL: KF Shkëndija1
FK Pelister0
16.12.20
1. MFL: KF Shkëndija0
FK Pelister1
Recent Form
Shkendija
21.03.26
1ML: Makedonija GjP0
Shkëndija1
W
18.03.26
CUP: FC Struga2
(ET) Shkëndija3
W
15.03.26
1ML: Shkëndija1
KF Arsimi0
W
09.03.26
1ML: Shkëndija1
Brera Strumica1
D
05.03.26
1ML: FK Vardar0
Shkëndija1
W
02.03.26
1ML: Shkëndija2
FK Pelister1
W
26.02.26
UECL: Samsunspor4
Shkëndija0
L
22.02.26
1ML: FK Sileks1
Shkëndija2
W
19.02.26
UECL: Shkëndija0
Samsunspor1
L
14.02.26
1ML: GFK Tikvesh1
Shkëndija4
W
Pelister
22.03.26
1ML: FK Pelister0
FC Struga2
L
16.03.26
1ML: FK Sileks0
FK Pelister0
D
08.03.26
1ML: GFK Tikvesh1
FK Pelister0
L
05.03.26
1ML: FK Pelister0
FK Sileks0
D
02.03.26
1ML: KF Shkëndija2
FK Pelister1
L
21.02.26
1ML: FK Pelister1
FC Struga1
D
17.02.26
1ML: KF Bashkimi1
FK Pelister0
L
12.02.26
1ML: FK Pelister4
FK Rabotnički1
W
30.01.26
Friendly: FK Pelister0
Pakhtakor1
L
28.01.26
Friendly: Navbahor Namangan2
FK Pelister1
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Saturday, 4th April 2026, Shkendija host Pelister in North Macedonia 1. MFL . We recommend Shkendija to win as the standout selection.

Shkendija arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Pelister are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 3D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Shkendija, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Pelister's 1, with 9 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: shkendija to win at odds of 1.21 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this North Macedonia 1. MFL game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash.

The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer. Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed.

By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today. It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look.

When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page. The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.21 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it.

Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Shkendija vs Pelister?
Our selection is 1 — Shkendija to win, priced at approximately 1.21. Tip confidence rating: 47%.
What is Shkendija's current form?
Shkendija have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Pelister been performing recently?
Pelister have recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Shkendija lead with 0 wins versus Pelister's 1, with 9 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 0.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
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