WON

Result: Rodina Moscow 5-2 FC Chayka

Rodina Moscow

Home Side

D W W L D

2W 4D 4L

5-2

Russia FNL

FC Chayka

Away Side

D W L L L

4W 2D 4L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Rodina Moscow to win — Monday, 23rd March 2026

Best Odds 1.30

Confidence 34%

Implied Prob 76.9%

50%

30%

20%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — Rodina Moscow to win

1.30

Over 1.5 Goals80%

Implied Prob

76.9%

Based on 1.30 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-42.9%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Rodina Moscow

Draws

FC Chayka

Meetings

50%

BTTS Rate

50%

Over 2.5

2.3

Avg Goals

Against Pick Rodina Moscow won 1 of the last 4 meetings (2 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Rodina Moscow

Metric

FC Chayka

1.2

Goals For / Game

1.9

1.4

Goals Against / Game

1.7

20%

Clean Sheet %

40%

2-4-4

W — D — L

4-2-4

Win Rate Comparison

20%

40%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 4.5%

0-1 7.4%

0-2 6.1%

0-3 3.4%

0-4 1.4%

0-5 0.5%

1-0 6.5%

1-1 10.8%

1-2 8.9%

1-3 4.9%

1-4 2.0%

1-5 0.7%

2-0 4.7%

2-1 7.8%

2-2 6.5%

2-3 3.6%

2-4 1.5%

2-5 0.5%

3-0 2.3%

3-1 3.8%

3-2 3.1%

3-3 1.7%

3-4 0.7%

3-5 0.2%

4-0 0.8%

4-1 1.4%

4-2 1.1%

4-3 0.6%

4-4 0.3%

4-5 0.1%

5-0 0.2%

5-1 0.4%

5-2 0.3%

5-3 0.2%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (7.8%) 1-0 (6.5%) 2-0 (4.7%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · R=Home goals ↓ F=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Rodina Moscow Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

FC Chayka Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Rodina Moscow

Overall

3.2 ▼

Scoring

4.0 ▼

Defence

5.3 ▼

FC Chayka

Overall

4.6 ▲

Scoring

6.3 ▲

Defence

4.3 ▲

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 13%

Home Win & BTTS No 9%

Draw & BTTS Yes 20%

Draw & BTTS No 13%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 27%

Away Win & BTTS No 18%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 13%

Home Win & Under 2.5 9%

Draw & Over 2.5 20%

Draw & Under 2.5 13%

Away Win & Over 2.5 27%

Away Win & Under 2.5 18%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

04.10.25

FNL: FK Chayka0

Rodina Moscow0

10.11.24

FNL: Rodina Moscow2

FK Chayka0

11.08.24

FNL: FK Chayka2

Rodina Moscow 2

09.02.23

CF: Rodina Moscow1

FK Chayka 2

Recent Form

Rodina Moscow

14.03.26

FNL: SKA Khabarovsk2

Rodina Moscow2

08.03.26

FNL: Torpedo Moscow0

Rodina Moscow2

02.03.26

FNL: Rodina Moscow2

Shinnik Yaroslavl1

20.02.26

CF: Chelyabinsk1

Rodina Moscow0

20.02.26

CF: Rodina Moscow0

Chernomorets0

18.02.26

CF: Pyunik Yerevan2

Rodina Moscow1

15.02.26

CF: Sochi1

Rodina Moscow1

15.02.26

CF: Sochi3

Rodina Moscow2

11.02.26

CF: Ufa2

Rodina Moscow2

11.02.26

CF: S. Kostroma2

Rodina Moscow0

FC Chayka

14.03.26

FNL: S. Kostroma1

FK Chayka1

07.03.26

FNL: FK Chayka1

Saratov0

01.03.26

FNL: FK Chayka1

SKA Khabarovsk3

20.02.26

CF: FK Chayka3

Krylya Sovetov5

14.02.26

CF: FK Chayka2

Arsenal Tula4

11.02.26

CF: FK Chayka0

Altai0

06.02.26

CF: Graficar Beograd0

FK Chayka4

05.02.26

CF: FK Chayka2

Alay Osh1

28.01.26

CF: Yenisey0

FK Chayka3

20.01.26

CF: FK Chayka2

Ozgon3

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Russia FNL game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.30 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Rodina Moscow vs FC Chayka?

Our selection is 1 — Rodina Moscow to win, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 34%.

What is Rodina Moscow's current form?

Rodina Moscow have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.

How has FC Chayka been performing recently?

FC Chayka have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Rodina Moscow lead with 1 wins versus FC Chayka's 1, with 2 draws across 4 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.

🔗 More Tips Today Related