WON
Result: Riga 3-0 Super Nova
DirectWinPredict Latvia Virsliga Riga vs Super Nova
R

Riga

Home Side
W D W W W
7W 3D 0L
VS
3-0
Latvia Virsliga
S
Super Nova
Away Side
W W D L L
4W 1D 5L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals — Sunday, 24th May 2026
Best Odds 1.38
Confidence 77%
Implied Prob 72.5%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.38
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals80%
Implied Prob
72.5%
Based on 1.38 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+4.5%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
16.5%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
9
Riga
1
Draws
0
Super Nova
10
Meetings
70%
BTTS Rate
70%
Over 2.5
4.6
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Over 2.5 in 70% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Riga
Metric
Super Nova
3
Goals For / Game
1.1
1.2
Goals Against / Game
1.3
30%
Clean Sheet %
30%
7-3-0
W — D — L
4-1-5
Win Rate Comparison
70%
40%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
R0
0-0 3.7%
0-1 4.2%
0-2 2.4%
0-3 0.9%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
R1
1-0 7.9%
1-1 9.1%
1-2 5.2%
1-3 2.0%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
R2
2-0 8.5%
2-1 9.8%
2-2 5.6%
2-3 2.2%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
R3
3-0 6.1%
3-1 7.0%
3-2 4.0%
3-3 1.6%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
R4
4-0 3.3%
4-1 3.8%
4-2 2.2%
4-3 0.8%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
R5
5-0 1.4%
5-1 1.6%
5-2 0.9%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.8%) 1-1 (9.1%) 2-0 (8.5%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · R=Home goals ↓   S=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Riga
Overall
7.9
Scoring
10.0
Defence
6.0
Super Nova
Overall
4.3
Scoring
3.7
Defence
5.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 32%
Home Win & BTTS No 22%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Away Win & BTTS No 12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 35%
Home Win & Under 2.5 19%
Draw & Over 2.5 10%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 20%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
14.04.26VIR
Super Nova1
Riga FC4
30.08.25VIR
Super Nova2
Riga FC6
22.06.25VIR
Riga FC2
Super Nova0
01.05.25VIR
Super Nova1
Riga FC5
06.03.25VIR
Riga FC2
Super Nova0
29.10.23VIR
Riga FC1
Super Nova1
06.08.23VIR
Super Nova1
Riga FC5
31.05.23VIR
Riga FC5
Super Nova1
20.04.23VIR
Super Nova0
Riga FC4
30.09.22VIR
Super Nova1
Riga FC4
Recent Form
Riga
20.05.26VIR
Tukums 20001
Riga FC3
W
16.05.26VIR
Riga FC2
Jelgava2
D
12.05.26VIR
Riga FC4
Auda1
W
08.05.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils1
Riga FC3
W
03.05.26VIR
Riga FC1
FK Liepaja0
W
28.04.26VIR
RFS3
Riga FC3
D
22.04.26VIR
Riga FC4
Ogre United0
W
18.04.26VIR
Grobina0
Riga FC3
W
14.04.26VIR
Super Nova1
Riga FC4
W
09.04.26VIR
Riga FC3
Tukums 20003
D
Super Nova
20.05.26VIR
Grobina0
Super Nova2
W
16.05.26VIR
Super Nova3
Ogre United1
W
11.05.26VIR
Super Nova1
Tukums 20001
D
06.05.26VIR
Jelgava1
Super Nova0
L
01.05.26VIR
Super Nova1
Auda2
L
27.04.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils0
Super Nova1
W
23.04.26VIR
Super Nova1
FK Liepaja2
L
18.04.26VIR
RFS2
Super Nova0
L
14.04.26VIR
Super Nova1
Riga FC4
L
09.04.26VIR
Grobina0
Super Nova1
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Latvia Virsliga game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is Over 2.5, and it looks even better when you see the @1.38 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Riga vs Super Nova?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 77%.
What is Riga's current form?
Riga have won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Super Nova been performing recently?
Super Nova have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Riga lead with 9 wins versus Super Nova's 0, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
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