WON
Result: Riga FC 4-1 Auda
DirectWinPredict Latvia Virsliga Riga FC vs Auda
R

Riga FC

Home Side
W W D W W
7W 2D 1L
VS
4-1
Latvia Virsliga
A
Auda
Away Side
W W W W D
7W 1D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals — Tuesday, 12th May 2026
Best Odds 1.51
Confidence 87%
Implied Prob 66.2%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.51
Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals90%
Implied Prob
66.2%
Based on 1.51 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+20.8%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
61.5%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
7
Riga FC
2
Draws
1
Auda
10
Meetings
80%
BTTS Rate
90%
Over 2.5
3.7
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Over 2.5 in 90% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Riga FC
Metric
Auda
3.2
Goals For / Game
2.3
1.2
Goals Against / Game
1.1
40%
Clean Sheet %
30%
7-2-1
W — D — L
7-1-2
Win Rate Comparison
70%
70%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
R0
0-0 2.0%
0-1 3.5%
0-2 3.1%
0-3 1.8%
0-4 0.8%
0-5 0.3%
R1
1-0 4.4%
1-1 7.6%
1-2 6.7%
1-3 3.9%
1-4 1.7%
1-5 0.6%
R2
2-0 4.7%
2-1 8.2%
2-2 7.2%
2-3 4.2%
2-4 1.8%
2-5 0.6%
R3
3-0 3.4%
3-1 5.9%
3-2 5.1%
3-3 3.0%
3-4 1.3%
3-5 0.5%
R4
4-0 1.8%
4-1 3.2%
4-2 2.8%
4-3 1.6%
4-4 0.7%
4-5 0.3%
R5
5-0 0.8%
5-1 1.4%
5-2 1.2%
5-3 0.7%
5-4 0.3%
5-5 0.1%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (8.2%) 1-1 (7.6%) 2-2 (7.2%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · R=Home goals ↓   A=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Riga FC
Overall
7.6
Scoring
10.0
Defence
6.0
Auda
Overall
7.3
Scoring
7.7
Defence
6.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 29%
Home Win & BTTS No 16%
Draw & BTTS Yes 7%
Draw & BTTS No 4%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 29%
Away Win & BTTS No 16%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 36%
Home Win & Under 2.5 9%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 2%
Away Win & Over 2.5 36%
Away Win & Under 2.5 9%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
20.03.26VIR
Auda1
Riga FC2
17.02.26SC
Riga FC4
Auda1
29.10.25LC
Riga FC1
Auda2
13.09.25VIR
Riga FC6
Auda0
27.06.25VIR
Auda1
Riga FC3
05.05.25VIR
Auda1
Riga FC3
10.03.25VIR
Riga FC2
Auda2
14.09.24VIR
Auda2
Riga FC2
26.06.24VIR
Riga FC1
Auda0
05.05.24VIR
Auda1
Riga FC2
Recent Form
Riga FC
08.05.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils1
Riga FC3
W
03.05.26VIR
Riga FC1
FK Liepaja0
W
28.04.26VIR
RFS3
Riga FC3
D
22.04.26VIR
Riga FC4
Ogre United0
W
18.04.26VIR
Grobina0
Riga FC3
W
14.04.26VIR
Super Nova1
Riga FC4
W
09.04.26VIR
Riga FC3
Tukums 20003
D
04.04.26VIR
Jelgava0
Riga FC8
W
27.03.26CF
Legia3
Riga FC1
L
20.03.26VIR
Auda1
Riga FC2
W
Auda
07.05.26VIR
Auda7
Grobina0
W
01.05.26VIR
Super Nova1
Auda2
W
26.04.26VIR
Auda2
Tukums 20001
W
21.04.26VIR
Jelgava2
Auda3
W
17.04.26VIR
Ogre United1
Auda1
D
12.04.26VIR
Auda2
BFC Daugavpils3
L
08.04.26VIR
FK Liepaja1
Auda2
W
04.04.26VIR
RFS0
Auda1
W
20.03.26VIR
Auda1
Riga FC2
L
14.03.26VIR
Grobina0
Auda2
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Latvia Virsliga game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is Over 2.5, and it looks even better when you see the @1.51 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Riga FC vs Auda?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.51. Tip confidence rating: 87%.
What is Riga FC's current form?
Riga FC have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Auda been performing recently?
Auda have recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Riga FC lead with 7 wins versus Auda's 1, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 80%.
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