WON
Result: Linfield 3-1 Dungannon
DirectWinPredict NIFL Premiership Linfield vs Dungannon
L

Linfield

Home Side
L L L W D
3W 2D 5L
VS
3-1
NIFL Premiership
D
Dungannon
Away Side
W W L L L
3W 0D 7L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Linfield to win — Tuesday, 12th May 2026
Best Odds 1.41
Confidence 52%
Implied Prob 70.9%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Linfield to win
1.41
Over 1.5 Goals85%
Implied Prob
70.9%
Based on 1.41 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-18.9%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
8
Linfield
0
Draws
2
Dungannon
10
Meetings
40%
BTTS Rate
70%
Over 2.5
3.2
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Linfield won 8 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Linfield
Metric
Dungannon
1
Goals For / Game
1.1
1.5
Goals Against / Game
2.6
10%
Clean Sheet %
0%
3-2-5
W — D — L
3-0-7
Win Rate Comparison
30%
30%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
D0
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
L0
0-0 4.5%
0-1 5.9%
0-2 3.8%
0-3 1.7%
0-4 0.5%
0-5 0.1%
L1
1-0 8.1%
1-1 10.5%
1-2 6.9%
1-3 3.0%
1-4 1.0%
1-5 0.3%
L2
2-0 7.3%
2-1 9.5%
2-2 6.2%
2-3 2.7%
2-4 0.9%
2-5 0.2%
L3
3-0 4.4%
3-1 5.7%
3-2 3.7%
3-3 1.6%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
L4
4-0 2.0%
4-1 2.6%
4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.7%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
L5
5-0 0.7%
5-1 0.9%
5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.5%) 1-0 (8.1%) 2-0 (7.3%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · L=Home goals ↓   D=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Linfield Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Dungannon Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Linfield
Overall
3.6
Scoring
3.3
Defence
5.0
Dungannon
Overall
3.0
Scoring
3.7
Defence
1.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 24%
Home Win & BTTS No 19%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 24%
Away Win & BTTS No 19%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 26%
Home Win & Under 2.5 17%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 26%
Away Win & Under 2.5 17%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
07.04.26NIFL
Dungannon1
Linfield3
17.02.26NIFL
Dungannon1
Linfield4
10.02.26NIFL
Linfield6
Dungannon0
10.08.25NIFL
Linfield3
Dungannon0
04.07.25CHA
Linfield0
Dungannon1
12.04.25NIFL
Linfield2
Dungannon0
24.03.25NIFL
Dungannon0
Linfield3
17.12.24NIFL
Dungannon0
Linfield1
17.08.24NIFL
Linfield3
Dungannon1
27.01.24NIFL
Linfield1
Dungannon2
Recent Form
Linfield
25.04.26NIFL
Linfield1
Cliftonville2
L
18.04.26NIFL
Linfield0
Coleraine3
L
11.04.26NIFL
Linfield0
Larne2
L
07.04.26NIFL
Dungannon1
Linfield3
W
28.03.26NIFL
Glentoran1
Linfield1
D
20.03.26NIFL
Carrick Rangers2
Linfield0
L
15.03.26LC
Glentoran0
Linfield1
W
10.03.26NIFL
Linfield3
Portadown1
W
01.03.26NIFL
Cliftonville2
Linfield0
L
24.02.26NIFL
Larne1
Linfield1
D
Dungannon
09.05.26NIFL
Cliftonville1
Dungannon2
W
06.05.26NIFL
Dungannon3
Carrick Rangers1
W
02.05.26CUP
Dungannon2
Coleraine3
L
25.04.26NIFL
Larne8
Dungannon0
L
18.04.26NIFL
Cliftonville1
Dungannon0
L
11.04.26NIFL
Glentoran5
Dungannon0
L
07.04.26NIFL
Dungannon1
Linfield3
L
03.04.26CUP
Cliftonville1
Dungannon2
W
28.03.26NIFL
Dungannon1
Coleraine2
L
21.03.26NIFL
Dungannon0
Bangor FC1
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this NIFL Premiership game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.41 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Linfield vs Dungannon?
Our selection is 1 — Linfield to win, priced at approximately 1.41. Tip confidence rating: 52%.
What is Linfield's current form?
Linfield have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Dungannon been performing recently?
Dungannon have recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Linfield lead with 8 wins versus Dungannon's 2, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
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