LOST
Result: Real Madrid 1-1 Girona
DirectWinPredict La Liga Real Madrid vs Girona
R

Real Madrid

Home Side
L L W W W
5W 0D 5L
VS
1-1
La Liga
G
Girona
Away Side
W L W D L
3W 3D 3L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Real Madrid to win — Friday, 10th April 2026
Best Odds 1.34
Confidence 53%
Implied Prob 74.6%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Real Madrid to win
1.34
Over 2.5 Goals68% BTTS — Yes68%
Implied Prob
74.6%
Based on 1.34 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-21.6%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
6
Real Madrid
2
Draws
2
Girona
10
Meetings
60%
BTTS Rate
70%
Over 2.5
3.5
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Real Madrid won 6 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Real Madrid
Metric
Girona
1.8
Goals For / Game
1.2
1.4
Goals Against / Game
1
10%
Clean Sheet %
22%
5-0-5
W — D — L
3-3-3
Win Rate Comparison
50%
33%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
G0
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
R0
0-0 6.7%
0-1 8.7%
0-2 5.7%
0-3 2.5%
0-4 0.8%
0-5 0.2%
R1
1-0 9.4%
1-1 12.2%
1-2 8.0%
1-3 3.5%
1-4 1.1%
1-5 0.3%
R2
2-0 6.6%
2-1 8.6%
2-2 5.6%
2-3 2.4%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.2%
R3
3-0 3.1%
3-1 4.0%
3-2 2.6%
3-3 1.1%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
R4
4-0 1.1%
4-1 1.4%
4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
R5
5-0 0.3%
5-1 0.4%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (9.4%) 2-1 (8.6%) 2-0 (6.6%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · R=Home goals ↓   G=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Real Madrid Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Girona Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Real Madrid
Overall
5.0
Scoring
6.0
Defence
5.3
Girona
Overall
4.3
Scoring
4.1
Defence
6.7
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 35%
Home Win & BTTS No 16%
Draw & BTTS Yes 11%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 22%
Away Win & BTTS No 11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 35%
Home Win & Under 2.5 16%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 22%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
30.11.25
La Liga: Girona FC1
Real Madrid1
23.02.25
La Liga: Real Madrid2
Girona FC0
07.12.24
La Liga: Girona FC0
Real Madrid3
10.02.24
La Liga: Real Madrid4
Girona FC0
30.09.23
La Liga: Girona FC0
Real Madrid3
25.04.23
La Liga: Girona FC4
Real Madrid2
30.10.22
La Liga: Real Madrid1
Girona FC1
17.02.19
La Liga: Real Madrid1
Girona FC2
31.01.19
Copa del Rey: Girona FC1
Real Madrid3
24.01.19
Copa del Rey: Real Madrid4
Girona FC2
Recent Form
Real Madrid
07.04.26
Champions League (QF): Real Madrid1
Bayern Munich2
L
04.04.26
La Liga: RCD Mallorca2
Real Madrid1
L
22.03.26
La Liga: Real Madrid3
Atlético Madrid2
W
17.03.26
Champions League (R16): Manchester City1
Real Madrid2
W
14.03.26
La Liga: Real Madrid4
Elche1
W
11.03.26
Champions League (R16): Real Madrid3
Manchester City0
W
06.03.26
La Liga: Celta Vigo1
Real Madrid2
W
02.03.26
La Liga: Real Madrid0
Getafe1
L
25.02.26
Champions League (R16): Real Madrid2
Benfica1
W
21.02.26
La Liga: Osasuna2
Real Madrid1
L
Girona
06.04.26
La Liga: Girona FC1
Villarreal0
W
21.03.26
La Liga: Osasuna1
Girona FC0
L
14.03.26
La Liga: Girona FC3
Athletic Bilbao0
W
07.03.26
La Liga: Levante UD1
Girona FC1
D
01.03.26
La Liga: Girona FC1
Celta Vigo2
L
23.02.26
La Liga: Deportivo Alavés2
Girona FC2
D
16.02.26
La Liga: Girona FC2
Barcelona1
W
08.02.26
La Liga: Sevilla FC1
Girona FC1
D
31.01.26
La Liga: Real Oviedo1
Girona FC0
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this La Liga game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.34 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Real Madrid vs Girona?
Our selection is 1 — Real Madrid to win, priced at approximately 1.34. Tip confidence rating: 53%.
What is Real Madrid's current form?
Real Madrid have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Girona been performing recently?
Girona have recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from 9 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Real Madrid lead with 6 wins versus Girona's 2, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
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