WON

Result: Marseille 3-1 Metz

Marseille

Home Side

L L W W L

4W 2D 4L

3-1

Ligue 1

Metz

Away Side

D D L L L

0W 3D 7L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Marseille to win — Friday, 10th April 2026

Best Odds 1.28

Confidence 44%

Implied Prob 78.1%

50%

30%

20%

⚔ Head to Head Record

Marseille

Draws

Metz

Meetings

70%

BTTS Rate

50%

Over 2.5

Avg Goals

Against Pick Marseille won 4 of the last 10 meetings (6 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Marseille

Metric

Metz

1.4

Goals For / Game

0.6

1.7

Goals Against / Game

30%

Clean Sheet %

30%

4-2-4

W — D — L

0-3-7

Win Rate Comparison

40%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 5.8%

0-1 6.7%

0-2 3.8%

0-3 1.5%

0-4 0.4%

0-5 0.1%

1-0 9.8%

1-1 11.3%

1-2 6.5%

1-3 2.5%

1-4 0.7%

1-5 0.2%

2-0 8.4%

2-1 9.6%

2-2 5.5%

2-3 2.1%

2-4 0.6%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 4.7%

3-1 5.5%

3-2 3.1%

3-3 1.2%

3-4 0.4%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 2.0%

4-1 2.3%

4-2 1.3%

4-3 0.5%

4-4 0.2%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.7%

5-1 0.8%

5-2 0.5%

5-3 0.2%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (9.8%) 2-1 (9.6%) 2-0 (8.4%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · M=Home goals ↓ M=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Marseille Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Metz Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Marseille

Overall

4.6 —

Scoring

4.7 —

Defence

4.3 —

Metz

Overall

0.9 —

Scoring

2.0 —

Defence

3.3 —

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 25%

Home Win & BTTS No 37%

Draw & BTTS Yes 15%

Draw & BTTS No 23%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%

Away Win & BTTS No 0%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 37%

Home Win & Under 2.5 25%

Draw & Over 2.5 23%

Draw & Under 2.5 15%

Away Win & Over 2.5 0%

Away Win & Under 2.5 0%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

04.10.25

Ligue 1: Metz0

Marseille3

09.02.24

Ligue 1: Marseille1

Metz1

18.08.23

Ligue 1: Metz2

Marseille2

13.02.22

Ligue 1: Metz1

Marseille2

07.11.21

Ligue 1: Marseille0

Metz0

23.05.21

Ligue 1: Metz1

Marseille1

26.09.20

Ligue 1: Marseille1

Metz1

14.12.19

Ligue 1: Metz1

Marseille1

02.02.18

Ligue 1: Marseille6

Metz3

29.11.17

Ligue 1: Metz0

Marseille3

Recent Form

Marseille

05.04.26

Ligue 1: AS Monaco2

Marseille1

22.03.26

Ligue 1: Marseille1

LOSC Lille2

13.03.26

Ligue 1: Marseille1

AJ Auxerre0

07.03.26

Ligue 1: Toulouse FC0

Marseille1

04.03.26

Coupe de France: Marseille2

Toulouse FC - L (4-5 pens)2

01.03.26

Ligue 1: Marseille3

Lyon2

20.02.26

Ligue 1: Brest2

Marseille0

14.02.26

Ligue 1: Marseille2

Strasbourg2

08.02.26

Ligue 1: PSG5

Marseille0

03.02.26

Coupe de France: Marseille3

Rennes0

Metz

05.04.26

Ligue 1: Metz0

FC Nantes0

22.03.26

Ligue 1: Stade Rennais0

Metz0

15.03.26

Ligue 1: Metz3

Toulouse FC4

08.03.26

Ligue 1: RC Lens3

Metz0

01.03.26

Ligue 1: Metz0

Stade Brestois1

21.02.26

Ligue 1: PSG3

Metz0

15.02.26

Ligue 1: Metz1

AJ Auxerre3

06.02.26

Ligue 1: Metz0

LOSC Lille0

01.02.26

Ligue 1: Angers SCO1

Metz0

25.01.26

Ligue 1: Metz2

Olympique Lyonnais5

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Ligue 1 game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.28 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Marseille vs Metz?

Our selection is 1 — Marseille to win, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 44%.

What is Marseille's current form?

Marseille have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.

How has Metz been performing recently?

Metz have recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Marseille lead with 4 wins versus Metz's 0, with 6 draws across 10 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.

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