WON
Result: Real Madrid 2-1 Alaves
DirectWinPredict La Liga Real Madrid vs Alaves
R

Real Madrid

Home Side
L D L L W
4W 1D 5L
VS
2-1
La Liga
A
Alaves
Away Side
D D W D L
1W 5D 4L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Real Madrid to win — Tuesday, 21st April 2026
Best Odds 1.32
Confidence 57%
Implied Prob 75.8%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Head to Head Record
9
Real Madrid
1
Draws
0
Alaves
10
Meetings
50%
BTTS Rate
70%
Over 2.5
3.3
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Real Madrid won 9 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Real Madrid
Metric
Alaves
1.9
Goals For / Game
0
1.6
Goals Against / Game
0
10%
Clean Sheet %
0%
4-1-5
W — D — L
1-5-4
Win Rate Comparison
40%
10%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
R0
0-0 17.4%
0-1 13.9%
0-2 5.6%
0-3 1.5%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
R1
1-0 16.5%
1-1 13.2%
1-2 5.3%
1-3 1.4%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
R2
2-0 7.8%
2-1 6.3%
2-2 2.5%
2-3 0.7%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
R3
3-0 2.5%
3-1 2.0%
3-2 0.8%
3-3 0.2%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
R4
4-0 0.6%
4-1 0.5%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
R5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (16.5%) 2-0 (7.8%) 2-1 (6.3%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · R=Home goals ↓   A=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Real Madrid Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Alaves Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Real Madrid
Overall
4.3
Scoring
6.3
Defence
4.7
Alaves
Overall
2.5
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Home Win & BTTS No 30%
Draw & BTTS Yes 15%
Draw & BTTS No 23%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 5%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 20%
Home Win & Under 2.5 30%
Draw & Over 2.5 15%
Draw & Under 2.5 23%
Away Win & Over 2.5 5%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
14.12.25La Liga
Alavés1
Real Madrid2
13.04.25La Liga
Alavés0
Real Madrid1
24.09.24La Liga
Real Madrid3
Alavés2
14.05.24La Liga
Real Madrid5
Alavés0
21.12.23La Liga
Alavés0
Real Madrid1
19.02.22La Liga
Real Madrid3
Alavés0
14.08.21La Liga
Alavés1
Real Madrid4
23.01.21La Liga
Alavés1
Real Madrid4
28.11.20La Liga
Real Madrid1
Alavés2
10.07.20La Liga
Real Madrid2
Alavés0
Recent Form
Real Madrid
15.04.26Champions League
Bayern Munich4
Real Madrid3
L
10.04.26La Liga
Real Madrid1
Girona1
D
07.04.26Champions League
Real Madrid1
Bayern Munich2
L
04.04.26La Liga
Mallorca2
Real Madrid1
L
22.03.26La Liga
Real Madrid3
Atletico Madrid2
W
17.03.26Champions League
Manchester City1
Real Madrid2
W
14.03.26La Liga
Real Madrid4
Elche1
W
11.03.26Champions League
Real Madrid3
Manchester City0
W
06.03.26La Liga
Celta Vigo1
Real Madrid2
W
02.03.26La Liga
Real Madrid0
Getafe1
L
Alaves
11.04.26La Liga
Real Sociedad3
Alavés3
D
05.04.26La Liga
Alavés2
Osasuna2
D
22.03.26La Liga
Celta Vigo3
Alavés4
W
13.03.26La Liga
Alavés1
Villarreal1
D
08.03.26La Liga
Valencia3
Alavés2
L
27.02.26La Liga
Levante2
Alavés0
L
23.02.26La Liga
Alavés2
Girona2
D
14.02.26La Liga
Sevilla1
Alavés1
D
08.02.26La Liga
Alavés0
Getafe2
L
04.02.26Copa del Rey
Alavés2
Real Sociedad3
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Tuesday, 21st April 2026, Real Madrid host Alaves in La Liga. We recommend Real Madrid to win as the standout selection.

Real Madrid arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Alaves are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 5D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Real Madrid, who lead the head-to-head with 9 wins to Alaves's 0, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: real madrid to win at odds of 1.32 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this La Liga game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.32 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Real Madrid vs Alaves?
Our selection is 1 — Real Madrid to win, priced at approximately 1.32. Tip confidence rating: 57%.
What is Real Madrid's current form?
Real Madrid have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Alaves been performing recently?
Alaves have recorded 1 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Real Madrid lead with 9 wins versus Alaves's 0, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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