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Result: Man City 1-2 Aston Villa

Man City

Home Side

D W W W D

8W 2D 0L

1-2

Premier League

Aston Villa

Away Side

W W D W L

5W 2D 3L

DirectWinPredict Verdict

Backing Man City to win — Sunday, 24th May 2026

Best Odds 1.30

Confidence 62%

Implied Prob 76.9%

50%

30%

20%

⚡ Supporting Bets Extras

Primary Selection

1 — Man City to win

1.30

Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals80% Man City Clean Sheet60%

Implied Prob

76.9%

Based on 1.30 odds

Edge vs Bookmaker

-14.9%

Overpriced

Kelly Stake %

Suggested % of bankroll

⚔ Head to Head Record

Man City

Draws

Aston Villa

Meetings

80%

BTTS Rate

70%

Over 2.5

Avg Goals

Supports Pick Man City won 6 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).

📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison

Man City

Metric

Aston Villa

2.3

Goals For / Game

2.3

0.6

Goals Against / Game

1.2

60%

Clean Sheet %

30%

8-2-0

W — D — L

5-2-3

Win Rate Comparison

80%

50%

🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model

0-0 4.1%

0-1 5.9%

0-2 4.3%

0-3 2.1%

0-4 0.8%

0-5 0.2%

1-0 7.1%

1-1 10.3%

1-2 7.5%

1-3 3.6%

1-4 1.3%

1-5 0.4%

2-0 6.2%

2-1 9.1%

2-2 6.6%

2-3 3.2%

2-4 1.2%

2-5 0.3%

3-0 3.6%

3-1 5.3%

3-2 3.8%

3-3 1.9%

3-4 0.7%

3-5 0.2%

4-0 1.6%

4-1 2.3%

4-2 1.7%

4-3 0.8%

4-4 0.3%

4-5 0.1%

5-0 0.6%

5-1 0.8%

5-2 0.6%

5-3 0.3%

5-4 0.1%

5-5 0.0%

Top Predicted Scores 2-1 (9.1%) 1-0 (7.1%) 2-0 (6.2%)

■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · M=Home goals ↓ A=Away goals →

📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder

Man City Win

50%

Draw

30%

3.33

Aston Villa Win

20%

Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.

📈 Team Ratings Grades

Man City

Overall

8.6 ▲

Scoring

7.7 ▲

Defence

8.0 ▲

Aston Villa

Overall

5.6 ▼

Scoring

7.7 ▼

Defence

6.0 ▼

🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 24%

Home Win & BTTS No 29%

Draw & BTTS Yes 6%

Draw & BTTS No 7%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 15%

Away Win & BTTS No 19%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 37%

Home Win & Under 2.5 16%

Draw & Over 2.5 9%

Draw & Under 2.5 4%

Away Win & Over 2.5 24%

Away Win & Under 2.5 10%

🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool

Your Bankroll (₦ or any currency)

Decimal Odds

Win Probability (%)

Fraction (0.25 = Quarter Kelly)

—

Kelly %

—

Stake Amount

—

Potential Profit

Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.

📜 Match Archives History Log

Head to Head

26.10.25PL

Aston Villa1

Manchester City0

22.04.25PL

Manchester City2

Aston Villa1

21.12.24PL

Aston Villa2

Manchester City1

03.04.24PL

Manchester City4

Aston Villa1

06.12.23PL

Aston Villa1

Manchester City0

12.02.23PL

Manchester City3

Aston Villa1

03.09.22PL

Aston Villa1

Manchester City1

22.05.22PL

Manchester City3

Aston Villa2

01.12.21PL

Aston Villa1

Manchester City2

21.04.21PL

Aston Villa1

Manchester City2

Recent Form

Man City

19.05.26PL

Bournemouth1

Manchester City1

16.05.26FAC

Chelsea0

Manchester City1

13.05.26PL

Manchester City3

Crystal Palace0

09.05.26PL

Manchester City3

Brentford0

04.05.26PL

Everton3

Manchester City3

25.04.26FAC

Manchester City2

Southampton1

22.04.26PL

Burnley0

Manchester City1

19.04.26PL

Manchester City2

Arsenal1

12.04.26PL

Chelsea0

Manchester City3

04.04.26FAC

Manchester City4

Liverpool0

Aston Villa

20.05.26EL

Freiburg0

Aston Villa3

15.05.26PL

Aston Villa4

Liverpool2

10.05.26PL

Burnley2

Aston Villa2

07.05.26EL

Aston Villa4

Nottingham0

03.05.26PL

Aston Villa1

Tottenham2

30.04.26EL

Nottingham1

Aston Villa0

25.04.26PL

Fulham1

Aston Villa0

19.04.26PL

Aston Villa4

Sunderland3

16.04.26EL

Aston Villa4

Bologna0

12.04.26PL

Nottingham1

Aston Villa1

📝 Match Analysis Writeup

Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Premier League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.30 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

❓ Quick Answers FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Man City vs Aston Villa?

Our selection is 1 — Man City to win, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 62%.

What is Man City's current form?

Man City have won 8, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.

How has Aston Villa been performing recently?

Aston Villa have recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Man City lead with 6 wins versus Aston Villa's 3, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 80%.

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