WON
Result:
Lens 3-0 Metz
L
Lens
Home Side
W
D
L
W
W
3W 1D 1L
VS
3-0
M
Metz
Away Side
L
L
L
D
L
0W 1D 4L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Lens to win — Sunday, 8th March 2026
Best Odds
1.30
Confidence
50%
Implied Prob
76.9%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Head to Head
Record
2
Lens
1
Draws
2
Metz
5
Meetings
40%
BTTS Rate
40%
Over 2.5
1.8
Avg Goals
Against Pick
Lens won 2 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).
Key Stats Duel
Comparison
Lens
Metric
Metz
2.8
Goals For / Game
0.2
1.4
Goals Against / Game
1.6
20%
Clean Sheet %
20%
3-1-1
W — D — L
0-1-4
Win Rate Comparison
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
L0
0-0
5.0%
0-1
4.0%
0-2
1.6%
0-3
0.4%
0-4
0.1%
0-5
0.0%
L1
1-0
11.0%
1-1
8.8%
1-2
3.5%
1-3
0.9%
1-4
0.2%
1-5
0.0%
L2
2-0
12.1%
2-1
9.6%
2-2
3.9%
2-3
1.0%
2-4
0.2%
2-5
0.0%
L3
3-0
8.8%
3-1
7.1%
3-2
2.8%
3-3
0.8%
3-4
0.2%
3-5
0.0%
L4
4-0
4.9%
4-1
3.9%
4-2
1.6%
4-3
0.4%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
L5
5-0
2.1%
5-1
1.7%
5-2
0.7%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Predicted Scores
2-0 (12.1%)
1-0 (11.0%)
2-1 (9.6%)
■ Most likely (tip)
■ Possible (tip)
■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip
Poisson model · L=Home goals ↓ M=Away goals →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Lens Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Metz Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
38%
Home Win & BTTS No
38%
Draw & BTTS Yes
13%
Draw & BTTS No
13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
0%
Away Win & BTTS No
0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
45%
Home Win & Under 2.5
30%
Draw & Over 2.5
15%
Draw & Under 2.5
10%
Away Win & Over 2.5
0%
Away Win & Under 2.5
0%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake Amount
—
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
Match Archives
History Log
Head to Head
⚽ Ligue 1 (Oct 29, 2025): Metz1
Lens2
⚽ Club Friendly (Jul 25, 2024): Lens2
Metz0
⚽ Ligue 1 (Apr 12, 2024): Metz2
Lens1
⚽ Ligue 1 (Sep 16, 2023): Lens0
Metz1
⚽ Ligue 1 (Mar 13, 2022): Metz0
Lens0
Recent Form
Lens
⚽ CDF (Mar 5, 2026): Lyon2
Lens3
⚽ L1 (Feb 27, 2026): Strasbourg1
Lens1
⚽ L1 (Feb 21, 2026): Lens2
Monaco3
⚽ L1 (Feb 14, 2026): Paris FC0
Lens5
⚽ L1 (Feb 7, 2026): Lens3
Rennes1
Metz
⚽ L1 (Mar 1, 2026): Metz0
Brest1
⚽ L1 (Feb 21, 2026): PSG3
Metz0
⚽ L1 (Feb 15, 2026): Metz1
Auxerre3
⚽ L1 (Feb 6, 2026): Metz0
Lille0
⚽ L1 (Feb 1, 2026): Angers1
Metz0
Match Analysis
Writeup
Lens is the surprise package of the season, sitting 2nd in Ligue 1. They have turned the Stade Bollaert-Delelis into a “No-Go” zone for visitors, winning 10 of 12 home games. They have scored in 18 consecutive matches, showing incredible consistency.
Metz is at the opposite end of the spectrum, sitting 18th. They have lost 10 of their 12 away games this season. While Metz has historically been a “bogey team” for Lens (winning the last encounter 2-0), the current trajectories couldn’t be further apart. Lens is playing for a title/Champions League spot, while Metz is just trying to survive. Lens’s high intensity will likely overwhelm a Metz defense that concedes 2.2 goals per game on average.
- Form Watcher: Lens (W-W-D); Metz (L-D-L).
- Must Win: Lens (Title pressure).
- Prediction: Lens Win
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Lens vs Metz?
Our selection is 1 — Lens to win, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 50%.
What is Lens's current form?
Lens have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.
How has Metz been performing recently?
Metz have recorded 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Lens lead with 2 wins versus Metz's 2, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.