WON
Result:
CSKA Sofia 2-0 Lok Sofia
C
CSKA Sofia
Home Side
W
L
W
W
W
2W 0D 3L
VS
2-0
L
Lok Sofia
Away Side
W
L
D
L
W
2W 1D 2L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing CSKA Sofia to win — Sunday, 8th March 2026
Best Odds
1.45
Confidence
55%
Implied Prob
69%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Head to Head
Record
4
CSKA Sofia
1
Draws
0
Lok Sofia
5
Meetings
40%
BTTS Rate
40%
Over 2.5
2
Avg Goals
Supports Pick
CSKA Sofia won 4 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).
Key Stats Duel
Comparison
CSKA Sofia
Metric
Lok Sofia
0.6
Goals For / Game
2
1
Goals Against / Game
2
40%
Clean Sheet %
20%
2-0-3
W — D — L
2-1-2
Win Rate Comparison
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
L0
L1
L2
L3
L4
L5
C0
0-0
6.1%
0-1
9.1%
0-2
6.8%
0-3
3.4%
0-4
1.3%
0-5
0.4%
C1
1-0
7.9%
1-1
11.9%
1-2
8.9%
1-3
4.5%
1-4
1.7%
1-5
0.5%
C2
2-0
5.1%
2-1
7.7%
2-2
5.8%
2-3
2.9%
2-4
1.1%
2-5
0.3%
C3
3-0
2.2%
3-1
3.3%
3-2
2.5%
3-3
1.3%
3-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
C4
4-0
0.7%
4-1
1.1%
4-2
0.8%
4-3
0.4%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.1%
C5
5-0
0.2%
5-1
0.3%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Predicted Scores
1-0 (7.9%)
2-1 (7.7%)
2-0 (5.1%)
■ Most likely (tip)
■ Possible (tip)
■ Low (tip) · ■ Contradicts tip
Poisson model · C=Home goals ↓ L=Away goals →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
CSKA Sofia Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Lok Sofia Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
18%
Home Win & BTTS No
26%
Draw & BTTS Yes
4%
Draw & BTTS No
7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
18%
Away Win & BTTS No
27%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
18%
Home Win & Under 2.5
26%
Draw & Over 2.5
4%
Draw & Under 2.5
7%
Away Win & Over 2.5
18%
Away Win & Under 2.5
27%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake Amount
—
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
Match Archives
History Log
Head to Head
⚽ CUP (Dec 13, 2025): CSKA Sofia2
Lok. Sofia1
⚽ 1L (Sep 27, 2025): Lok. Sofia1
CSKA Sofia1
⚽ 1L (Apr 2, 2025): CSKA Sofia1
Lok. Sofia0
⚽ 1L (Sep 16, 2024): Lok. Sofia0
CSKA Sofia3
⚽ 1L (Mar 30, 2024): Lok. Sofia0
CSKA Sofia1
Recent Form
CSKA Sofia
⚽ 1L (Mar 4, 2026): CSKA Sofia1
Botev Vratsa0
⚽ 1L (Feb 28, 2026): Septemvri Sofia2
CSKA Sofia0
⚽ 1L (Feb 21, 2026): CSKA Sofia1
Slavia Sofia0
⚽ 1L (Feb 14, 2026): CSKA 1948 Sofia0
CSKA Sofia2
⚽ CUP (Feb 10, 2026): CSKA Sofia2
CSKA 1948 Sofia0
Lok Sofia
⚽ 1L (Mar 5, 2026): Lok. Sofia3
Dobrudzha1
⚽ 1L (Mar 1, 2026): Levski Sofia4
Lok. Sofia3
⚽ 1L (Feb 13, 2026): Spartak Varna2
Lok. Sofia2
⚽ 1L (Feb 7, 2026): Lok. Sofia1
Ludogorets3
⚽ CF (Jan 30, 2026): Lok. Sofia1
Svoge0
Match Analysis
Writeup
The Sofia derby sees a massive disparity in form. CSKA is 4th and has won four of its last five matches. They are historically dominant at the Vasil Levski National Stadium. Defensively, they are organized, and their matches against Lokomotiv are usually low-scoring, tactical affairs.
Lokomotiv Sofia is currently 9th and has been in a downward spiral, failing to win any of their recent outings. The H2H stats are telling: 80% of their recent meetings have seen under 2.5 goals. Lokomotiv will likely “park the bus” to salvage a point, but CSKA’s current momentum makes a home win the most logical outcome.
- Form Watcher: CSKA (W-W-W); Lokomotiv (L-L-D).
- H2H: Historically low-scoring; CSKA usually edges it.
- Prediction: CSKA Sofia Win
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for CSKA Sofia vs Lok Sofia?
Our selection is 1 — CSKA Sofia to win, priced at approximately 1.45. Tip confidence rating: 55%.
What is CSKA Sofia's current form?
CSKA Sofia have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
How has Lok Sofia been performing recently?
Lok Sofia have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
CSKA Sofia lead with 4 wins versus Lok Sofia's 0, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.