LOST
Result: Kapaz 1-0 Qarabag
DirectWinPredict Azerbaijan League Kapaz vs Qarabag
K

Kapaz

Home Side
D D L W L
2W 3D 5L
VS
1-0
Azerbaijan League
Q
Qarabag
Away Side
W W W D L
6W 1D 3L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
2
Backing Qarabag to win — Friday, 20th March 2026
Best Odds 1.24
Confidence 58%
Implied Prob 80.6%
H
20%
D
30%
A
50%
Head to Head Record
1
Kapaz
2
Draws
7
Qarabag
10
Meetings
40%
BTTS Rate
60%
Over 2.5
3.4
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Qarabag won 7 of 10 meetings.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Kapaz
Metric
Qarabag
0.9
Goals For / Game
2.3
1.2
Goals Against / Game
1.7
30%
Clean Sheet %
30%
2-3-5
W — D — L
6-1-3
Win Rate Comparison
20%
60%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
Q0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
K0
0-0 4.7%
0-1 8.3%
0-2 7.3%
0-3 4.2%
0-4 1.9%
0-5 0.7%
K1
1-0 6.2%
1-1 10.8%
1-2 9.4%
1-3 5.5%
1-4 2.4%
1-5 0.8%
K2
2-0 4.0%
2-1 7.0%
2-2 6.1%
2-3 3.6%
2-4 1.6%
2-5 0.6%
K3
3-0 1.7%
3-1 3.0%
3-2 2.7%
3-3 1.6%
3-4 0.7%
3-5 0.2%
K4
4-0 0.6%
4-1 1.0%
4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
K5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-2 (9.4%) 0-1 (8.3%) 0-2 (7.3%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · K=Home goals ↓   Q=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Kapaz Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Qarabag Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Kapaz
Overall
2.9
Scoring
3.0
Defence
6.0
Qarabag
Overall
6.3
Scoring
7.7
Defence
4.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Home Win & BTTS No 10%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Away Win & BTTS No 30%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 11%
Home Win & Under 2.5 9%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 33%
Away Win & Under 2.5 27%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
24.01.26
PL: Qarabag0
Kapaz2
04.10.25
PL: Qarabag1
Kapaz0
18.05.25
PL: Qarabag3
Kapaz0
15.03.25
PL: Kapaz0
Qarabag0
18.10.24
PL: Kapaz0
Qarabag5
09.08.24
PL: Qarabag3
Kapaz0
29.03.24
PL: Kapaz1
Qarabag6
27.01.24
PL: Kapaz1
Qarabag2
04.11.23
PL: Qarabag7
Kapaz1
27.08.23
PL: Qarabag1
Kapaz1
Recent Form
Kapaz
15.03.26
PL: Kapaz1
Turan Tovuz1
D
09.03.26
PL: Zira2
Kapaz2
D
05.03.26
CUP: Kapaz0
Turan Tovuz2
L
27.02.26
PL: Kapaz3
Sumqayit0
W
22.02.26
PL: Sabah Baku1
Kapaz0
L
15.02.26
PL: Kapaz1
Neftci Baku3
L
09.02.26
PL: Imisli FK0
Kapaz0
D
05.02.26
CUP: Turan Tovuz1
Kapaz0
L
31.01.26
PL: Kapaz0
Shamakhi2
L
24.01.26
PL: Qarabag0
Kapaz2
W
Qarabag
14.03.26
PL: Zira1
Qarabag3
W
08.03.26
PL: Qarabag6
Araz0
W
04.03.26
CUP: Qarabag3
Shamakhi1
W
01.03.26
PL: Qarabag3
Sabah Baku3
D
24.02.26
CL: Newcastle3
Qarabag2
L
18.02.26
CL: Qarabag1
Newcastle6
L
14.02.26
PL: Imisli FK0
Qarabag1
W
10.02.26
PL: Shamakhi1
Qarabag2
W
05.02.26
CUP: Shamakhi2
Qarabag1
L
01.02.26
PL: Qarabag1
Turan Tovuz0
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Friday, 20th March 2026, Kapaz host Qarabag in Azerbaijan League. We recommend Qarabag to win as the standout selection.

Kapaz arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Qarabag are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 1D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Kapaz, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Qarabag's 7, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: qarabag to win at odds of 1.24 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Azerbaijan League game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 2, and it looks even better when you see the @1.24 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Kapaz vs Qarabag?
Our selection is 2 — Qarabag to win, priced at approximately 1.24. Tip confidence rating: 58%.
What is Kapaz's current form?
Kapaz have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Qarabag been performing recently?
Qarabag have recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Kapaz lead with 1 wins versus Qarabag's 7, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
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