WON
Result: Ammanford 1-0 Baglan Dragons
DirectWinPredict Wales Cymru South Ammanford vs Baglan Dragons
A

Ammanford

Home Side
W W L W D
6W 1D 3L
VS
1-0
Wales Cymru South
B
Baglan Dragons
Away Side
L L W L L
2W 2D 6L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
1
Backing Ammanford to win — Friday, 20th March 2026
Best Odds 1.31
Confidence 56%
Implied Prob 76.3%
H
50%
D
30%
A
20%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Ammanford to win
1.31
Over 2.5 Goals65%
Implied Prob
76.3%
Based on 1.31 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
-20.3%
Overpriced
Kelly Stake %
0%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
3
Ammanford
2
Draws
0
Baglan Dragons
5
Meetings
60%
BTTS Rate
60%
Over 2.5
3
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Ammanford won 3 of the last 5 meetings (2 draws).
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Ammanford
Metric
Baglan Dragons
1.5
Goals For / Game
0.7
1.4
Goals Against / Game
2
40%
Clean Sheet %
20%
6-1-3
W — D — L
2-2-6
Win Rate Comparison
60%
20%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
A0
0-0 6.1%
0-1 6.4%
0-2 3.4%
0-3 1.2%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
A1
1-0 10.6%
1-1 11.2%
1-2 5.9%
1-3 2.1%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
A2
2-0 9.3%
2-1 9.8%
2-2 5.1%
2-3 1.8%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
A3
3-0 5.4%
3-1 5.7%
3-2 3.0%
3-3 1.1%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
A4
4-0 2.4%
4-1 2.5%
4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 0.8%
5-1 0.9%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-0 (10.6%) 2-1 (9.8%) 2-0 (9.3%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · A=Home goals ↓   B=Away goals →
📉 Market Odds Intelligence Value Finder
Ammanford Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Baglan Dragons Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on our probability model. Compare with bookmaker lines for value.
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Ammanford
Overall
6.3
Scoring
5.0
Defence
5.3
Baglan Dragons
Overall
2.6
Scoring
2.3
Defence
3.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 28%
Home Win & BTTS No 35%
Draw & BTTS Yes 7%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 9%
Away Win & BTTS No 12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 41%
Home Win & Under 2.5 22%
Draw & Over 2.5 10%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 14%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
28.11.25
FAW: Baglan Dragons0
Ammanford3
12.04.25
FAW: Ammanford1
Baglan Dragons1
18.08.24
FAW: Baglan Dragons0
Ammanford2
17.02.24
FAW: Baglan Dragons1
Ammanford3
08.12.23
FAW: Ammanford2
Baglan Dragons2
Recent Form
Ammanford
14.03.26
FAW: Llantwit Major2
Ammanford3
W
06.03.26
FAW: Ammanford2
Cardiff Draconians1
W
01.03.26
FAW: Afan Lido3
Ammanford1
L
24.02.26
FAW: Ammanford2
Aberystwyth1
W
13.02.26
FAW: Ammanford0
Trethomas Bluebirds0
D
07.02.26
FAW: Caerau Ely3
Ammanford1
L
23.01.26
FAW: Ammanford0
Trefelin4
L
09.01.26
FAW: Pontypridd0
Ammanford3
W
03.01.26
FAW: Ammanford2
Ynyshir Albions0
W
26.12.25
FAW: Carmarthen Town0
Ammanford1
W
Baglan Dragons
17.03.26
FAW: Treowen4
Baglan Dragons1
L
14.03.26
FAW: Baglan Dragons0
Caerau Ely5
L
06.03.26
FAW: Newport City1
Baglan Dragons2
W
21.02.26
FAW: Pontypridd2
Baglan Dragons0
L
17.02.26
FAW: Trefelin3
Baglan Dragons0
L
14.02.26
FAW: Cardiff Draconians3
Baglan Dragons1
L
07.02.26
FAW: Baglan Dragons0
Aberystwyth1
L
24.01.26
FAW: Ynyshir Albions0
Baglan Dragons0
D
03.01.26
FAW: Llantwit Major0
Baglan Dragons0
D
26.12.25
FAW: Baglan Dragons3
Afan Lido1
W
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Friday, 20th March 2026, Ammanford host Baglan Dragons in Wales Cymru South. We recommend Ammanford to win as the standout selection.

Ammanford arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Baglan Dragons are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 2D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Ammanford, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Baglan Dragons's 0, with 2 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: ammanford to win at odds of 1.31 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Wales Cymru South game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is 1, and it looks even better when you see the @1.31 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Ammanford vs Baglan Dragons?
Our selection is 1 — Ammanford to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 56%.
What is Ammanford's current form?
Ammanford have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Baglan Dragons been performing recently?
Baglan Dragons have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Ammanford lead with 3 wins versus Baglan Dragons's 0, with 2 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
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