WON
Result: Italy W 3-0 Serbia W
DirectWinPredict Euro Women WCQ Italy W vs Serbia W
I

Italy W

Home Side
D W D L L
2W 3D 5L
VS
3-0
Euro Women WCQ
S
Serbia W
Away Side
L L D L W
3W 2D 5L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals — Friday, 5th June 2026
Best Odds 1.38
Confidence 78%
Implied Prob 72.5%
Head to Head Record
1
Italy W
0
Draws
0
Serbia W
1
Meetings
0%
BTTS Rate
100%
Over 2.5
6
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Over 2.5 in 100% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Italy W
Metric
Serbia W
1.1
Goals For / Game
1
1.2
Goals Against / Game
2
20%
Clean Sheet %
20%
2-3-5
W — D — L
3-2-5
Win Rate Comparison
20%
30%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
I0
0-0 7.1%
0-1 7.8%
0-2 4.3%
0-3 1.6%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
I1
1-0 11.0%
1-1 12.1%
1-2 6.6%
1-3 2.4%
1-4 0.7%
1-5 0.2%
I2
2-0 8.5%
2-1 9.3%
2-2 5.1%
2-3 1.9%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
I3
3-0 4.4%
3-1 4.8%
3-2 2.7%
3-3 1.0%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
I4
4-0 1.7%
4-1 1.9%
4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
I5
5-0 0.5%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-1 (12.1%) 1-0 (11.0%) 2-1 (9.3%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · I=Home goals ↓   S=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Italy W
Overall
2.9
Scoring
3.7
Defence
6.0
Serbia W
Overall
3.6
Scoring
3.3
Defence
3.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Home Win & BTTS No 15%
Draw & BTTS Yes 15%
Draw & BTTS No 18%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Away Win & BTTS No 22%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 14%
Home Win & Under 2.5 14%
Draw & Over 2.5 17%
Draw & Under 2.5 17%
Away Win & Over 2.5 20%
Away Win & Under 2.5 20%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
14.04.26WC
Serbia W0
Italy6
Recent Form
Italy W
18.04.26WC
Denmark W0
Italy W0
D
14.04.26WC
Serbia W0
Italy W6
W
07.03.26WC
Italy W1
Denmark W1
D
03.03.26WC
Italy W0
Sweden W1
L
02.12.25FI
USA W2
Italy W0
L
29.11.25FI
USA W3
Italy W0
L
28.10.25FI
Italy W0
Brazil W1
L
24.10.25FI
Italy W1
Japan W1
D
22.07.25EUR
England W2
Italy W1
L
16.07.25EUR
Norway W1
Italy W2
W
Serbia W
18.04.26WC
Sweden W1
Serbia W0
L
14.04.26WC
Serbia W0
Italy W6
L
07.03.26WC
Serbia W0
Sweden W0
D
03.03.26WC
Denmark W3
Serbia W1
L
02.12.25FI
Serbia W2
Czech Republic W1
W
28.11.25FI
Czech Republic W0
Serbia W1
W
27.10.25FI
Slovenia W2
Serbia W4
W
01.07.25FI
Serbia W0
Russia W3
L
27.06.25FI
Serbia W1
Iceland W3
L
03.06.25UNL
Finland W1
Serbia W1
D
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Friday, 5th June 2026, Italy W host Serbia W in Euro Women WCQ. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Italy W arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Serbia W are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 2D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Italy W, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Serbia W's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.38 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Euro Women WCQ game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is Over 2.5, and it looks even better when you see the @1.38 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Italy W vs Serbia W?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 78%.
What is Italy W's current form?
Italy W have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Serbia W been performing recently?
Serbia W have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Italy W lead with 1 wins versus Serbia W's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
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