WON
Result: Istra 1961 1-3 Hadjuk Split
DirectWinPredict Croatia HNL Istra 1961 vs Hadjuk Split
I

Istra 1961

Home Side
W W L L L
3W 1D 6L
VS
1-3
Croatia HNL
H
Hadjuk Split
Away Side
W W L L D
5W 1D 4L
DirectWinPredict Verdict
Over 1.5
Backing over 1.5 goals — Tuesday, 7th April 2026
Best Odds 1.24
Confidence 84%
Implied Prob 80.6%
Supporting Bets Extras
Primary Selection
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.24
Over 1.5 Goals80%
Implied Prob
80.6%
Based on 1.24 odds
Edge vs Bookmaker
+3.4%
Value exists
Kelly Stake %
17.3%
Suggested % of bankroll
Head to Head Record
2
Istra 1961
4
Draws
4
Hadjuk Split
10
Meetings
60%
BTTS Rate
30%
Over 2.5
2.1
Avg Goals
Supports Pick Over 1.5 in 80% of H2H.
📊 Key Stats Duel Comparison
Istra 1961
Metric
Hadjuk Split
1
Goals For / Game
1.8
1.6
Goals Against / Game
1.1
10%
Clean Sheet %
40%
3-1-6
W — D — L
5-1-4
Win Rate Comparison
30%
50%
🎯 Score Probability Matrix Poisson Model
H0
H1
H2
H3
H4
H5
I0
0-0 6.4%
0-1 10.9%
0-2 9.2%
0-3 5.2%
0-4 2.2%
0-5 0.8%
I1
1-0 6.7%
1-1 11.4%
1-2 9.7%
1-3 5.5%
1-4 2.3%
1-5 0.8%
I2
2-0 3.5%
2-1 6.0%
2-2 5.1%
2-3 2.9%
2-4 1.2%
2-5 0.4%
I3
3-0 1.2%
3-1 2.1%
3-2 1.8%
3-3 1.0%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.2%
I4
4-0 0.3%
4-1 0.6%
4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
I5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Predicted Scores 1-1 (11.4%) 0-1 (10.9%) 1-2 (9.7%)
■ Most likely (tip) ■ Possible (tip) ■ Low (tip)  ·  ■ Contradicts tip Poisson model · I=Home goals ↓   H=Away goals →
📈 Team Ratings Grades
Istra 1961
Overall
3.3
Scoring
3.3
Defence
4.7
Hadjuk Split
Overall
5.3
Scoring
6.0
Defence
6.3
🔀 Combination Markets Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Home Win & BTTS No 17%
Draw & BTTS Yes 6%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 28%
Away Win & BTTS No 28%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 17%
Home Win & Under 2.5 17%
Draw & Over 2.5 6%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 28%
Away Win & Under 2.5 28%
🧮 Stake Calculator Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake Amount
Potential Profit
Kelly Criterion helps size bets to maximise long-run bankroll growth. Use Quarter or Half Kelly for safer, reduced-variance staking. This is a tool, not financial advice.
📜 Match Archives History Log
Head to Head
25.01.26
HNL: Hajduk Split1
Istra 19612
19.10.25
HNL: Istra 19610
Hajduk Split3
03.08.25
HNL: Hajduk Split2
Istra 19611
23.04.25
HNL: Hajduk Split0
Istra 19611
15.02.25
HNL: Istra 19611
Hajduk Split1
09.11.24
HNL: Hajduk Split1
Istra 19611
25.08.24
HNL: Istra 19611
Hajduk Split1
12.05.24
HNL: Istra 19611
Hajduk Split1
02.03.24
HNL: Hajduk Split1
Istra 19610
26.11.23
HNL: Istra 19610
Hajduk Split2
Recent Form
Istra 1961
20.03.26
HNL: NK Istra 19612
NK Varaždin1
W
15.03.26
HNL: HNK Rijeka0
NK Istra 19612
W
06.03.26
HNL: NK Istra 19610
NK Osijek1
L
27.02.26
HNL: Slaven Belupo1
NK Istra 19610
L
21.02.26
HNL: NK Istra 19610
HNK Gorica2
L
14.02.26
HNL: Dinamo Zagreb4
NK Istra 19610
L
07.02.26
HNL: HNK Vukovar 19913
NK Istra 19612
L
30.01.26
HNL: NK Istra 19611
NK Lokomotiva1
D
25.01.26
HNL: Hajduk Split1
NK Istra 19612
W
20.01.26
HNL: NK Istra 19611
HNK Rijeka2
L
Hadjuk Split
21.03.26
HNL: Vukovar 19910
Hajduk Split6
W
15.03.26
HNL: Hajduk Split2
NK Lokomotiva1
W
08.03.26
HNL: Hajduk Split1
Dinamo Zagreb3
L
04.03.26
Croatian Cup: HNK Rijeka3
Hajduk Split2
L
28.02.26
HNL: NK Varaždin1
Hajduk Split1
D
22.02.26
HNL: Hajduk Split1
HNK Rijeka0
W
15.02.26
HNL: NK Osijek0
Hajduk Split2
W
07.02.26
HNL: Hajduk Split2
Slaven Belupo0
W
31.01.26
HNL: HNK Gorica1
Hajduk Split0
L
25.01.26
HNL: Hajduk Split1
Istra 19612
L
📝 Match Analysis Writeup

On Tuesday, 7th April 2026, Istra 1961 host Hadjuk Split in Croatia HNL. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.

Istra 1961 arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Hadjuk Split are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 1D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Istra 1961, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Hadjuk Split's 4, with 4 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.24 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Finding a winning bet is all about looking past the obvious names on the team sheets, and this Croatia HNL game is a great spot for smart money. You have to drop your personal favorites and let the cold, hard facts guide where you put your cash. The home team’s starting odds based on their whole season, but we always like to look a lot closer.

Their last few games show the absolute truth about their scoring power and their current defensive struggles. We do the exact same thing for the visitors to make sure nothing is missed. By matching up their long-term record with their recent form, we can see if the betting markets are heavily underestimating them today.

It is also super important to look at past meetings between the two clubs. Sometimes, one team simply knows exactly how to beat the other, and past results show that clearly if you bother to look. When you put that history right next to current form, the right bet practically jumps off the page.

The standout choice for us is Over 1.5, and it looks even better when you see the @1.24 odds. We have done all the heavy math, and now we just wait for the final whistle to prove it. Do not miss out on the other daily predictions we have up today.

Quick Answers FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Istra 1961 vs Hadjuk Split?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.24. Tip confidence rating: 84%.
What is Istra 1961's current form?
Istra 1961 have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches.
How has Hadjuk Split been performing recently?
Hadjuk Split have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Istra 1961 lead with 2 wins versus Hadjuk Split's 4, with 4 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
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